伦敦，11月2日——阿尔斯通正在脱轨。这家70亿欧元的铁路制造商股价周一下跌超过25%，此前该公司今年第二次下调业绩预期。但这家法国集团的困境也将目光投向了一种奇特的混合债务，其市场可能发展过快。
LONDON, Nov 2 - Alstom is veering off the track. The €7 billion rail manufacturer’s shares fell over 25% on Monday after cutting its outlook for the second time this year. But the French group's travails also shine a spotlight on a funky sort of hybrid debt, whose market may have grown too quickly.
阿尔斯通似乎陷入了长期的扭转困境。两年前，该集团因自由现金流疲软以及收购庞巴迪列车资产的遗留问题而发行股票和所谓的企业混合债券。由于后者是永续债，并具有延期偿还本金的能力，评级机构将其视为部分类似于股权。这使得它们对阿尔斯通这样的公司很有用，这些公司希望减轻对股东的现金要求，而又不威胁其投资级信用评级。
Alstom seems stuck in perennial turnaround. Two years ago the group, stung by weak free cash flow and the legacy of its acquisition of Bombardier's trains assets, issued shares and so-called corporate hybrid bonds. Because the latter are perpetual and sport the ability to defer principal payments, rating firms view them as partially akin to equity. That makes them useful for companies like Alstom, which want to ease the burden of cash calls on shareholders without threatening their investment grade credit scores.
两年过去了，阿尔斯通的问题远未解决：周一，该公司再次发布盈利预警，原因是列车销售延迟，导致自由现金流和经营利润率转为负值。新任首席执行官马丁·西昂表示，他计划在未来一年内通过出售资产等措施削减20亿欧元的债务，但根据LSEG的价格，该集团短期混合债券的价格仍下跌了近3个百分点，降至面值的98%以下。
Two years on, Alstom’s issues are far from fixed: on Monday it issued a further profit warning due to delayed train sales that have turned free cash flow and operating margins negative. New CEO Martin Sion said he would aim to cut debt by €2 billion over the next year via measures like asset sales, but the price of the group's shorter-dated hybrid bonds still fell nearly 3 percentage points to just under 98% of face value, per LSEG prices.
这是从2月份面值106%的高点下跌，自那时起，该混合债券的收益率已上升超过2个百分点。高利率解释了部分原因，但人们对阿尔斯通风险性的认知增加是另一个关键因素。
That's from a peak of 106% of face value in February, since when the hybrid's yield has risen by over 2 percentage points. Higher rates explain part of this, but an increase in Alstom’s perceived riskiness is another key factor.
这家法国集团或许仍能找到出路。对列车的需求正在增长，该集团的订单与销售比率在9月份仍稳定在1.2倍，西昂认为问题特定于双层列车部门科拉迪亚麦克斯。如果他能剥离必要的资产并保持阿尔斯通的投资级评级，那么打击的主要负担将由股东而非债券持有人承担。
The French group may yet find a way through. Demand for trains is growing, with the group’s ratio of orders to sales holding firm at 1.2 times in September, and Sion reckons the problems are specific to the double-decker train unit Coradia Max. If he can shed what he needs to and preserve Alstom's investment grade rating, the brunt of the hit will be borne by shareholders rather than bondholders.
尽管如此，混合投资者应从今年的困境中吸取教训。这些证券之所以繁荣，部分原因是投资者追逐收益率，根据摩根大通的数据，流通量现已超过2000亿欧元。但近年来，该领域也已从由安静的公用事业公司主导的行业，演变为斯泰兰蒂斯等更具周期性或资本密集型企业所使用的领域。对投资者而言，这些债券看似“免费午餐”——由于这些证券仍属于一种债务，因此几乎没有风险就能获得额外收益率。
Still, hybrid investors should take a lesson from this year’s travails. The securities have boomed in part as investors chased yield, with outstanding volumes now exceeding €200 billion on JPMorgan figures. But in recent years it has also evolved from a sector dominated by sleepy utilities to one used by more cyclical or capital-intensive businesses like Stellantis For investors, these bonds look like a free lunch - extra yield for little risk, given the securities are still a kind of debt.
与此同时，发行人则能从将其部分计入权益以及信用评级中获益。然而，该领域往往波动较大：当发行人陷入困境时，价格会下跌，因为市场担忧他们不会遵守债务市场惯例提前偿还债券。投资者越来越认为，市场可能难以正确定价风险——而今年至今发行量中，约三分之一来自尚未经过检验的新发行人，这构成了一个问题。阿尔斯通可能远非最后一家陷入困境的发行人。关注@Unmack1
Issuers, meanwhile, get the benefit of booking them as partial equity in their accounts, and ratings. Yet the sector also tends to be volatile: prices fall when issuers struggle due to fears they won't honour debt-market conventions to repay bonds early. Investors have increasingly argued that the market may be struggling to price risks properly - a problem, given new untested issuers make up about a third of issuance so far this year. Alstom may be far from the last issuer to come unstuck. Follow @Unmack1