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希腊预计未来20年出生人数将不足140万Greece projected to record fewer than 1.4M births over next 20 years

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据《托维马报》周一援引人口统计研究报道,希腊预计在2027年至2046年间将记录不足140万例出生,低于前20年的180万例。

Greece is projected to record fewer than 1.4 million births between 2027 and 2046, down from 1.8 million in the previous two decades, Tovima newspaper reported on Monday, citing demographic research.

该预测假设没有正向净移民,并反映了生育率下降以及育龄妇女人口减少。

The projection assumes no positive net migration and reflects declining fertility alongside a shrinking population of women of childbearing age.

该研究由色萨利大学人口学教授、人口研究所所长拜伦·科察马尼斯进行。

The study was conducted by Byron Kotzamanis, a demography professor at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies.

根据研究,预计2026年全年出生人数将在6.5万左右,而1951年至1980年间的年均出生人数约为15万。

Annual births are expected to total around 65,000 in 2026, compared with an average of approximately 150,000 between 1951 and 1980, according to the research.

预计2021年至2030年间出生人数将不足70万,而前十年为92万,降幅约25%。

Fewer than 700,000 births are projected between 2021 and 2030, compared with 920,000 in the previous decade, representing a decline of roughly 25%.

研究发现,1930年出生的女性平均生育近2.3个孩子,而1985年出生的女性不足1.5个。

Women born in 1930 had an average of nearly 2.3 children, compared with fewer than 1.5 among those born in 1985, the study found.

科察马尼斯将希腊与西欧和北欧国家的生育差距部分归因于家庭支持、性别平衡以及平衡就业与育儿条件的差异。

Kotzamanis attributed part of Greece's fertility gap with Western and Northern European countries to differences in family support, gender equality and conditions for balancing employment with parenthood.

尽管部分人口压力可能放缓,但根据研究,出生人数预计将继续下降。

Despite a possible slowdown in some demographic pressures, births are expected to continue declining, according to the research.

科察马尼斯警告称,随着更小规模的世代进入育龄期,2046年后的人口前景可能恶化。

Kotzamanis warned that the demographic outlook beyond 2046 could worsen as smaller generations reach childbearing age.

他指出,2009年至2026年间出生人数下降了45%,减少了未来潜在父母一代的规模。

He noted that births fell by 45% between 2009 and 2026, reducing the size of future generations of potential parents.

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