Electric Trucks Exceed 50% of China's Heavy-Duty Sales in September 2026, Cutting Diesel Demand

2026年9月，尽管中国重卡市场整体萎缩21%，但电动重卡销量仍逆势同比增长37%，达3.31万辆，在重卡总销量中的占比达50.3%。在换电基础设施普及与更具优势的综合拥有成本驱动下，2026年前9个月电动重卡累计市场份额已升至38.1%。大宗商品数据追踪机构开普勒（Kpler）预计，电动卡车的迅猛普及叠加此前液化天然气卡车的推广，将在2026年全年使中国的柴油需求减少约23万桶/日。在中国加速超越国家2030年既定目标的同时，欧美商用车车队的电动化仍处于初级阶段，欧洲的渗透率仅为2.5%，美国更不足1%。

Electric models reached 50.3% of heavy truck sales in China in September 2026, totaling 33,100 units and climbing 37% year-over-year despite a 21% contraction in the broader heavy truck sector. Driven by battery-swapping infrastructure and favorable total cost of ownership, electric trucks captured a 38.1% market share through the first nine months of 2026. This rapid adoption, alongside earlier liquefied natural gas truck deployment, is projected by commodity tracker Kpler to reduce China's diesel demand by approximately 230,000 barrels per day across 2026. While China accelerates past state 2030 targets, electric adoption in commercial fleets remains comparatively nascent in Europe at 2.5% and below 1% in the United States.