美国肥料价格飙升，特立尼达和多巴哥的出口下降加剧了全球市场的紧张局势，推高了农民的成本，并导致共和党在周二中期选举前夕在农业地带面临政治脆弱性。
Fertilizer prices are surging in the United States, as falling exports from Trinidad and Tobago add to a tight global market, raising costs for farmers and contributing to Republican political vulnerability in the farm belt ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
涨价给面临秋季收获季节高昂柴油价格以及对中国对美国谷物和肉类需求疲软感到失望的食品生产商带来了压力。
The increase adds pressure on food producers facing sky-high diesel prices during the autumn harvest season and disappointment over China's slow demand for US grains and meat.
行业分析人士表示，中西部氨气价格在6月下旬至10月上旬期间上涨了30%以上，从每短吨约600美元上涨到约800美元。大宗商品咨询公司CRU的北美首席肥料分析师贾斯汀·拉特克利夫表示，价格此后已攀升至每短吨约875美元。氨气用于制造氮肥，是玉米等作物的关键投入品。
Midwest ammonia prices climbed more than 30% between late June and early October, rising from about $600 per short ton to around $800, industry analysts said. Prices have since climbed to around $875 per short ton, said Justin Ratcliff, principal North American fertilizer analyst at commodities consultancy CRU. Ammonia is used to make nitrogen fertilizer, a critical input for corn and other crops.
全球市场紧张正在推动涨价，包括中东的供应冲击以及特立尼达和多巴哥多年的产量下降，该国历史上一直是美国农业的主要供应国。
A tightening global market is driving the increase, including supply shocks in the Middle East and years of declining production in Trinidad and Tobago, historically a major supplier to US agriculture.
特立尼达是加拿大之后美国氨气的第二大供应国，但其行业一直受到用于制造氨肥的天然气短缺的持续制约。
Trinidad is the second-largest supplier of ammonia to the US after Canada, but its industry has been steadily constrained by a shortage of natural gas used to make ammonia fertilizer.
特立尼达的天然气产量因油田老化和新发现有限而下降。直到今年早些时候，美国逮捕了前委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗之前，该岛屿一直因制裁无法从邻国委内瑞拉购买天然气。
Trinidad's natural gas production has declined because of aging fields and limited new discoveries. Until early this year, when the US arrested former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the island was unable to buy gas from neighboring Venezuela because of sanctions.
分析人士预计，在主要肥料生产商纽特里恩上个月因持续的天然气供应问题无限期关闭其在特立尼达的氮肥业务后，该国的限制将进一步恶化。
Analysts expect the country's constraints to worsen after Nutrien, a major fertilizer producer, indefinitely shut down its nitrogen operations in Trinidad last month due to continuing gas supply problems.
通常，美国大部分无水氨供应来自特立尼达，经墨西哥湾运抵，再由驳船沿美国河道运往农户，咨询公司StoneX肥料部副总裁乔什·林维尔说。在全球市场本已紧张的情况下，供应损失的影响会波及整个肥料供应链。
Usually, much of the US supply of anhydrous ammonia comes from Trinidad into the Gulf of Mexico and is transported by barge up the US river system to farmers, said Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizers at consultancy StoneX. When supply is lost in an already tight global market, the effects ripple throughout the fertilizer supply chain.
特立尼达向美国出口的氨气今年下降了约34%，肥料行业组织“肥料研究所”首席经济学家维罗妮卡·奈格说。
Ammonia imports from Trinidad into the US have dropped about 34% this year, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute, an industry group.
“通常我们会预期其他地方的货源来填补这一缺口，就像去年那样，”她说。“但今年我们还没有看到这种情况。”过去十年来，由于本地产能扩张，美国对特立尼达氨气的依赖度有所下降。但一些新建工厂的运营问题限制了行业弥补进口损失的能力，拉特克利夫说。
"Normally we would expect to see that backfilled with tons from other locations, which is what we saw last year," she said. "We just haven't seen that this year." Over the last decade, the US has become less dependent upon Trinidadian ammonia because of an expansion in local production. But operational issues at some newer plants have limited the industry's ability to make up for lost imports, Ratcliff said.
特朗普总统上个月宣布了一项80亿美元的财政支持计划，以抵消农民的柴油成本。然而，爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的农业团体上周致信警告他，随着秋季施肥季氨气需求达到高峰，肥料成本上升正在削弱他的努力。
President Donald Trump announced an $8 billion financial support program last month to offset diesel costs for farmers. However, farm groups in Iowa, Ohio and Texas warned him in a letter last week that rising fertilizer costs were eroding his efforts as ammonia demand peaks during the autumn application season.