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纽约时报

七位总统所知而特朗普所不知What Seven Presidents Knew — and Trump Does Not

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政治学经典著作《总统的性格》的作者詹姆斯·大卫·巴伯,对总统职位的要求作了清晰的概括。总统必须是“职位的体面——甚至可以说是神圣性”的捍卫者,为公民提供“安心”、“进步”和“理想主义”的感觉。为了满足这一要求,巴伯第一章的一个小标题提出了一条格言:“性格决定表现。”巴伯的这本书出版于1972年,是一部宏大的研究,探讨了从伍德罗·威尔逊到理查德·M·尼克松垮台期间,性格、形象、道德、政治手腕和表演天赋的重要性。

A classic work of political science, “The Presidential Character” by James David Barber, offers a crystalline summation of what the presidency requires. Presidents must be protectors of “the respectability — even religiosity — of the office,” providing citizens a sense of “reassurance,” “progress” and “idealism.”To meet this test, a subhead of Barber’s first chapter offers a maxim: “Personality shapes performance.”Barber’s book, published in 1972, is a sweeping study of the importance of character, image, ethics, political dexterity and performative talent, from Woodrow Wilson through the collapse of Richard M. Nixon.

他对总统表现进行分类的体系,在我这一代国家政治记者中影响深远。我是数百名在宾夕法尼亚大道1600号近距离观察总统的记者之一。这并不能带来个人亲密关系,但经常接触总统的公开行为,并与他挑选的朝臣进行采访,确实能让人对行政首脑有所评判。总统在公开场合运作,他们无法长期隐藏自己的核心特质。

His system of classifying presidential performance was vastly influential among my generation of national political correspondents. I am among the hundreds of journalists who had a ringside seat at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. That doesn’t allow for personal intimacy, but regular exposure to a president’s public acts, and interviews with his chosen courtiers, does allow one to take the measure of a chief executive. Presidents operate in plain sight, and they can’t hide their core traits over time.

特朗普总统相较于他的前任显得黯然失色。我可以证明,即使在蒙受耻辱之时,私下的尼克松依然带着一种被摧残的尊严气场,其规模依然具有总统风范。当我看到现任总统及其谄媚者破坏我们的爱国地标和治理的基本工具时,我想起了拉塞尔·霍班1980年同名小说《里德利·沃克》中主角里德利·沃克的哀叹。这部小说曾是那些认为看似愚钝好战的罗纳德·里根将开启反乌托邦未来的知识分子中的畅销书。

President Trump is dwarfed by his predecessors. I can attest that even in disgrace, the private Nixon had an aura of ravaged dignity that remained presidential in scale. When I watch the current president and his toadies wreck our patriotic landmarks and essential tools of governance, I recall the lament of Riddley Walker, the eponymous hero of the 1980 Russell Hoban novel. It was a best seller among intellectuals who thought a supposedly dimwitted and warlike Ronald Reagan would usher in a dystopian future.

里德利缺乏教育,说着一种退化的方言,但他却是对一个曾经伟大的科技社会的放射性废墟的敏锐观察者。他瞥见了失去之物的壮丽,说道:“哦,我们曾是什么!如今又成了什么!”里根通过结束冷战,教会了我们预测的局限性,以及冷静、平衡的个性——在这个环境下,不妨说,还有仁慈的天性——是不可或缺的资产,而这些在特朗普先生对良好品味和常识管理的践踏中严重缺乏。

Riddley, deprived of education and speaking a degenerated dialect, is nonetheless an acute observer of the radioactive ruins of a once great technological society. He glimpses the majesty of what has been lost, saying, “O what we ben! And what we come to!”By ending the Cold War, Reagan taught us the limits of prediction and the indispensable asset of a calm, balanced personality and, dare one say it in this environment, a kindly nature — something sorely lacking in Mr. Trump’s offenses against good taste and common-sense management.

巴伯的作品看起来显然已过时——他于2004年去世——因为MAGA支持者在两场关键选举中选择了复仇而非理想主义,选择了报复而非治愈。然而,在一个方面,巴伯似乎具有病态的先见之明,他定义了三位出于良好意图的总统——伍德罗·威尔逊、赫伯特·胡佛和林登·B·约翰逊——通过“尽管有大量证据表明行动失败,却固执地坚持错误的行动方针”而使其支持率下降的剧本。

Barber’s work can seem demonstrably dated — he died in 2004 — since the MAGA faithful, in two watershed elections, chose vengeance over idealism, retribution over healing. Yet in one respect, Barber seems morbidly prescient in defining the playbook by which three presidents of benign intent — Woodrow Wilson, Herbert Hoover and Lyndon B. Johnson — drove down their approval ratings by a “narrow insistence on a failing course of action despite abundant evidence of the failure.”

还有什么比特朗普先生在一位疯狂的战争部长指导下,发动一场迄今未获胜利的对伊朗冲突更能描述这一情况的呢?

How better to describe Mr. Trump’s decision to launch a so far winless conflict in Iran under the guidance of a madcap secretary of war?

历史记录将显示,特朗普先生未能达标,即使考虑到尼克松或比尔·克林顿那种宏大的私人缺陷。特朗普先生内阁会议的录像精彩片段,可以作为真人秀节目来推销,名为“纽约的被宠坏的信托基金富二代”。我们在被蹂躏的白宫院子里目睹的,是一种廉价的旧货出售会,专门出售赛车、摔跤和驯服的摇滚乐手。就连他自认的继承人也自贬身价:JD·万斯在一本关于他伪装的阿巴拉契亚成长经历的书中贬低了“山地佬”这个词,而内阁中的“智囊”马尔科·鲁比奥则为关于伊朗、古巴和委内瑞拉的离谱政策辩护。

The historical record will show that Mr. Trump fails to measure up, even allowing for the grandiose private failings of a Nixon or a Bill Clinton. The videotaped highlights of Mr. Trump’s cabinet meetings could be marketed for reality television as “Spoiled Trust Fund Brats of New York.”What we are witnessing on the ravaged White House grounds is a kind of low-rent yard sale devoted to race cars, wrestling and housebroken rockers. Even his presumptive heirs have demeaned themselves: JD Vance by cheapening the word “hillbilly” in a book about his ersatz Appalachian upbringing, and Marco Rubio, the intellectual star of the cabinet, by defending nutty policies on Iran, Cuba and Venezuela.

作为一个整体,特朗普先生的管理团队已经颠覆了政治新闻报道的规则手册。正如理查德·里夫斯在1974年《纽约杂志》中所言,政治“新闻报道有其局限性”,难以描述无能。他回顾杰拉尔德·福特总统在科罗拉多州共和党集会上的笨拙演讲时写道:“福特总统无话可说,却对着一群友好、尊重但略感愕然的5000名听众,把无话可说说得一塌糊涂。”

Taken as a group, Mr. Trump’s management team has defeated the political journalism rulebook. As Richard Reeves observed in New York magazine in 1974, political “journalism has its limits” in describing ineptitude. Recounting President Gerald Ford’s bumbling speech to a Republican rally in Colorado, he reported, “President Ford had nothing to say and said it badly to a friendly and respectful but slightly stunned crowd of 5,000.”

他补充道:“这不是说皇帝没穿衣服的问题,而是是否有皇帝的问题。”中期选举将检验巴伯的核心格言:品格至关重要。公众期望总统“以鼓舞人心的方式体现我们的优越性”,他写道,要展现一种“道德理想主义”,而这正是“政治”的完全反面。特朗普先生将白宫商业化,以及亿万富翁们不受监管的操纵,是否终结了榜样总统的时代?

He added, “It is not a question of saying the emperor has no clothes — there is a question of whether there is an emperor.”The midterm elections will test Barber’s central maxim that character matters. The public expected commanders in chief “to personify our betterness in an inspiring way,” he wrote, to exhibit “a moral idealism” that is “the very opposite of ‘politics.’”Was this era of role model presidents ended by Mr. Trump’s monetization of the White House, and the unregulated machinations of billionaires?

巴伯会认为,特朗普先生的过度行为必定会触发旧民主的自我纠正钟摆。2026年和2028年的选举将告诉我们,数字潮流是否连同华盛顿的社交礼仪手册一起,将这种机制冲刷殆尽。

Barber would have argued that Mr. Trump’s excesses must surely trigger the self-correcting pendulum of the old democracy. The elections of 2026 and 2028 will tell us whether the digital tide has swept that mechanism away, along with the Washington etiquette book.

说到吉米·卡特,处理媒体关系是个不错的切入点。我在佐治亚州州长任期内为《亚特兰大宪法报》报道过他,又在总统竞选期间为《圣彼得堡时报》和《纽约时报》跟随采访。与他温和的举止形成对比的是,卡特在安纳波利斯锻造出钢铁般的内心,并且精于利用媒体。他先是试图用“诱惑”来拉拢记者,比如他曾主动对佐治亚州公路主任的腐败问题发表尖锐评价。

Press relations is a good place to start with Jimmy Carter, whom I covered during his Georgia governorship for The Atlanta Constitution and during his presidential campaigns for The St. Petersburg Times and The New York Times. Contrary to his soft manners, Carter had a steely core shaped at Annapolis and was calculating about using the press. He first tried seduction, as when he volunteered a scathing assessment of the corruption of Georgia’s highway director.

当时,卡特、他的妻子罗莎琳和我乘坐州政府飞机前往该公路主任的佐治亚州家乡,卡特语气激烈,妻子试图让他住口。他有点不耐烦地提醒她,他和我已经事先同意这段话不记名。他在考验我的诚实,同时也在向妻子提供有用的证据,以支持她作为关键政治顾问的角色。在他看来,最坏的结果不过是一篇对政敌严厉而真实的评价出现在该州的权威报纸上。他想证明自己拥有安纳波利斯所要求的钢铁脊梁。

Carter and his wife, Rosalynn, and I were in a state plane on a trip to the director’s Georgia hometown, and he spoke with such vehemence that his wife tried to hush him. He reminded her, a little snappishly, that he and I had already agreed we were off the record. He was testing my honesty and also providing useful evidence to her role as a key political adviser. From his point of view, the worst that could happen was that a harshly true assessment of a political enemy would show up in the state’s paper of record. He wanted to show that he had the steel spine required at Annapolis.

我遵守了关于这段“非正式发言”的承诺,但很快就因一篇惹恼他的文章而挨了他的“训斥”。卡特曾在州外的一次医学会议上发言,涉及佐治亚州不受欢迎的医疗保健改革。我将此作为报道的新闻重点,第二天我在国会大厦西入口遇到了卡特。他愤怒地说我忽略了他的主要观点。我回应说,我正在行使选择报道内容的权利。“下次少挑选点,”他哼了一声,大步穿过圆形大厅离去。

I kept my word about this off-the-record rant but soon got my own snapping-at for an article that angered him. Carter had spoken at a medical meeting outside the state, touching on health care reforms that were not popular in Georgia. I made that the news of my account, and the next day I encountered Carter at the western entrance to the Capitol. He angrily said I had ignored his main points. I responded that I was exercising my right to selectivity in what I chose to report. “Next time, be less selective,” he snorted, marching away across the rotunda.

这些经历与特朗普先生形成了几方面的对比。此前没有哪位佐治亚州州长举办过如此频繁的新闻发布会,其有益的公民目的在于向选民介绍一个无所作为的立法机构。回想起来,我意识到卡特当时正在为他当时保密的总统抱负进行排练。他正在训练自己那种修辞上的精确性,而这种精确性似乎在特朗普身上已经消退。

The experiences contrast with Mr. Trump in several ways. No previous Georgia governor held such frequent news conferences for the useful civic purpose of informing voters about a feckless legislature. Looking back, I realized Carter was rehearsing for his then-secret presidential aspirations. He was schooling himself in the rhetorical precision that seems to have eroded for Mr. Trump.

在椭圆形办公室,庄重的讲话已让位于意识流式的咆哮,常常带有性别歧视的针对。而同情心——特朗普身上明显缺乏的一种品质——对卡特来说却是自然而然的。他决定关注宫颈癌筛查和特殊需要儿童日托,显然没有任何政治收益,但这两项举措在佐治亚州农村贫困县都具有变革性。

In the Oval Office, stately address has yielded to the stream-of-consciousness rant, often with sexist targeting. And compassion, a quality glaringly missing in Mr. Trump, came naturally to Carter. There was clearly no political gain in his decisions to focus on cervical cancer screenings and day care for special needs children, both transformative in the poor counties of rural Georgia.

卡特极具同理心,有时在非正式社交场合显得不自在。老布什总统和小布什总统在这方面与他截然不同。老布什谈论“更仁慈、更温和”说得好,但他对自己吝啬的社会政策的影响视而不见。一个严寒的冬日早晨,我与他和芭芭拉·布什在他们的私人房间共进早餐。布什邀请我和他以及一位当地主播一起在波托马克河上钓鱼。在宾夕法尼亚大道上清晰可见的是裹着厚衣御寒的无家可归者。我心想,他们每天早餐时都能看到这一幕,怎么会不被无家可归者的困境所触动,从而采取系统性的回应呢?

Highly empathetic, Carter could sometimes seem ill at ease in casual social settings. President George H.W. Bush and President George W. Bush were his opposites in that regard. The elder Bush talked a good game of “kinder and gentler,” but he was myopic about the impact of his tightfisted social policies. I had breakfast with him and Barbara Bush in their private quarters one frigid winter morning. Bush had invited me to go fishing with him and a local anchorman on the Potomac. In clear view along Pennsylvania Avenue were homeless people, bundled against the cold. How, I wondered, could they observe this every morning at breakfast and not be moved to a programmatic response to the plight of the unhoused?

然而几小时后,当载着我们的快速海岸警卫队巡逻艇撞上水下物体并弯曲了传动轴时,布什展现了他性格中更敏感的一面。当受损的船只艰难前行时,他走到前面,安抚了列兵舵手,告诉他不必自责。像其他出身特权的政客一样,他社交举止从容。在他输掉1992年大选后举办的最后一次白宫圣诞派对上,他在接待队中告诉我,他读到我最近在《纽约时报》的晋升,从华盛顿分社社长升任编辑版主编。

Yet a few hours later, when the fast Coast Guard cutter carrying us hit an underwater object and bent its shaft, Bush displayed a more sensitive side of his personality. As the wounded boat limped along, he went forward and reassured the enlisted helmsman that he was not to blame. Like other politicians raised in privilege, he had a relaxed social manner. When he hosted his last White House Christmas party after losing the 1992 election, he told me in the receiving line that he had read about my recent promotion at The Times from chief of the Washington bureau to editorial page editor.

“你的事业是这样发展的,”他说着,手向斜上方抬起。“而我的事业是这样发展的,”他补充道,反转手势表示急剧下降。

“Your career is going like this,” he said, raising his hand in an upward slant. “And mine is going like this,” he added, reversing the gesture to indicate a steep decline.

这种优雅的细节在他儿子身上并不常见,后者与记者们开玩笑般地亲近,给他们起“潘乔”之类的绰号,其效果是把他们放在较低的位置。据称喝醉时,他在达拉斯一家餐馆里与《华尔街日报》华盛顿分社社长阿尔·亨特发生争论,起因是亨特对其父亲的报道。当我负责编辑版时,他问我对从华盛顿搬到纽约有什么感觉。“我受不了那个地方,”他以惊人的坦率说道。

Such grace notes did not surface frequently with his son, who invited a joking camaraderie with reporters, saddling them with nicknames like “Pancho” that had the effect of putting them in their lesser places. When reportedly drunk, he started an argument in a Dallas restaurant with Al Hunt, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau chief, over Mr. Hunt’s coverage of his father. When I was editing the editorial page, he asked me how I felt about moving from Washington to New York. “I can’t stand that place,” he said with startling candor.

我的结论是,老布什那些土气的做作——比如他偏爱猪皮和乡村音乐——是经过政治计算的,而小布什对德州粗犷魅力的偏爱则是真挚而真实的。他的主要顾问卡尔·罗夫和卡伦·休斯是“孤星州”的执行者,他们明确告诉我,他们厌恶东北部。他们向我保证,他们的客户对来《纽约时报》与编委会会面毫无兴趣,这是两党提名人的传统惯例。

My takeaway was that the elder Bush’s homespun affectations — like his preference for pork rinds and country music — were politically calculated, while W.’s preference for the crude charms of Texas was unfeigned and real. His main advisers, Karl Rove and Karen Hughes, were Lone Star enforcers who made clear to me that they detested the Northeast. They assured me their client had no interest in coming to The New York Times for the editorial board meeting that was traditional for nominees of both parties.

我通过共和党中间人大力游说,成功促使他们改变了决定。布什先生精神抖擞地走进会议室,一边寒暄闲聊,一边与每个人握手。当他握住我的手时,他俯身说:“谢谢你安排这次会面,”语气介于真诚和内部笑话之间。至少,小布什能侃侃而谈,而不会像扔炸弹一样抛出侮辱。

I lobbied hard through G.O.P. intermediaries and succeeded in getting their decision reversed. Mr. Bush bounced into the meeting room full of good cheer and small talk as he shook every hand. As he grasped mine, he leaned over and said, “Thank you for setting this up,” in a tone that was somewhere between sincerity and an inside joke. At the least, the younger Bush could banter without throwing bomb-like insults.

特朗普似乎与政治学家巴伯一样,高度看重总统角色扮演中的表演艺术。但特朗普似乎没有学习白宫戏剧大师的时机和花招。将里根的精彩时刻与特朗普式无休止的冗长叙事对比起来。里根确信他的“邪恶帝国”演说和对苏联领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫的挑战,会烙印进史册。他的从容和语言与特朗普机械的舞步以及关于敌人愚蠢和丑陋的深水炸弹式侮辱毫无共同之处。一个区别是,里根拥有敏捷的幽默感和演员对舞台布置的感觉。

Mr. Trump would seem to share with Barber, the political scientist, a high regard for showmanship in presidential role-playing. But Mr. Trump seems not to have studied the timing and flourishes of the master of White House theatricality. Contrast Reagan’s bravura moments with the endless filibuster of a Trumpian weave. Reagan was confident that his “Evil Empire” speech and his challenge to the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev would scorch their way into the history books. His ease and language have nothing in common with Mr. Trump’s mechanical dance steps and depth-charge insults about the stupidity and ugliness of his enemies. One difference is that Reagan had an agile sense of humor and an actor’s feel for staging.

我想起1980年夏天,当时罗纳德·里根和南希·里根租下了韦克斯福德,这是约翰·肯尼迪和杰奎琳·肯尼迪设立的周末度假胜地,位于蓝岭山脉。一天晚上,他们为随行新闻团和竞选飞机机组人员(包括空乘人员)举办了一场花园派对。南希·里根身着夏装,挽着一位穿T恤的网络摄像师的肌肉发达的手臂穿过人群,这位摄像师是加利福尼亚州的健美运动员。

I think of the summer of 1980, when Ronald and Nancy Reagan leased Wexford, the Blue Ridge farm that John and Jackie Kennedy established as their weekend retreat. One evening, they hosted a garden party for the traveling press corps and the crew, including flight attendants, of their campaign plane. Mrs. Reagan, in a summery dress, moved through the crowd on the muscled arm of a T-shirted network cameraman who was a California bodybuilder.

里根被记者们围住,记者们问他对即将年满70岁的玩笑有何感受。他说,嗯,我享受年轻人享受的一切。这个眨眼式的回应是对一个问题的巧妙回避,而特朗普大概率会用粗俗言语回应。

Reagan was encircled by reporters who asked how he felt about the jokes about approaching his 70th birthday. Well, he said, I enjoy everything that a younger man enjoys. The winking response was an amusing parry of a question that Mr. Trump most likely would have greeted with vulgarity.

以他轻松的方式,里根从未让自己的意识形态变成类似MAGA的束缚。1983年,当他与蒂普·奥尼尔在社保问题上剑拔弩张时,里根的幕僚长詹姆斯·A·贝克安排在自己家中举行秘密夜间会谈,双方达成了一项协议,使两人都能保全面子。尽管里根保守热情高涨,但他从不害怕妥协,也从不试图羞辱对手。

In his relaxed way, Reagan never let his ideology become a MAGA-like straitjacket. When he and Tip O’Neill were at swords’ points over Social Security in 1983, Reagan’s chief of staff, James A. Baker, arranged for secret nighttime meetings at his home, where the two sides made a deal that allowed both men to save face. Reagan, for all his conservative fervor, never feared compromise or tried to humiliate his opponents.

数十年来,《时代》杂志资深评论员休·西迪密切关注着椭圆形办公室的装潢。他视其低调的装饰和柔和的灯光为总统性格的持久象征。他的著作《总统肖像》副标题为《椭圆形办公室中的权力与个性》。章节《家,甜蜜的白宫》追溯了老布什搬出、比尔·克林顿入住时,油漆颜色、窗帘和地毯的细微调整。历史艺术品陈列在干净、整洁的墙壁上。得益于福克斯新闻的批评和《政权更迭》一书,我们看到了特朗普先生将杂物粘贴在这些墙上的形象。他声称那是真金,但视觉表达却像是霍比乐购。

For decades, Hugh Sidey, Time’s veteran commentator, closely monitored the appearance of the Oval Office. He regarded its understated décor and buttery light as enduring emblems of presidential character. His book “Portraits of the President” was subtitled “Power and Personality in the Oval Office.”The chapter “Home Sweet White House” tracks the subtle adjustments in paint color, drapes and rugs that took place when the elder Bush moved out for Bill Clinton. Historic art pieces were displayed on clean, uncluttered walls. Thanks to criticism on Fox News and the book “Regime Change,” we have the image of Mr. Trump gluing clutter to those walls. He claims it is real gold, but the visual statement says Hobby Lobby.

在我观察到的总统中,使用幽默的情况很少是嘲讽的武器。卡特曾讲述在爱荷华州一家理发店宣布自己参选总统的情景。他回忆说,理发师说:“是啊,我和伙计们刚才还在为此发笑。”我曾听尼克松对一小群记者开玩笑,说自己没能烧掉水门事件录音带。他,如同克林顿和有时会糊涂的里根一样,是一个有缺陷的威严人物。在未来两年,有思想的公民别无选择,只能逆着一场只有缺陷、没有威严的总统任期的水流,继续奋力前行。

When presidents I observed deployed humor, it was seldom a weapon of ridicule. Carter told of announcing in an Iowa barbershop that he was running for president. He recalled the barber saying, “Yeah, the boys and I were just laughing about that.”I once heard Nixon jest to a small group of reporters about his failure to burn the Watergate tapes. He, like Clinton and the sometimes befuddled Reagan, was a figure of flawed majesty. For the next two years, thoughtful citizens will have no choice but to beat on against the current of a presidency that is all flaws and no majesty.

豪威尔·雷恩斯是《纽约时报》前任执行主编。他最近的著作是《沉默的骑兵》,一部关于南北战争的历史。

Howell Raines is a former executive editor of The New York Times. His most recent book is “Silent Cavalry,” a Civil War history.

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