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Anthropic警告:已非常接近RSI能力,即自我构建型AIAnthropic warns that it’s very close to RSI capability, aka self-building AI

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递归人工智能,神经网络Recursive AI, neural network

虽然外界关注的焦点大多集中在 Anthropic 周一在修订后的 S-1A 文件中披露的最新财务数据上(营收飙升,但支出也在激增),但这家 AI 实验室在细则中还抛出了另一个“小型重磅消息”。

While much attention has focused on the updated financials Anthropic revealed in its revised S-1A on Monday, (revenue is soaring, but so are expenses), the AI lab dropped another little bombshell in the fine print.

该文件似乎在警示:公司正处于创造出具备“递归自我改进”(RSI)能力模型的临界点。

The filing seems to warn that the company is on the cusp of creating a model capable of recursive self-improvement (RSI).

RSI 是指 AI 在自我训练方面变得如此擅长,以至于引发 AI 能力的剧烈加速。对 AI 悲观论者而言,RSI 代表着无法回头的灾难,届时 AI 将构建出足够强大、超脱人类控制的自身,并在实现目标的过程中可能对造成的损害漠不关心。

RSI is the point at which AI grows so good at training itself that it spawns a dramatic acceleration of AI capabilities. To the AI doomers, RSI represents the cataclysm from which there is no return, in which AI builds itself into something powerful enough that it slips beyond human control and may be indifferent to the damage it causes while achieving its goals.

对 AI 爱好者而言,RSI,或某种 AI 可靠地利用自身进行改进的版本,代表着技术的承诺,届时它将成为生产力、科学发现等领域难以想象的工具。

To AI enthusiasts, RSI, or some version of AI reliably using itself to improve, represents the technology’s promise, where it becomes a tool of unimaginable productivity, scientific discovery, and more.

Anthropic 似乎认为 RSI 既是承诺也是危险。它在 S-1 中表示,公司在研发中使用 AI,但同时警告称:“利用 AI 协助构建更强大的 AI 也可能构成重大安全风险,特别是如果它大幅加快进步的步伐。这是我们‘负责任扩展政策’涵盖的领域之一,该政策阐述了我们在逼近所谓‘递归自我改进’时监测和缓解风险的计划。” 今年早些时候 RSI 这一术语流行起来时,许多人认为它只是个流行语,或者充其量是一个太难实现、定义或证明的目标。

Anthropic seems to believe that RSI is both a promise and a peril. It says in the S-1 that it uses AI in its R&D, but it cautions: “Using AI to help build more capable AI could also pose a considerable safety risk, particularly if it sharply accelerates the pace of progress. This is one of the areas covered by our Responsible Scaling Policy, which sets out our plans to monitor and mitigate the risks as we approach what has been termed ‘recursive self-improvement.'”When the term RSI became popular earlier this year, many believed it was a buzzword or, at best, a goal too hard to achieve, define, or prove.

但周一,Anthropic 在其“风险因素”章节新增了表述,称 1) 公司已使用 AI 开发新模型,但当时未能识别出这些模型能力的飞跃;2) 公司可能很快就会达到其自身对 RSI 的内部定义(下文加粗强调为笔者所加):此外,我们越来越多地使用 AI 系统来加速自身的研发工作,这可能导致我们模型的能力进步速度,快于我们开发、验证和实施相应的安全、对齐及安保措施的速度。

But on Monday, Anthropic added new statements to its Risk Factors section, saying 1) it has already used AI to develop new models whose leaps in capability it didn’t recognize at the time 2) it may soon meet its own internal definition of RSI (bold emphasis ours, below): In addition, our increasing use of AI systems to accelerate our own research and development may cause the capabilities of our models to advance more rapidly than our ability to develop, validate, and implement corresponding safety, alignment, and security measures.

因此,我们过去曾未能识别出,未来也可能无法识别出,我们的开发速度出现显著加速,直到这种加速已经发生之后。

As a result, we have in the past not identified, and may in the future not identify, a significant acceleration in our rate of development until after it has occurred.

例如,我们的内部估算以及对未来模型(而非当前模型)的预期表明,我们可能即将达到我们“负责任扩展政策”所定义的“归因于 AI 的显著加速进展”。我们尚未将任何当前模型指定为超过这一阈值,并仍在持续评估相关基础数据。

For example, our internal estimates and our expectations regarding future models, rather than our current models, indicate that we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of “dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.”We have not designated any of our current models as exceeding this threshold, and we continue to assess the underlying data.

不过,Anthropic 在该文件中也表示,其目前没有任何模型跨越这一 RSI 阈值,并承诺在可预见的未来将人类保留在研发流程中。“我们预计无法在没有有意义的人类监督或理解的情况下,安全地使用 Claude 来完全自主地设计和构建前沿模型的后续版本,即便这在技术上变得可行。因此,我们正在考虑更新我们的‘负责任扩展政策’,以确保人类在 Anthropic 的前沿模型开发中保持控制权。”

However, Anthropic also said in the filing that none of its models have crossed this RSI threshold yet and that it is promising to keep humans in the R&D process for the foreseeable future. “We do not anticipate being able to safely use Claude to fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision or understanding, if and when that becomes technically possible. Accordingly, we are considering updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy to keep humans in control of frontier model development at Anthropic.”

怀疑者可能会指出,S-1 文件既是披露文件也是营销材料,而关于即将拥有能够自我构建的强大模型的说法,可能属于后一类。

Skeptics might point out that an S-1 functions as both disclosure and marketing, and that claims of being close to a model so powerful that it can build itself could fall into the latter category.

尽管如此,毫无疑问,Claude 的能力,尤其是在编程、数学和网络安全方面,今年已取得突飞猛进的进展。如果 Anthropic 认为 RSI 的可能性迫在眉睫,也许我们应该相信这一点,并据此采取行动——或许应进行监管。

Nevertheless, there’s no question that Claude’s capabilities, especially in terms of coding, math and cybersecurity have grow in leaps and bounds this year. If Anthropic thinks the possibility of RSI is close, maybe we should believe it and act — perhaps govern — accordingly.

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