保罗·辛格旗下的埃利奥特投资管理公司将当前市场状况——充斥着债务驱动的冒险行为和对新技术的过度炒作——比作先于大萧条而来的“咆哮的二十年代”。
Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets, laden with debt-fueled risk-taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies, to the Roaring ‘20s that preceded the Great Depression.
“目前，几乎所有预示着未来将出现大幅熊市的警钟都在敲响，”这家管理资产规模达800亿美元的对冲基金公司在一份10月致投资者信函中写道。《华尔街日报》已审阅该信函。
“At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing,” the $80 billion hedge-fund firm wrote in an October investor letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
尽管埃利奥特正在为可能发生的历史性动荡做准备，但其表现却落后于更广泛的对冲基金行业。
While Elliott is prepping for potentially historic upheaval, its performance is lagging behind the broader hedge-fund industry.
根据信函内容，截至9月30日的三个月里，埃利奥特的回报率持平，导致其2026年前九个月的收益略低于2%。这落后于研究公司PivotalPath编制的综合对冲基金指数，也落后于同期标普500指数近13%的总回报率以及短期国债指数近3%的涨幅。埃利奥特的季度信函以对当下主导主题的悲观论调著称。
Elliott’s returns were flat in the three months ending Sept. 30, leaving its gains the first nine months of 2026 at a little under 2%, according to the letter. That trails a composite hedge-fund index compiled by research firm PivotalPath, as well as the nearly 13% total return of the S&P 500 and the nearly 3% gains in an index of short-term Treasury bills over the same period.
其10月信函重点强调了美国预算赤字、持续通胀、私人信贷投资组合以及人工智能炒作中积聚的风险。并警告称，由更像是赌博而非投资的因素导致的市场扭曲，包括交易者使用零日期权和押注迷因股。
Elliott’s quarterly letters are known for their doom-and-gloom commentary on the dominant themes of the day.
辛格和乔纳森·波洛克是该公司的两位首席执行官兼首席投资官，他们管理着对冲基金行业最大的资金池之一，资金部署于激进投资、收购、不良债务投资和大宗商品交易等多种策略中。公司避免追求暴利，更倾向于带来更稳定的持续收益。
Its October message highlighted risks building in U.S. budget deficits, persistent inflation, private-credit portfolios and artificial-intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing, including traders using zero-day options and betting on meme stocks.
目前，他们写道，重点在于保全资本，并做好准备，以便在市场陷入动荡时伺机出击。
Singer and Jonathan Pollock, the firm’s two chief executives and chief investment officers, run one of the hedge-fund industry’s largest pools of capital, deployed across strategies spanning activist campaigns, buyouts, distressed-debt investing and commodities trading. It avoids swinging for the fences, preferring to deliver a more consistent streak of base hits.
“在艾略特五十年的经营历程中，休耕期一直存在，但这些时期通常伴随着市场动荡，之后又会出现罕见的获利机会。我们的目标是——在潮汐再次转向时，我们已做好充分准备：下行有保护，且有资本可投入抄底。”
Currently, they wrote, they are focused on preserving their capital and being ready to strike if the market runs into turmoil.
第三季度，艾略特的亏损行业包括与黄金、货币、股票和利率相关的困境债务和对冲组合。其盈利行业包括大宗商品、套利和对冲组合（与信贷相关）。
“Over Elliott’s five-decade existence, fallow periods have existed, but these have historically been accompanied by market turbulence and followed by periods of rare opportunities,” the letter said. “Our goal is to be well positioned—protected on the downside, and with capital to deploy into the bargains—when the tide turns again.”In the third quarter, Elliott’s unprofitable sectors included distressed debt and portfolio hedges related to gold, currencies, stocks and interest rates. Its profitable sectors included commodities, arbitrage and portfolio hedges related to credit.
该公司看好在医疗保健公司进行积极投资、开发能源资产，以及最终在错配信贷市场中从被迫卖家手中收购等机会。其近期积极投资仓位包括对百事公司和Synopsys的持股，后者是一家芯片设计软件公司。
The firm sees opportunities in activist investing in healthcare companies, producing energy properties and, eventually, buying from forced sellers in dislocated credit markets. Its recent activist positions include stakes in PepsiCo and Synopsys, a chip-design software maker.
艾略特管理合伙人之一杰西·科恩上个月在X上发文，感叹零售交易员、高频交易员及其他交易员对短期价格发现的影响。
Jesse Cohn, one of Elliott’s managing partners, took to X last month to lament the effect that retail, high-frequency and other traders are having on short-term price discovery.
“现在的股市感觉不一样了，因为它确实不一样。赢家继续赢，输家被重击，盈利反应越来越不可预测且幅度越来越大，”科恩在一篇关于“Regarding AI”的帖文中写道。艾略特警告了AI模型公司与AI基础设施制造商之间循环投资、债务融资资本支出以及蓬勃发展的反AI运动等问题。艾略特写道，任何对AI产品定价提出挑战或对AI建设前景预期降低的市场影响，“可能是史无前例的，或者至少与过去几十年中的任何熊市一样严重。”
“The stock market feels different right now because it is different. Winners keep winning, losers get pounded, earnings reactions are increasingly unpredictable and larger,” Cohn said in a post on Regarding AI, Elliott warned about circular investments between AI model companies and makers of AI infrastructure, debt-financed capital spending and a burgeoning anti-AI movement. Elliott wrote that the market impact from any challenges to the pricing of AI products or diminished expectations about the AI build-out “could be historic, or at least as severe as any bear market in the last few decades.”
“这么多因素汇聚在一起导致了这场伟大的牛市，也许只需要其中一两个因素受到破坏，就能将这一势头逆转，引发这场牛市的级联式、自我强化的 unwind（逆转），并突然从FOMO（错失恐惧症）转变为FOGO（恐惧被摧毁）。”
“So many factors have lined up to cause this great boom that it might take disruption in only one or two of them to shift this momentum into reverse, leading to a cascading, self-reinforcing unwind of this bull market and an abrupt change from FOMO to FOGO (fear of getting obliterated),” the letter said.