在吉伦特河口对岸，与上梅多克的酒庄隔水相望的，是波尔多周边地区那些不太起眼的农田。这些农田近来遭受了三重打击：今年夏天的极端高温、更高的能源成本，以及全球日常葡萄酒消费量的下降。许多农民已经放弃。一些田地里堆着烧黑的葡萄藤（见图），等待被焚烧。今年，吉伦特省有1095名葡萄种植者拔除了7825公顷葡萄藤。
Across the Gironde estuary from the chateaux of Haut-Médoc lie the less fashionable farmlands of the region around Bordeaux. They have been triply battered of late: by extreme heat this summer, higher energy costs and a global decline in the drinking of everyday wine. Many farmers have given up. Blackened piles of vines (pictured) lie in some fields ready to be burned. This year 1,095 winegrowers in the Gironde have ripped out 7,825 hectares of vines.
自2023年以来，该地区超过四分之一的葡萄园已被毁。在波尔多市，骚乱者近几周点燃了路障。但这只是法国当前不满情绪中较为安静、不那么显眼的一面。在布莱镇，学生们封锁了他们的中学；但事情平静地过去了。人们的感受是苦恼，而非愤怒。当地人对未来持怀疑态度，并担心在这个汽车不可或缺的地方加满油箱的成本，他们认为政府没有采取任何帮助措施。
Over a quarter of the region’s vineyards have been destroyed since 2023. In the city of Bordeaux, rioters have set barricades ablaze in recent weeks. But this is the quieter, less visible side of France’s current discontent. Here, in the town of Blaye, pupils blockaded their secondary school; but it passed off calmly. The feeling is distress rather than rage. Locals are sceptical about the future and worried about the cost of filling the tank in a place where a car is essential, and think the government is doing nothing to help.
“我很难过，但不愤怒，”一位葡萄园主说。由于对华出口崩溃以及法国国内葡萄酒消费下滑，他在经营30年后决定放弃，并补充道：“我们有一位不听人说话的总统。”几十年来，吉伦特省农村地区偏向左翼，而中右翼则在繁荣的波尔多市执政。20年间，布莱镇周边的议会选区一直由一名社会党人把持，直到2017年转向总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的中间派政党。
“I’m sad, not angry,” says a vineyard owner, who is packing it in after 30 years due to the collapse of exports to China and of wine-drinking in France, adding: “We have a president who doesn’t listen.”For decades rural Gironde tilted to the left, while the centre-right ruled in the prosperous city of Bordeaux. For 20 years the parliamentary constituency around Blaye was held by a Socialist, before swinging to the centrist party of President Emmanuel Macron in 2017.
然而，在2022年的议会选举中，该席位被玛丽娜·勒庞的民粹右翼政党国民联盟（RN）的埃德维热·迪亚兹赢得。两年后，她在第一轮投票中以53%的得票率再次当选。9月，39岁的迪亚兹女士当选参议员，她的祖父曾是共产党人。“我们在这里长期开展竞选活动。全年我们都会出现在市场上，人们能看到我们，认识我们，”迪亚兹女士说。她来到一个小村庄，参加当地一名宪兵的退休聚会。
At parliamentary elections in 2022, however, the seat was captured by Edwige Diaz of Marine Le Pen’s populist-right National Rally (RN). Two years later she was re-elected in the first round, with 53% of the vote. In September the 39-year-old Ms Diaz, whose grandfather was a Communist, was elected to the senate. “We’re permanently campaigning here. All year round we are at the markets, people see us, they know us,” says Ms Diaz, who has turned up in a small village for the retirement party of a local gendarme.
国民联盟（RN）的支持如今不仅来自农场劳工和工人阶级，还来自店主、药剂师和其他商贩。在2024年的立法选举中，该党在全国范围内是工人阶级选民中最受欢迎的政党（其中57%的人支持它），在白领雇员中也是如此（44%）。“左翼变得更加激进，捍卫加沙的力度超过了对农民的关注，”迪亚兹女士宣称。“人们也知道，他们已经不能再指望埃马纽埃尔·马克龙或他的继承人了。相比之下，玛丽娜·勒庞的言论严肃而令人安心。”
The RN’s support now comes not only from farm labourers and the working class but from shopkeepers, pharmacists and other traders. At legislative elections in 2024 the party was the most popular countrywide among working-class voters (57% of whom backed it) as well as white-collar employees (44%). “The left has become more radical and defends Gaza more than farmers,” declares Ms Diaz. “People also know they have nothing left to hope for from Emmanuel Macron or his dauphins. Next to that, Marine Le Pen’s discourse is serious and reassuring.”
勒庞女士曾是愤怒政治的旗手，如今她已开始把怒火留给民粹左翼的让-吕克·梅朗雄及其“不屈法国”（LFI）党。近来，这位国民联盟领袖正以舒适与希望的候选人身份进行推销，尽管这听起来难以置信。在明年总统选举之前，她于10月25日在奥尔良发表了首场大型竞选演讲，身穿一件浅粉色外套，谈论“美”与“希望”。
Once a champion of the politics of indignation, Ms Le Pen has begun to leave the fury to the populist-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his Unsubmissive France (LFI) party. These days the RN leader is making a pitch, however improbably, as the candidate of comfort and promise. At her first big campaign speech in Orléans on October 25th, ahead of next year’s presidential election, she dressed in a powder-pink jacket and spoke about “beauty” and “hope”.A local focus on improving daily life has enabled the RN to put down roots in unlikely places.
着眼于改善日常生活的本地化策略，使国民联盟在出人意料的地方扎下了根。圣萨万村已不复昔日风光；村里的两家纹身店都用木板封了起来，而“伊莎之家”酒吧在午餐时间却生意兴隆。这个村庄由左翼治理了12年，但在3月，选民首次选出了一位国民联盟市长弗雷德里克·茹安。她重新开启了夜间的路灯。10月，村里举办了为期三天的节庆活动，包括从教堂出发的火炬游行、穿街而过的自制滑车比赛以及乡村舞。
The village of Saint-Savin has seen better days; its two tattoo parlours are boarded up, while the Bar Chez Isa is busy at lunchtime. For 12 years the village was run by the left, but in March for the first time voters elected an RN mayor, Frédérique Joint. She has turned the street lighting back on at night. In October the village held a three-day fête, complete with a torchlight procession from the church, soapbox racing through the streets and la country dancing.
“随着葡萄园的消失，我们正在失去我们的风土、我们的技艺、我们的传统，”茹安女士说。超市和加油站的价格上涨挤压了地方预算。“人们需要在喜庆、令人愉悦的活动中聚在一起。”在这样的地方，赤裸裸的身份政治也大行其道，当地候选人诉诸基督教和传统。
“With the loss of the vineyards, we’re losing our terroir, our savoir-faire, our traditions,” says Ms Joint. Local budgets are squeezed by higher prices in the supermarket and at the pump. “People have a need to get together at festive feel-good events.”There is plenty of red-meat identity politics at play too in places like this, with local candidates appealing to Christianity and tradition.
但民粹主义者转向平凡的治理议题，在艰难时刻提供了一丝希望，也是更广泛常态化进程的一部分。“我们正在目睹一次重大转变，”巴黎政治学院政治学家吕克·鲁班在最近的一份研究报告中写道，“‘不屈法国’取代了‘国民联盟’处于边缘地位……‘不屈法国’让温和左翼选民感到恐惧，远甚于‘国民联盟’让温和右翼选民感到恐惧。”
But the populists’ turn towards mundane governance issues offers some hope in hard times, and is part of a broader normalisation. “We are witnessing a major shift,” wrote Luc Rouban, a political scientist at Sciences Po university, in a recent research note, “with LFI taking the RN’s place on the fringes…LFI frightens moderate left-wing voters far more than the RN frightens moderate right-wing voters.”
从某些角度看，法国选民的苦闷情绪令人费解。该国为公民提供了异常完善的从摇篮到坟墓的福利国家。公共社会支出占国内生产总值的32%，在欧盟国家中仅次于芬兰。法国人退休更早，作为退休人员的寿命也比大多数邻国国民更长。
In some ways France’s bitter mood is perplexing. The country provides its citizens with an unusually protective cradle-to-grave welfare state. Public social spending, at 32% of GDP, is higher than in any other European Union country but Finland. The French retire earlier and live longer as pensioners than most of their neighbours.
然而，选民对政府的信任以及对社会契约的信念出现了裂痕。对主流政治的信心正在崩塌。一项10月民调显示，仅16%的受访者认为马克龙是一位好总统，创下他2017年当选以来的最低纪录。另一项民调显示，81%的人认为政府应对近期的暴力事件负责。消费者信心已跌至13年来最低点。执政十年后，马克龙及其开创的中间派政治不再代表希望，而代表失望。吉伦特省的一位酿酒农简单地说，他感到“失败了”。这种痛苦正在将希望的天平倾向“国民联盟”。
Yet something has broken in voters’ trust in government and in their faith in the social contract. Confidence in mainstream politics is collapsing. Just 16% of all respondents told a poll in October that Mr Macron is a good president, a record low since he was elected in 2017. In another, 81% held the government responsible for the recent violence. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest for 13 years. After a decade in office Mr Macron and the centrist politics he ushered in no longer represent promise, but disappointment. One winegrower in the Gironde says simply that he feels “defeated”. Such distress is shifting the balance of hope to the RN.