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大西洋月刊

在特朗普地盘赢得选民支持的民主党人The Democrat Who’s Winning Over Voters in Trump Country

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乔什·夏皮罗正在向人群发表讲话。Josh Shapiro speaks to a crowd.

宾夕法尼亚州州长致力于翻转四个共和党国会席位。文 / 加比·多伊奇查尔斯·本杰明在2024年首次投票,投给了特朗普总统。自那以后,他眼看着自己在麦当劳的订单——两个双层芝士汉堡和大份薯条——涨了七美元。他的红牛饮料也贵了。他在东斯特劳兹堡大学的一个兄弟会兄弟,目前在军队服役,刚被派往中东,去支持一场本杰明认为特朗普曾承诺不会发动的战争。

The Pennsylvania governor is focused on flipping four Republican congressional seats. By Gabby Deutch Charles Benjamin voted for the first time in 2024, casting a ballot for President Trump. Since then, he’s watched his McDonald’s order—two McDoubles and large fries—go up seven bucks. His Red Bulls cost more too. One of his fraternity brothers at East Stroudsburg University, who’s in the military, just shipped off to the Middle East to support a war that Benjamin believed Trump had promised not to start.

“我不喜欢他说谎,”身穿豹纹卫衣、手持长曲棍球杆的21岁大三学生本杰明告诉我。我在校园集会上等待见乔什·夏皮罗时遇到了本杰明。本杰明对这位宾夕法尼亚州州长感到好奇,但不确定是否会投给他。

“I don’t appreciate that he lied,” Benjamin, a 21-year-old junior sporting a leopard-print sweatshirt and holding a lacrosse stick, told me. I met Benjamin as he was waiting to see Josh Shapiro at a campus rally. Benjamin was curious about the Pennsylvania governor, but unsure whether to vote for him.

活动开场冷清。几十人站在草坪上搭建的小舞台周围,学生们在身后走向教室,对当地民主党官员的演讲置若罔闻。随后夏皮罗登场。他谈到了高物价、伊朗战争以及民选官员的腐败问题。“我知道今天到场的你们当中,有些人带着一点健康的愤世嫉俗,一点健康的怀疑态度,心里在想……”夏皮罗说。是的,他告诉人群——但前提是你关心,并且你去投票。

The event got off to a lackluster start. A few dozen people stood around a small stage set out on the quad as students walked to class behind them, ignoring the speeches from local Democratic officials. Then Shapiro came out. He talked about high prices and the Iran war and corruption among elected officials. “I understand that there are some of you who showed up today with a little bit of healthy cynicism, a little bit of healthy skepticism, wondering, ” Shapiro said. Yes, he told the crowd—but only if you care, and only if you vote.

本杰明和他的朋友尼克·维普里纽克认真听着。维普里纽克是一名志愿消防员,一头凌乱的草莓金发,2024年也投了特朗普的票。演讲结束时,夏皮罗赢得了他们的选票。维普里纽克是大四学生,他告诉我夏皮罗“极具感染力”。“我喜欢他那种充满激情的样子。”夏皮罗在竞选演讲中展现出的热情,其演讲传递出前总统奥巴马式的乐观务实风格(更不用说他的语速节奏),这或许能解释这位民主党州长为何在宾夕法尼亚州广受欢迎——该州在2016年和2024年都投给了特朗普。

Benjamin and his friend Nick Vyprynyuk, a volunteer firefighter with disheveled strawberry-blonde hair who had also cast his ballot for Trump in 2024, listened carefully. By the end, Shapiro had won their votes. He was “electrifying,” Vyprynyuk, a senior, told me. “I like how enthusiastic he was.”Shapiro’s exuberance on the stump, in speeches that channel the optimistic pragmatism of former President Obama (not to mention his speaking cadence), could help explain the Democratic governor’s popularity in Pennsylvania, a state that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024.

米歇尔·古斯塔夫森/《大西洋月刊》 支持者们欢呼雀跃,州长乔什·夏皮罗在宾夕法尼亚州多伊尔斯敦与鲍勃·哈维共同出席“翻转宾州第1选区”集会并发表讲话。Michelle Gustafson for The Atlantic Supporters cheer as Governor Josh Shapiro speaks at the Flip PA-01 Rally with Bob Harvie in Doylestown, Pennsylvania.

夏皮罗既能迎合深蓝选区民主党选民对特朗普的厌恶,又能组建一个足够大的联盟,容纳投给总统的人。这是一个有效的策略:民调经常显示,他领先共和党人、亲特朗普阵营的州财长斯泰西·加里蒂超过20个百分点。(加里蒂承诺要“解决乔什·夏皮罗造成的问题”,包括宾夕法尼亚州相对较高的税收负担和不断上涨的食品价格。)

Shapiro has been able to feed deep-blue Democrats’ loathing of Trump while assembling a coalition that is large enough to include people who voted for the president. It’s an effective strategy: Polls regularly show him leading Republican Stacy Garrity, the MAGA-aligned state treasurer, by more than 20 points. (Garrity is pledging to “fix the problems Josh Shapiro has created,” including Pennsylvania’s relatively high tax burden and rising food prices.)

夏皮罗的领先优势大于他在2022年击败州参议员道格·马斯特里亚诺时的得票差距,后者有散布极右翼阴谋论的历史,并与恐伊斯兰者和反犹太主义者有交往。

Shapiro’s lead is larger than his margin of victory in 2022 against state Senator Doug Mastriano, who had a history of espousing far right-conspiracy theories and associating with Islamophobes and anti-Semites.

夏皮罗上周在全州巡回,重点在于争取农村选民——尽管真正的共和党人在他的集会上往往难觅踪影。在派克县这个波科诺山区的深红门户,特朗普两年前以24个百分点的优势获胜。总统的支持者几乎没人现身观看州长演说。在米尔福德,这个位于该州东北角的小镇上,到场的全是铁杆民主党人——包括该镇自称“抵抗委员会”的组织者,该团体每周三下午在镇中心抗议特朗普,还有一名身穿“让美国再次感恩”印花卫衣的男子,卫衣主题取材于感恩而死乐队。

Shapiro spent last week touring the state, with a focus on trying to win over rural voters—though actual Republicans tended to be elusive at his rallies. In Pike County, the ruby-red gateway to the Poconos, Trump won by 24 points two years ago. Few, if any, of the president’s supporters showed up to see the governor. In Milford, a tiny town in the state’s northeast corner, it was die-hard Democrats only—including the organizer of the town’s self-proclaimed “Resistance Committee,” a group that spends Wednesday afternoons in the center of town protesting Trump, and a guy in a Grateful Dead–themed Make America Grateful Again sweatshirt.

夏皮罗告诉人们离场时拿两块牌子——一块当天插在自家前院,另一块留着一两天后换上,等邻居把第一块偷走后再换上。“重新竖上去时要微笑,”夏皮罗说,“这向邻居传递一个信息:你惹不了我。”即使特朗普追随者不露面,夏皮罗也在向农村选民释放信号:我在为你们着想。在宾夕法尼亚煤矿区一座旧狩猎渔猎旅馆里,夏皮罗吹嘘终结了该州延续百年的周日禁猎令。

Shapiro told people to take two signs on their way out—one to stick in their front yard that day, and another to replace it a day or two later, after their neighbors steal the first. “Smile when you put it back out there,” Shapiro said. “That sends a message to your neighbors: You’re not going to be messed with.”Even when Trump acolytes don’t show up, Shapiro is trying to send a message to rural voters: I’m looking out for you. Inside an old hunting and fishing lodge in Pennsylvania coal country, Shapiro bragged about ending the state’s century-old ban on hunting on Sundays.

当他在威尔克斯-巴里附近一所社区学院的小体育馆露面时,夏皮罗夸耀自己签署了一项行政命令,在听取附近社区居民担忧后,对人工智能数据中心的建设实施严格监管。

When he appeared at a small gym at a community college near Wilkes-Barre, Shapiro boasted of writing an executive order that heavily regulates the construction of AI data centers after hearing from concerned residents of a nearby community.

沙皮罗的竞选口号是 GSD,意为“搞定一切”,这条信息正好迎合了该州广泛的选民,巴克斯县民主党警长丹尼·塞斯勒说。他告诉我,沙皮罗是“对抗人们对政治最讨厌的东西的解药”。塞斯勒去年在这片紫色郊区县推翻了一名共和党现任官员,原因是他批评该官员与 ICE 合作。塞斯勒表示,沙皮罗能够让事情发生——包括在全州雇佣更多警察——赢得了许多执法人员的尊重和支持。

Shapiro’s campaign slogan is GSD, for “get shit done,” and that message plays to a broad swath of the state, said Danny Ceisler, the Democratic sheriff of Bucks County. He told me that Shapiro is “the antidote to what everybody hates about politics.”Ceisler unseated a Republican incumbent in the purple suburban county last year after criticizing his decision to partner with ICE. Ceisler said Shapiro’s ability to make things happen—including hiring more cops statewide—has earned him the respect and support of many law-enforcement officers.

米歇尔·古斯塔夫森/《大西洋月刊》 夏皮罗在宾夕法尼亚州吉尔伯茨维尔的蒙哥马利县草根集会上向与会者致意。Michelle Gustafson for The Atlantic Shapiro greets attendees of the Montgomery County Grassroots Rally in Gilbertsville, Pennsylvania.

沙皮罗告诉我,在紫色州作为民主党人取得成功实际上与搞定一切一样简单。“出现,尤其是在没有投票给你的社区。以尊重的态度对待人们。倾听他们,也许了解他们为何做出不同选择,然后行动。回到办公室为他们交付成果,”他在位于舒伊尔克县、被鲜红与黄色枫叶环绕的狩猎小屋外说。答案并不令人满意——听起来很像所有政治家都说的成功公式。

Shapiro told me that achieving success as a Democrat in a purple state really is as straightforward as getting shit done. “Show up, especially in communities that didn’t vote for you. Treat people with respect. Listen to them and maybe why they made a different choice, and then do. Go back to the office and deliver for them,” he said outside the hunting lodge, which was in Schuylkill County and surrounded by crisp red-and-yellow maple leaves. It’s not a very satisfying answer—and it sounds a lot like what all politicians say is a winning formula.

但沙皮罗押注,他能让这条信息在自己党派之外——甚至远超宾夕法尼亚州——产生共鸣。再在哈里斯堡连任四年继续 GSD 看似理所当然,他正利用竞选尝试翻盘宾夕法尼亚州的四个摇摆选区。沙皮罗将自己的政治前途与斯克兰顿市长佩奇·科格内蒂、南中宾夕法尼亚州的贾尼尔·斯特尔森、巴克斯县的鲍勃·哈维以及莱海谷的鲍勃·布鲁克斯的成功联系在一起。

But Shapiro is betting that he can make that message resonate outside of his own race—and far beyond Pennsylvania. Four more years in Harrisburg to keep GSD-ing looks like a given, so he’s using his campaign to try to flip four swing congressional districts in Pennsylvania. Shapiro has tied his political future to the success of Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, Janelle Stelson in south-central Pennsylvania, Bob Harvie in Bucks County, and Bob Brooks in the Lehigh Valley.

他们都是民主党人,试图击败现任共和党国会议员。对沙皮罗来说,这是一场个人努力,他为招募民主党人参选而自夸。如果他能帮助他们越过门槛,他将在 2026 年拥有显著的炫耀资本——以及如果如预期那样在 2028 年竞选总统,他可以再添一项成就。

They’re all Democrats trying to defeat incumbent Republican members of Congress. The effort is personal for Shapiro, who took credit for recruiting the Democrats to run. If he can help pull them over the line, he’ll have significant bragging rights for 2026—and one more achievement to tout if, as expected, he runs for president in 2028.

Shapiro 对这四位候选人的全力支持与他对哪些民主党候选人要全力支持的计算一样具有说服力。在舒伊尔基尔县的狩猎小屋,他与竞选对手共和党人丹·米尤尔(Dan Meuser)竞争的民主党人瑞秋·华莱士(Rachel Wallace)同场发言。(米尤尔在小屋的演讲中指责 Shapiro 在关于削减食品援助和健康保险的言论中撒谎,称他的言论显示出“缺乏道德品格”。)

Shapiro’s all-in support for the four is as telling as his calculations about which Democratic candidates to fully back. At the hunting lodge in Schuylkill County, he spoke at the same event as Rachel Wallace, a Democrat running against Republican Dan Meuser. (Meuser accused Shapiro of lying about cuts to food assistance and health insurance in his speech at the lodge, claiming his remarks show a “lack of moral character.”)

但米尤尔的席位被认为是安全的——两年前他以超过40个百分点的优势获胜——Shapiro 知道这一点。他表示希望看到华莱士获胜,但并未给予她与其他四位候选人同等程度的全力背书。最近,他创建了一个联邦政治行动委员会,以便将捐款引导给他支持的候选人,而华莱士并不在其中。

But Meuser’s seat is considered safe—he won by more than 40 points two years ago—and Shapiro knows it. He said he wants to see Wallace win but did not give her the kind of full-throttle endorsement he gave the other four. He recently created a federal political-action committee so he could funnel donations to the candidates he’s supporting, and Wallace is not among them.

他想要助选获胜的候选人感受到的氛围却有所不同;夏皮罗经常指出,民主党人只需要四个席位就能翻转众议院的控制权。上周,在米尔福德,他站在科涅蒂身旁对人群说:“通过选举她,你们有能力真正让民主党人掌控国会,并对这位总统形成制衡。”第二天晚上,他在一个卡车司机工会的停车场对200人说,选举斯特尔森——“简直会改变华盛顿的权力平衡”。

The vibe is different for the candidates he wants to help win; Shapiro often notes that Democrats need just four seats to flip control in the House. Standing beside Cognetti last week in Milford, he told the crowd, “You have the ability, by electing her, to literally put the Democrats in charge of the Congress and deliver a check against this president.”The next night, he told 200 people in a Teamsters parking lot that electing Stelson—a former Lancaster news anchor who narrowly lost a congressional race against the same competitor, the incumbent Scott Perry, two years ago—“quite literally will tilt the balance of power in Washington.”

米歇尔·古斯塔夫森/《大西洋月刊》 竞选标牌立在宾夕法尼亚州多伊尔斯敦的巴克斯县民主党委员会办公室外。Michelle Gustafson for The Atlantic Campaign signs outside the Bucks County Democratic Committee office in Doylestown, Pennsylvania

斯特尔森曾是兰开斯特的新闻主播,两年前在同一选区以微弱劣势输给了同一个对手、现任议员斯科特·佩里。当我跟随夏皮罗的巴士巡游穿越波科诺斯和蓝山时,我向科涅蒂、斯特尔森和沃利斯询问:夏皮罗——一位来自费城郊区自由派阵营的反特朗普民主党人,每次演讲都有相当一部分时间抨击总统的“混乱、残忍和腐败”——是如何赢得这么多共和党人支持的。

As I followed Shapiro’s bus tour through the Poconos and the Blue Mountains, I asked Cognetti, Stelson, and Wallace about how Shapiro—an anti-Trump Democrat from the liberal Philadelphia suburbs who spends a good portion of every speech slamming the president’s “chaos, cruelty, and corruption”—has won the backing of so many Republicans. (A /Siena poll in September found Shapiro winning support from a fifth of self-identified Republican voters.)

(锡耶纳学院9月的一项民调发现,夏皮罗赢得了五分之一自认共和党选民的支持。)科涅蒂告诉我,这是因为夏皮罗在治理方式上不是一个党派人物;他把共和党人任命到自己的政府中,并与共和党控制的州参议院合作。她一直在努力让选民相信她也这样做。“他治理宾夕法尼亚州政府的方式并不极度党派化,”她在东斯特劳兹堡的一间教室里对我说。

Cognetti told me it’s because Shapiro is not a partisan in the way he governs; he appointed Republicans to his administration and has worked with the Republican-controlled state Senate. She’s been trying to convince voters that she does the same. “He doesn’t run the government of Pennsylvania in a hyper-partisan way,” she told me in a classroom at East Stroudsburg.

“同样,我治理斯克兰顿市的方式也不党派化。”沃利斯是一位长期担任民主党工作人员的人,几年前她母亲被诊断出帕金森病后,她回到了斯库尔基尔县。她告诉我,她从夏皮罗身上学到的教训是要到场。斯特尔森称夏皮罗为“另一个J.S.”,她说他的成功源于他的职业道德。“他为所有人工作,这也是我想成为的那种代表,”斯特尔森在哈里斯堡附近当地卡车司机工会总部外登台前说。

“Similarly, I don’t run the city of Scranton in a partisan way.”Wallace, a longtime Democratic staffer who returned to Schuylkill County a few years ago when her mom was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, told me the lesson she takes from Shapiro is to show up. Stelson, who calls Shapiro “the other J.S.,” said his success stems from his work ethic. “He works for all of us, and that’s the kind of representative I’d like to be as well,” Stelson said before taking the stage outside the local Teamsters headquarters near Harrisburg.

对于夏皮罗而言,投资众议院竞选是一种巧妙的方式,能让他在全国政治中产生影响,又避免了前往新罕布什尔州或南卡罗来纳州等早期总统初选州所引发的猜测。但他面对人群时那种随意的风度,即便在即兴演讲中也是如此,掩盖了他严格的信息纪律。身边的人都知道不要助长2028年大选的传闻,要坚持夏皮罗的路线:聚焦本地。

For Shapiro, his investment in the House races is a clever way to make an impact on national politics without the speculation that comes from visiting early presidential-primary states such as New Hampshire or South Carolina. But his casual manner in front of a crowd, even in impromptu speeches, masks his strict message discipline. Those close to him know not to feed the 2028 rumors, and to stick to the Shapiro line: Keep it local.

在赞扬夏皮罗2023年费城高架桥坍塌后迅速恢复I-95通车的能力时,斯特尔森是唯一一位愿意承认夏皮罗的梦想可能超越宾夕法尼亚州的国会候选人。“如果他将来决定竞选更高职位或什么的,他会谈论那件事的,你知道,”她对我说,随即打住了话头。“如果他将来决定,”斯特尔森眨眨眼说道。

Stelson was the only one of the congressional candidates willing to even acknowledge that Shapiro’s dreams might be bigger than Pennsylvania, when praising his ability to quickly reopen I-95 after an overpass collapsed in Philadelphia in 2023. “He’ll be talking about that, you know, should he ever decide to run for higher office or anything,” she told me, before stopping herself. “ he ever,” Stelson said with a wink.

一小时后,夏皮罗走上卡车司机工会集会的舞台。他在演讲结尾提醒与会者,费城曾举办制宪会议,也是建国先贤签署《独立宣言》的地方。他谈到了民主的承诺,以及每个美国人为维系民主所必须付出的努力。这是一个在宾夕法尼亚州有特殊共鸣的故事——在南卡罗来纳州也会相当受欢迎。

An hour later, Shapiro walked onstage at the Teamsters rally. He closed his speech by reminding attendees that Philadelphia hosted the Constitutional Convention, and the city was where the Founders signed the Declaration of Independence. He talked about the promise of democracy and the work that individual Americans must do to keep it alive. It’s a story with special resonance in Pennsylvania—and one that would play pretty well in South Carolina too.

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