我投资黄金和黄金矿企已有20年，其中一条心得是：如果你看好黄金，就应该更爱一家优秀的黄金矿企。我目前最看好的是Agnico Eagle Mines（阿格尼科·伊格尔矿业）。该公司成立于1957年，总部位于多伦多，已从一家加拿大小型银矿企业成长为全球第二大黄金生产商。公司在加拿大、澳大利亚、芬兰和墨西哥运营矿山，其大部分黄金产量来自加拿大。
I’ve been investing in gold and gold miners for 20 years, and one thing I’ve learned is that if you like gold, you should love a great gold miner. My favorite right now is Agnico Eagle Mines . Founded in 1957, Toronto-based Agnico Eagle has grown from a small Canadian silver mining business into the world's second-largest gold producer . The company operates mines in Canada, Australia, Finland and Mexico, with the majority of its gold production coming from Canada.
核心要点尽管生产成本上升，Agnico Eagle依然保持高盈利。强劲的现金流使公司能通过分红和回购回馈股东。央行购金和有限的黄金供应支撑长期前景。
Key points Agnico Eagle remains highly profitable despite rising production costs. Strong cash flow allows the company to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Central bank buying and limited gold supply support the long-term outlook.
黄金经历了一轮惊人的涨势。在2024年3月开始的这轮为期两年的牛市中，黄金上涨了164%，而黄金矿企股价飙升了348%。Agnico Eagle表现更佳，涨幅达382%。矿业股能放大标的金属的波动。金价上涨时，矿企受益于更高的售价和不断扩大的利润率，有望为股东带来更大的收益。
Gold has had an incredible run. During the two-year bull market that began in March 2024, gold rallied 164%, while gold miners surged 348%. Agnico Eagle did even better, gaining 382%. Mining stocks can amplify moves in the underlying metal. When gold prices rise, miners can benefit from higher selling prices and expanding profit margins, potentially delivering even bigger gains for shareholders.
我为何买入
Why I'm buying Strong margins despite rising costs One key measure of a gold miner's profitability is all-in sustaining costs (or AISC).
成本上升下依然强劲的利润率衡量黄金矿企盈利能力的一个关键指标是全维持成本（AISC），即生产黄金和维持现有采矿业务的成本。Agnico Eagle第三季度的AISC升至每盎司1648美元，高于一年前的1331美元。投资者不喜欢成本增加，财报发布后股价下跌。但请考虑这一点：该季度Agnico Eagle的黄金平均售价为每盎司4264美元。即使生产成本更高，生产成本与售价之间仍存在巨大差额。成本也可能下降。如果柴油价格下跌，将大幅提升Agnico Eagle的利润率。
That includes the cost of producing gold and maintaining existing mining operations. Agnico Eagle's AISC rose to $1,648 an ounce in the third quarter, up from $1,331 a year earlier. Investors didn't like the increase, and shares fell following the earnings report. But consider this: Agnico Eagle sold its gold for an average of $4,264 an ounce during the quarter. Even with higher production costs, there's still a substantial gap between what it costs to produce gold and what the company gets for selling it. Costs could come down, too. If diesel prices fall, that could give a major boost to Agnico Eagle's margins.
创纪录现金流回馈股东 阿格尼科鹰矿业第三季度产生8.52亿美元自由现金流，拥有充足资金回馈股东。管理层预计，假设当前金价和运营条件维持不变，将通过股息和回购返还2026年自由现金流的一半以上。这正是我看好该公司的重要原因。与持有期间不产生任何收益的实物黄金不同，阿格尼科鹰矿业既提供股价上涨潜力，又提供收益收入。
Record cash flow is rewarding shareholders Agnico Eagle generated $852 million in free cash flow in the third quarter, giving it plenty of money to reward shareholders. Management expects to return more than half of its 2026 free cash flow through dividends and buybacks, assuming current gold prices and operating conditions hold. That's a big part of the appeal for me. Unlike physical gold, which doesn't pay investors anything while they hold it, Agnico Eagle offers the potential for both share-price gains and income.
我看好黄金后市 全球央行一直在购买黄金以实现储备多元化，减少对传统货币和金融资产的依赖。我预计这种需求将持续。持续的政府赤字以及对法币购买力的担忧，也使黄金作为价值储存手段更具吸引力。AEM 年初至今走势图 阿格尼科鹰矿业，年初至今还有供给端因素。新金矿开发需要数年时间，且即将投产的大型项目相对较少。这使得生产商难以迅速增产以满足需求。
I think gold has more room to run Central banks around the world have been buying gold to diversify their reserves and reduce their reliance on traditional currencies and financial assets. I expect that demand to continue. Persistent government deficits and concerns about the purchasing power of fiat currencies also make gold attractive as a store of value. AEM YTD mountain Agnico Eagle Mines, YTD Then there's supply. New gold mines take years to develop, and relatively few major projects are coming online. That makes it difficult for producers to quickly increase supply to meet demand.
为何现在入场？ 黄金和矿业股较今年早些时候的高点大幅回调。阿格尼科鹰矿业跌幅尤为明显。截至11月2日，股价较52周高点下跌约三分之一。最新财报发布后，投资者聚焦生产成本上升，股价进一步承压。但我视此抛售为机会。阿格尼科鹰矿业仍在创造大量现金，且我认为黄金长期前景依然向好。
Why now? Gold and mining stocks have pulled back sharply from their highs earlier this year. Agnico Eagle has been hit particularly hard. As of November 2, shares were roughly one-third below their 52-week high. The stock also came under pressure following its latest earnings report, as investors focused on rising production costs. But I see the sell-off as an opportunity. Agnico Eagle is still generating substantial cash, and I believe the long-term outlook for gold remains favorable.
核心观点 金矿股波动性较大。若金价下跌或运营成本居高不下，阿格尼科鹰矿业的利润率和股价可能受损。但我认为该公司兼具盈利能力、股东回报及对基本面强劲的黄金市场的敞口，极具吸引力。近期回调让这一机会更加诱人。
Bottom line Gold miners can be volatile. If gold prices fall or operating costs remain elevated, Agnico Eagle's margins and stock price could suffer. But I believe the company offers an attractive combination of profitability, shareholder returns and exposure to a gold market with strong long-term fundamentals. The recent pullback makes that opportunity even more compelling.
Tim Seymour 是 Seymour Asset Management 的创始人兼首席投资官。他在对冲基金和投资组合管理、资产配置以及资本市场等多个资产类别领域拥有超过 28 年的投资经验。披露：Seymour 与公司共同持仓。所有 [CNBC Pro 撰稿人] 表达的观点仅代表其个人观点，不反映 CNBC、其母公司或关联公司的观点，且可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介由他们先前发布。
Tim Seymour is the founder and CIO of Seymour Asset Management . He has over 28 years of investment experience as a hedge fund and portfolio manager, allocator and capital markets professional across multiple asset classes. Disclosures: Seymour owns with the firm. All opinions expressed by the [CNBC Pro contributors] are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.
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