亿万富翁投资者比尔·阿克曼表示，中期选举可能成为房利美和房地美摆脱政府控制的转折点。
The midterm elections could be a turning point for the release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control, according to billionaire investor Bill Ackman.
投资者可能会认同他的观点，如果这两只股票的上涨是任何迹象的话。
Investors may agree with him, if the rally in both stocks is any sign.
联邦国民抵押协会，即房利美，和联邦住房抵押贷款公司，即房地美，两只股票均从10月14日到周一收盘时上涨了60%以上。周二两只股票均上涨了约3%。
The Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or Freddie Mac, have each jumped more than 60% from Oct. 14 to Monday's close. The stocks were both up roughly 3% on Tuesday.
阿克曼是Pershing Square Capital Management的创始人，他长期主张让这两家机构摆脱联邦托管。
Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, has long pushed for the two entities to be released from federal conservatorship.
“之所以现在不去动它，你知道，是因为中期选举，”他在接受CNBC“早间快报”节目采访时说。阿克曼通过Pershing Square持有这两只股票，他认为房地美和房利美有潜力从当前股价上涨“10倍”，他在周一发布的季度股东信中这样表示。
"The reason why it's not being touched right now is, you know, midterms," he said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box." Ackman, who owns both names through Pershing Square, believes Freddie and Fannie have the potential to increase "10-fold from current share prices," he said in his quarterly letter to shareholders, issued on Monday.
房利美和房地美从银行和其他贷款机构购买抵押贷款，然后将其打包成抵押支持证券，即MBS。它们的运营对住房市场至关重要，为银行提供流动性，并为MBS创造二级市场。
Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages from banks and other lenders, and then package them into mortgage-backed securities, known as MBS. Their operations are critical to the housing market, providing liquidity to banks and creating a secondary market for MBS.
这两家机构于2008年9月金融危机期间被置于托管之下。其股票于2010年从纽约证券交易所摘牌，此后一直在场外交易。
The entities were placed into conservatorship in September 2008, during the financial crisis. The stocks were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in 2010 and have traded over the counter since then.
阿克曼希望托管结束，他认为如果这两家机构摆脱政府控制，其价值将是当前估值的数倍。
Ackman wants the conservatorship to end, arguing the entities would be worth multiples of their current valuation if they were freed from government control.
唐纳德·特朗普总统支持结束房利美和房地美的托管。但这在政治和经济上仍然存在争议。
President Donald Trump has supported ending the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie. But it remains politically and economically contentious.
这些实体在严格的资本门槛要求下运营，需要重新注资，这可能通过发行普通股来实现。然而，财政部需要制定退出计划，处置其在实体中约3880亿美元的所有权份额，该份额通过优先证券和权证持有。
The entities operate under strict capital threshold requirements and would need to be recapitalized, which could happen through issuing common equity. However, the Treasury Department would need to figure out an exit plan for its roughly $388 billion ownership stake in the entities through preferred securities and warrants.
国会也可能需要发挥作用，通过立法重组政府在抵押贷款融资和住房贷款担保方面的角色。
Congress may also need to play a role, passing legislation to restructure the government's role in mortgage financing and home-loan guarantees.
尽管如此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特最近表示，这可能在特朗普任期结束前实现。他在2Way的《晨会》播客节目中表示，政府将在“明年，后年”处理所有权结构问题。他说，可负担性将指导这一决定。
Nonetheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said it could happen before Trump's term ends, telling 2Way's "The Morning Meeting" podcast that the administration will tackle the ownership structure "next year, the year after." He said affordability will be guiding the decision.
一个争议点是，结束房利美和房地美的保管状态是否会扩大抵押支持证券相对于国债的利差，从而使抵押贷款变得更昂贵。贝森特一直试图向市场保证不会发生这种情况。
One point of controversy is whether ending the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie would increase the spreads on MBS over Treasuries, effectively making mortgages costlier. Bessent has sought to reassure the market that wouldn't happen.
“无论我们做什么，都将以确保[机构]抵押贷款相对于国债的利差不增加为指导，”贝森特说。
"Whatever we do is going to be guided by making sure that the spread on [agency] mortgages … over the Treasury does not increase," Bessent said.
阿克曼认为，将政府资助企业私有化将有助于使其免受政治干预。“房利美和房地美是这些庞大的、极其盈利的机构，无论哪个政党控制它们……如果它们仍处于保管状态，都可以影响选举结果，”他对CNBC表示。
Ackman argues that privatizing the GSEs would help insulate them from political meddling. "Fannie and Freddie are these massive, enormously profitable institutions where whichever political party controls them…if they're still in conservatorship, can influence the outcome of elections," he told CNBC.
他解释说，在一种情景下，民主党赢得白宫，保管状态仍然存在，民主党推动房利美和房地美降低信贷标准，以扩大住房拥有率和可负担性。
In one scenario, he explained, Democrats win the White House, conservatorship is still in place, and Democrats push Fannie and Freddie to lower credit standards in order to expand home ownership and affordability.
“如果他们打算更激进地介入信用质量较低的借款人领域，例如为了实现政治目标，这将影响数万亿美元的未偿还抵押贷款证券，”阿克曼说。“这将影响整体信用利差。”他指出，MBS 投资者希望确定这些实体将如何运营。
"If they're going to move more aggressively into borrowers with lower credit quality, for example, to achieve a political objective, that's going to have an impact on trillions of dollars outstanding mortgage securities," Ackman said. "It's going to have an impact on overall credit spreads." MBS investors want certainty about how the entities will be run, he noted.
“只有在它们退出托管、成为由机构和散户投资者持有的上市公司的世界里，这才能得到解决，”阿克曼说。“我们制定规则。在托管状态下，总统可以为所欲为。”
"That only gets resolved in a world in which they exit conservatorship, they become publicly traded companies that are owned by institutional and retail investors," Ackman said. "We set the rules. In conservatorship, the president can do anything."