决策台总部（Decision Desk HQ）预测，周二，民主党籍联邦众议员盖布·瓦斯奎兹（Gabe Vasquez）在新墨西哥州第2选区击退强劲挑战，成功连任第三届，令共和党人倍感挫败，后者已连续数个选周期将该席位视为重点翻红目标。瓦斯奎兹击败了共和党挑战者格雷格·坎宁安（Greg Cunningham），后者是一名海军陆战队老兵、阿尔伯克基市退休警探，竞选主张强化边境安全与严厉执法。截至美东时间晚上10点23分，在40%选票统计完毕时，决策台总部预测瓦斯奎兹以17.5个百分点领先坎宁安。
Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) fended off a tough challenge in New Mexico’s 2nd District on Tuesday, securing a third term and frustrating Republicans who have seen the seat as a top pick-up opportunity for several cycles, Decision Desk HQ projects. Vasquez defeated GOP challenger Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran and retired Albuquerque police detective who ran on a platform of secure borders and tough law enforcement. DDHQ projected that Vasquez beat Cunningham by 17.5 percent with 40 percent of votes counted as of 10:23 p.m. EST.
共和党原指望这一主张能在该选区引起共鸣，该选区地域辽阔，涵盖新墨西哥州与墨西哥接壤的整段边境。2024年，特朗普总统曾在该选区以2个百分点优势获胜。但今年的政治环境与两年前截然不同，选民因一场不得人心的伊朗战争、动荡的经济以及生活成本危机——在总统任内汽油、食品杂货、住房等民生必需品价格均大幅上涨——而对特朗普失望。
Republicans hoped that message would resonate in the 2nd District, a massive region that runs the entire length of New Mexico’s border with Mexico. President Trump had carried the district by 2 percentage points in 2024. But the political environment this year is much different than it was just two years ago, as voters have soured on Trump amid an unpopular Iran war, a volatile economy and a cost-of-living crisis that’s seen the price of numerous consumer goods — including staples like gas, groceries and housing — increase under the president’s watch.
这些趋势拖累了全国范围内的共和党候选人。此外，特朗普激进的驱逐攻势进一步增加了坎宁安的难度，该行动虽抓捕并驱逐了暴力罪犯，却也导致美国公民和合法居留的非武装移民被杀。这一议题在全国引发共鸣，但在新墨西哥州第2选区这种西班牙裔占多数的边境选区更具特殊意义。事实上，进入周二前，民调显示特朗普2024年在西班牙裔选民中取得的进展在本选周期已基本抹平，主因正是其激进的移民执法议程。
Those trends have been a drag on GOP candidates across the country. And Cunningham was challenged further by Trump’s aggressive deportation surge, which has led to the capture and expulsion of violent criminals, but also resulted in the killings of U.S. citizens and unarmed immigrants living in the country legally. That issue has resonated throughout the country but carries a special significance in a Hispanic-heavy border district like New Mexico’s 2nd. Indeed, heading into Tuesday, polls showed that the gains Trump had made with Hispanic voters in 2024 had been erased this cycle, largely because of his aggressive immigration enforcement agenda.
在一个议题上，两位候选人达成共识：瓦斯奎兹和坎宁安均反对特朗普将该州更名为“新美国”的提议。“我是自豪的新墨西哥人，”坎宁安上月在一场辩论中说，“我们将永远保持这个身份。”
On one issue, the two candidates found agreement: Both Vasquez and Cunningham opposed Trump’s push to rename their state “New America.”“I'm a proud New Mexican,”Cunningham said during a debate last month, “and that's what we're going to stay.”