美国商品和服务价格在10月可能以较慢的速度上涨，此前美国消费者经历了两个月特别令人不适的时期。
Prices for US goods and services probably rose at a slower pace in October after two particularly uncomfortable months for American consumers.
文斯·戈勒、克雷格·斯特林撰稿 根据彭博社对经济学家的调查中位数预测，消费价格指数（CPI）预计将上涨0.3%，此前9月涨幅为0.6%，为4月以来最大涨幅。美国劳工统计局将于周二发布数据。
By Vince Golle and Craig Stirling The consumer price index is seen rising 0.3% after a 0.6% increase that was the largest since April, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Tuesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release.
剔除通常波动较大的能源和食品成分的核心指标也可能降温。调查中位数预计10月核心CPI上涨0.2%，将为三个月来最小涨幅。由于当时联邦政府停摆，该机构跳过了2025年10月CPI的发布，因此不会公布同比数据。
The core measure, which excludes often-volatile energy and food components, also probably cooled. The survey median sees a 0.2% increase for October, which would be the smallest advance in three months. The agency won’t publish year-over-year figures after it skipped the October 2025 CPI release due to the federal government shutdown at the time.
10月CPI将是美联储12月议息会议前的最后一份通胀报告，投资者预期决策者届时将加息。经济学家还将评估报告的细节，以寻找2027年初通胀风险的线索。
The October CPI will be the last before the Federal Reserve’s meeting in December, at which investors expect policymakers to boost interest rates. Economists will also assess the finer details of the report for clues on inflation risks into early 2027.
花旗集团经济学家在近期的一份报告中表示，他们预计高昂的能源成本向商品价格的传导有限，服务业通胀将保持温和。
Economists at Citigroup Inc. said in a recent note that they anticipate limited pass-through of high energy costs to goods prices, as well as moderate services inflation.
彭博经济学观点……“我们预计10月总体CPI放缓至0.25%（前值为0.65%）。核心CPI可能放缓至0.24%（前值为0.33%），商品和服务价格涨幅均放缓推动了改善。在商品方面，二手车和消费电子产品——因人工智能热潮而面临压力的类别——通胀放缓。在服务方面，业主等价租金涨幅较9月激增水平下降了三分之一。”——安娜·王、特洛伊·杜里、伊丽莎·温格。
What Bloomberg Economics Says...“We expect headline CPI slowed to 0.25% in October (vs. 0.65% prior). The core likely softened to 0.24% (vs. 0.33% prior), with both softer goods and services price gains driving the improvement. For goods, used cars and consumer electronics — categories that have faced pressure from the AI boom — saw slower inflation. For services, gains in owners’ equivalent rent are down a third from a September spike.”—Anna Wong, Troy Durie and Eliza Winger.
点击此处阅读完整报告 这份最新的通胀快照发布于周五强于预期的10月就业报告之后。持续的就业增长有可能确保消费者继续支出，同时让美联储能将重点完全放在通胀上。
To read the full note, click here The latest snapshot of inflation also follows Friday’s stronger-than-expected October jobs report. Sustained employment growth has the potential of ensuring consumers keep spending, while allowing the Fed to keep its focus squarely on inflation.
另一份定于周五发布的价格报告预计将显示企业面临的顽固通胀压力。生产者价格指数预计将加速至10月止的年度6.6%，为近四年来最陡峭的年度涨幅。
Another price report, due on Friday, is projected to show nagging inflationary pressures faced by companies. The producer price index is forecast to accelerate to 6.6% for the year through October, the steepest annual increase in nearly four years.
除通胀报告外，全美房地产经纪人协会周四的数据预计将显示，由于抵押贷款利率维持高位，二手房合同成交量将降至2010年以来的最低水平。
Aside from inflation reports, National Association of Realtors figureson Thursdayare expected to show a decline in contract closings on previously owned homes to the lowest level since 2010 as mortgage rates stay elevated.
在加拿大，9月制造业和批发业报告预计将反映第三季度经济增长放缓。制造业销售额当月可能仅增长0.1%，而上月为1.5%。这可能部分归因于美国汽车工厂意外停工，抑制了跨境汽车贸易。
In Canada, September manufacturing and wholesale reports are expected to reflect a slowdown in third-quarter economic growth. Manufacturing sales likely rose just 0.1% that month, against 1.5% the month earlier. That may be partly due to an unexpected work stoppage at US auto plants that dampened cross-border auto trade.
除石油外的批发销售额可能略微增长0.5%，而上月下降1.6%。与此同时，加拿大央行将发布导致其三年来首次加息的审议摘要。
Wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, likely increased slightly, by 0.5%, against a 1.6% decline the month before. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will release a summary of the deliberations that led to its first rate hike in three years.
在其他地区，来自中国到挪威的通胀数据、来自日本到瑞典的央行会议纪要，以及英国的增长数据均属于本周看点。
Elsewhere, inflation data from China to Norway, central-bank minutes from Japan to Sweden, and growth data in the UK are among highlights.
点击此处查看过去一周发生的事件，以下是我们对全球经济未来一周将要发生事件的综述。
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
亚洲 本周以周一中国的通胀更新拉开序幕。10月消费者物价涨幅可能略微放缓至0.8%，因能源和AI以外的行业仍显疲软。出厂价格通胀预计将加速至5.4%，为2022年6月以来最快增速，受供给侧再通胀压力驱动。
Asia The week kicks off with inflation updates from China on Monday. Consumer price gains may have slowed a tad in October, to 0.8%, as sectors outside energy and AI remain sluggish. Factory-gate inflation is seen accelerating to 5.4%, the fastest pace since June 2022, driven by supply-side reflationary pressure.
日本也将发布10月生产者价格，预计将显示成本压力依然居高不下，而印度的消费者物价数据可能显示通胀自2023年8月以来首次超过6%。
Japan also releases producer prices for October that will likely show cost pressures remain elevated, while consumer-price data from India may show inflation above 6% for the first time since August 2023.
菲律宾第三季度数据预计将显示经济增长略有加速。澳大利亚将于周三公布消费者和企业信心指标，预计10月NAB企业信心指数将连续第九个月为负值。
Third-quarter data from the Philippines are forecast to reveal economic growth accelerated a bit. Australia releases gauges for consumer and business sentiment on Wednesday, with the NAB Business Confidence reading for October likely to be negative for a ninth consecutive month.
新西兰10月制造业PMI将于周五公布，该指数自2025年7月以来一直稳处扩张区间。
New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI for October is due on Friday, with the gauge having stayed firmly in expansionary territory since July 2025.
日本周二将公布9月家庭支出数据，可能显示支出连续第10个月下降，这给日本央行关于收入上升带动支出的良性循环将逐步增强的断言蒙上阴影。中国、印度和台湾将公布贸易数据。
September household spending data in Japan on Tuesday may show outlays fell for a 10th straight month, casting doubt over the Bank of Japan’s assertion that a virtuous cycle of rising incomes feeding into spending will gradually intensify. Trade data are due from China, India and Taiwan.
亚洲下周没有央行利率决议，但日本央行将公布10月货币政策会议的意见摘要。该行维持政策设定不变，同时宣布基调通胀终于达到了2%的通胀目标。这一评估为早至12月再次加息敞开了大门。
Asia has no central bank decisions in the coming week, but the BOJ will release a summary of opinions from its October board meeting. It held settings steady, while declaring that underlying inflation had finally reached its 2% inflation target. That assessment opens the door to another rate hike as soon as December.
英国第三季度数据将于周四公布，将展示自2023年以来首次加息的强劲增长背景。经济学家预测增速将加快至0.7%，这将是两年多来最强劲的增速。
Third-quarter UK data on Thursday will illustrate the robust growth backdrop to the first rate hike there since 2023. Economists predict expansion quickened to 0.7%, which would be the strongest pace in more than two years.
决策者的公开露面也将引人关注。英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利周一将在苏黎世，副行长克莱尔·隆巴德利周二将在“英格兰银行及其观察者”会议上发言。欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩也将在该会议上发言。
Policymaker appearances will also draw attention. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey is in Zurich on Monday, and Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the “Bank of England and Its Watchers” conference the following day. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane also speaks at that event.
与此同时，在欧洲央行行长提名截止后，欧元区财长将于周一在布鲁塞尔开会，讨论接替克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的竞争。
Meanwhile, following the close of nominations for ECB president, euro-zone finance ministers will discuss the race to succeed Christine Lagarde at a meeting in Brussels on Monday.
本地区数据包括德国周一的出口数据、意大利周三的工业产出数据，以及周五的欧元区GDP二次估值。
Data in the region include German exports on Monday, Italian industrial production on Wednesday, and a second reading of euro-area GDP on Friday.
在北欧地区，瑞典央行（Riksbank）将于周二公布其最新加息决策的会议纪要。同一天，挪威将公布通胀数据。
In the Nordics, Sweden’s Riksbank on Tuesday publishes minutes of its latest decision to raise borrowing costs. The same day, Norway’s inflation reading is due.
埃及官员也将密切关注周二公布的通胀数据，此前物价涨幅已连续两个月放缓。埃及央行在10月意外加息。
Egyptian officials will also closely watch their inflation reading on Tuesday after price growth eased for two straight months. The central bank unexpectedly raised rates in October.
加纳财政部长卡西尔·阿托·福森（Cassiel Ato Forson）将于周四向议会提交2027年预算案，预计将概述一项旨在加速增长和创造就业的100亿美元经济计划的细节，此前该国经历了多年违约后的财政整顿。
Ghana’s finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, in his 2027 budget to lawmakers on Thursday, is expected to outline details of a $10 billion economic plan aimed at accelerating growth and creating jobs after years of post-default fiscal consolidation.
根据彭博经济学的预测，俄罗斯经济在第三季度数据于周五公布时，料将显示疲软扩张。同样将于周五公布的10月通胀数据，可能显示年度物价涨幅加速至7%以上，为一年来首次。
Russia’s economy is likely to show weak expansion when third-quarter data are published on Friday, according to Bloomberg Economics. Inflation numbers for October, also due on Friday, may show annual price growth accelerated to above 7% for the first time in a year.
乌干达决策者预计将于周一再次加息，此前他们在上个月的紧急会议上将基准利率从9.75%上调至12%，以支撑先令。
Uganda’s policymakers are expected to raise borrowing costs again on Monday, after an emergency meeting last month at which they lifted the benchmark to 12% from 9.75% to support the shilling.
周四，罗马尼亚央行预计将在今年最后一次货币政策会议上维持利率在6.5%不变，为欧盟最高利率。
On Thursday, Romania’s central bank is anticipated to keep its rate at 6.5%, the EU’s highest, in its final policy meeting of the year.
同一天，塞尔维亚官员可能在大选后的首次决策中维持借贷成本不变。央行行长约尔戈万卡·塔巴科维奇（Jorgovanka Tabakovic）因当地贷款机构Alta Banka的倒闭而面临压力。
And Serbian officials may keep borrowing costs steady the same day in their first post-election decision. Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic is under pressure over the collapse of local lender Alta Banka.
拉丁美洲 在墨西哥，周一将公布的全月和下旬通胀数据，料将进一步推高至墨西哥央行（Banxico）3%的目标之上，并越发逼近4%的上限。市场共识预期读数将略低于央行在令人意外的11月5日降息25个基点至6.25%时发布的新第四季度预测。
Latin America In Mexico, both full-month and late-month inflation data due on Monday look likely to push further above Banxico’s 3% target and ever closer to the 4% ceiling. The consensus sees readings just under the central bank’s new fourth-quarter forecasts, delivered with its surprising Nov. 5 quarter-point rate cut to 6.25%.
哥伦比亚的消费者物价报告也紧随利率决策会议之后，不过哥伦比亚央行（BanRep）董事会选择维持政策不变，利率维持在限制性强得多的12.25%。
Colombia’s consumer-price report also comes on the heels of a rate-setting meeting, though in BanRep’s case the board opted to keep policy unchanged and at a much more restrictive 12.25%.
周二的焦点落在巴西中央银行身上，关注巴西局势的人士希望能从其11月3日至4日会议纪要中获取一些指引。
Center stage on Tuesday belongs to Banco Central do Brasil, with Brazil-watchers hoping to glean some measure of guidance from the minutes of its Nov. 3-4 meeting.
鲜有政策会议出现如此剧烈的前景转变——从强烈共识预期连续第六次降息至13.5%，到实际决定将关键的Selic利率维持在13.75%不变。
Few policy meetings have seen such a dramatic shift in outlook — from a strong consensus for a sixth straight cut to 13.5%, to the actual decision to hold the key Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%.
但总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦意外连任，且未说明计划如何让政府财政重回正轨，这使得中央银行暂时被边缘化。在央行11月4日按兵不动之前，本地分析师已将其关键利率预测上调至2029年预测期限。
But President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s shock reelection and silence on how he plans to get the government’s finances back in order have sidelined the central bank for the time being. Prior to the bank’s Nov. 4 hold, local analysts had marked up their key rate forecasts to the 2029 forecast horizon.
作为及时的后续，巴西10月通胀数据料将显示较9月高于目标的4.58%再度上行，与分析师最近对2026年5.22%的预估一致。
In a timely follow-up, Brazil’s October inflation figures are likely to show another move higher from September’s above-target 4.58% print, consistent with analysts’ most recent 2026 estimate of 5.22%.
对于阿根廷，本地分析师预计10月月度通胀将连续第三个月低于2%，可能慢于9月的1.9%，使年率维持在9月33.4%左右的水平。
For Argentina, local analysts look for a third straight sub-2% monthly inflation print in October, potentially slower than September’s 1.9%, keeping the annual reading right around September’s 33.4% level.
距离下一次大选不到一年，阿根廷经济已滑入技术性衰退，抑制消费者物价对总统哈维尔·米莱而言可能是一项挑战。
Less than a year from the next election, Argentina’s economy has skidded into a technical recession and keeping the lid on consumer prices may be a challenge for President Javier Milei.
秘鲁中央银行将于周四召开会议，在连续13个月将关键利率维持在4.25%后，行长胡利奥·贝拉德及其同事料将在10月通胀跃升至5.25%后，实施自2023年1月以来的首次加息。
Peru’s central bank meets Thursday, and after 13 straight months of keeping the key rate at 4.25%, Governor Julio Velarde and colleagues are likely to deliver their first hike since January 2023 after October inflation jumped to 5.25%.