东京 -- 特斯拉和SpaceX创始人埃隆·马斯克的Terafab半导体生产项目已开始与日本芯片制造设备供应商的采购谈判，这种看似超出常理的需求引发了兴奋与困惑。
TOKYO -- Elon Musk's Terafab semiconductor production project has begun procurement talks with Japanese chipmaking equipment suppliers, creating a mix of excitement and bewilderment at demands some see as outlandish.
“一家供应商的高管表示，‘芯片制造行业最大的话题不是Kioxia或Rapidus，而是埃隆·马斯克’，‘而供应商对有潜在新客户感到高兴，但也有人在质疑项目目标的可行性’。”
"The biggest topic in the chipmaking sector is not Kioxia or Rapidus, but Elon Musk," said an executive at one supplier. While suppliers are glad to have a potential new customer, some wonder just how feasible the project's aims are.
Terafab是特斯拉与SpaceX的联合项目，目标是建设位于德克萨斯州的设施，年产量达1万亿瓦时的处理芯片，用于人工智能和机器人。
Terafab is a joint project between Musk's electric vehicle maker Tesla and his space company SpaceX. The aim is to build a facility in Texas that will produce 1 terawatt worth of processing chips annually for artificial intelligence and robotics.
马斯克在10月表示，该公司计划于2028年下半年开始大规模生产。鉴于先进芯片厂房通常从规划到投产至少需要三年时间，这一时间表被业内人士视为异常雄心勃勃，一家日本设备制造商的高管表示。
In October, Musk revealed the company's plan to begin mass production in the second half of 2028. Given that state-of-the-art chip facilities typically take at least three years from planning to production start, the timeframe has been seen as extraordinarily ambitious, according to an executive at a Japanese equipment maker.
马斯克3月首次宣布Terafab项目时，行业内曾对其持怀疑态度。建设和运营芯片制造设施需要专业知识，马斯克对此项目的真实投入程度难以判断。
Musk's initial March announcement of the Terafab project was met with some skepticism from the industry. Building and operating chipmaking facilities require specialized knowledge, and Musk's actual commitment to the project was difficult to gauge.
随着芯片供应与需求紧张持续，马斯克加速了该计划，该项目正逐渐被视为真实需求激增而非纯概念，因为实际订单已开始到位。位于德克萨斯州公司总部附近的SpaceX创始人马斯克雕像。
Musk has fast-tracked the plan amid continued chip supply and demand tightness. The project is starting to be seen as a genuine demand boom rather than purely conceptual as actual orders have started to come in. A statue of SpaceX founder Musk near the company's headquarters in Texas.
据称，设备制造商及其他相关方在今年秋天被口头告知，Terafab计划于2032年开始每月大规模生产相当于100万片硅片的芯片，该数量约为日本芯片制造商Rapidus在日本北部厂房的40倍，Rapidus厂房月产能为25,000片。
Sources have said that manufacturers of chipmaking equipment and others were told informally this fall of Terafab's target of mass producing chips equivalent to 1 million silicon wafers each month, starting in 2032. That volume is around 40 times the capacity of Japanese chipmaker Rapidus' fab in northern Japan, at 25,000 wafers.
按照计划，其中约70万片晶圆将用于存储芯片，略高于30万片将用于计算逻辑芯片。英特尔参与了Terafab项目，因此这家美国芯片巨头的生产技术可能被用于实现这一目标。
The plan is for around 700,000 of those wafers to go toward memory chips, with just over 300,000 going toward logic chips for computing. Intel is involved in the Terafab project, so the U.S. chip giant's production technologies could be used toward the goal.
本月早些时候，Terafab的多名采购人员访问日本，与当地供应商洽谈。该项目正朝着量产的具体准备工作推进。
Earlier this month, a number of procurement officers from Terafab visited Japan to talk with suppliers here. The project is moving toward concrete preparations for mass production.
在10月的财报电话会议上，日本芯片制造设备制造商爱德万测试首席执行官道格拉斯·勒费弗对Terafab项目成为现实并未来成长为一项有意义的业务表示乐观，但没有透露具体细节。
On an earnings call in October, Douglas Lefever, CEO of Japanese chipmaking equipment manufacturer Advantest, expressed optimism about the Terafab project becoming a reality and growing into a meaningful business in the future, but gave no specific details.
同样在10月，台积电董事长兼首席执行官魏哲家表示，公司正在就使用Terafab的产能进行洽谈。
Also that month, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said the company was in talks on using Terafab's production capacity.
据世界半导体贸易统计组织预测，今年全球芯片市场规模将达到1.51万亿美元，同比增长90%，并预计2027年将再增长27%。如果Terafab能够缓解部分供应短缺，可能有助于在2028年及以后进一步推动市场增长。
The global market for chips is forecast to reach $1.51 trillion this year, growing 90% year-over-year, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, and is projected to grow by another 27% in 2027. If Terafab can alleviate some of the supply shortage, it will likely help boost the market further in 2028 and beyond.
外界期望很高，但该计划的可行性尚不明朗，因为供应商能否满足马斯克的要求仍不确定。美国中期选举的结果，包括即将上任的得克萨斯州新州长，也可能阻碍AI投资。
Expectations are high, but the plan's viability is unclear as it remains uncertain whether suppliers can meet Musk's demands. The results of midterm elections in the U.S., including a new incoming Texas governor, also threaten to stymie AI investment.
“订单量很疯狂，但我们唯一的选择就是尽力满足，”一家设备制造商表示。该公司收到了Terafab的订单，要求机器在短短几个月内交付。
"The order is crazy, but our only choice is to do our best to meet it," said one equipment maker who received an order from Terafab for machines to be delivered only a few months out.
“目前尚不清楚SpaceX将有多少芯片需求，”分析师铃木俊也表示。“因此有必要判断，即使工厂建成后，它是否能够充分利用产能。”
"It remains unclear how much chip demand there will be for SpaceX," said analyst Toshiya Suzuki. "So there is a need to determine whether it will be able to fully utilize production capacity even after the factory is built."