Investing.com——贝尔德将英伟达股票评级下调至中性，并将其目标价从500美元下调逾一半至200美元，称对2027年数据中心需求缺乏可见性（主要与供应限制有关），加上美国政府行动和首席执行官任期的不确定性，将使该股维持区间波动。
Investing.com -- Baird downgraded Nvidia stock to Neutral and more than halved its price target to $200 from $500, saying a lack of visibility into 2027 data center demand, mostly tied to supply constraints, and uncertainty over U.S. government action and the CEO’s tenure will keep the stock range-bound.
分析师特里斯坦·格拉推迟了对2027年数据中心需求的预测，并下调了2028年及以后的预估。他写道，超大规模企业的AI资本支出可能在2027年放缓至40%或略低，供应问题“是主要原因”，但最近也出现了需求疲软的迹象。
Analyst Tristan Gerra delayed his 2027 data center forecasts and trimmed his 2028 and later estimates. Hyperscaler AI capital spending could slow to 40% growth or slightly less in 2027, he wrote, with supply issues "mostly the reason" but also very recent signs of softer demand.
此次评级下调是在英伟达股价于本周早些时候大幅下跌之后作出的，此前有报道称，首席执行官黄仁勋与新加坡数据中心公司梅加斯皮德的高管爱丽丝·黄有婚外情。美国情报机构称，该公司一直在向北京传递信息。周三盘前交易中，该股在芯片股更广泛反弹的背景下收复部分失地。
The downgrade comes after Nvidia’s shares fell sharply earlier this week following reports that CEO Jensen Huang had an affair with Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based data center company Megaspeed, which U.S. intelligence agencies say has been passing information to Beijing. The stock recovered some ground in Wednesday premarket trading amid a broader rally in chip stocks.
黄仁勋在一封电子邮件中告诉员工，他对妻子“不忠”，英伟达董事会已对有关他成为“外国情报活动”目标的报道展开独立调查。总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，联邦调查局正在调查。
Huang told staff in an email he had been “unfaithful” to his wife, and Nvidia’s board has opened an independent investigation into reports that he was the target of a “foreign intelligence effort.”President Donald Trump said the FBI is investigating.
格拉表示，在包括即将举行的国会听证会结果、政府调查、渠道调整对收入的影响以及“围绕首席执行官任期的种种不确定因素”等不确定性消除之前，他将保持观望。他认为可能出现两种结果。一是对华H200出口实施新禁令，他表示，鉴于发往亚洲仓库等待中国需求的发货量较低，该禁令可能转化为50亿美元的减记。另一种是收紧出口管制，堵住东南亚数据中心的漏洞，美国司法部可能对梅加斯皮德采取行动，其他面临中国需求风险的运营商也可能因此采取先发制人或被迫行动。
Gerra said he is staying on the sidelines until the uncertainties clear, including the outcome of an upcoming congressional hearing, government investigations, the revenue effect of channel adjustments and "uncertainties around CEO tenure." He sees two likely outcomes. One is a new ban on H200 exports to China, which he said could translate into a $5 billion write-down given low-level shipping into Asia-based warehouses awaiting Chinese demand. The other is tighter export controls closing Southeast Asia data center loopholes, with possible Justice Department action against Megaspeed and resulting pre-emptive or enforced actions by other operators exposed to Chinese demand.
H300芯片需求远超供应，因此美国大规模云服务商应吸收2027年东南亚渠道的任何疲软。但若中国相关需求蒸发或英伟达限制对该地区出货， 可能在单个季度内冭击营收， 收入受损， 现金流受限的大规模云服务商无法填补缺口， 分析师指出。他估计渠道风险敞口在10%到30%之间。
Demand for H300 chips well exceeds supply, so U.S. hyperscalers should absorb any weakness in Southeast Asian channels over 2027. But if China-related demand evaporates or Nvidia restricts shipments to the region, the revenue hit could land in a single quarter, with cash-flow-constrained hyperscalers unable to pick up the slack, the analyst noted. He estimates channels with exposure at 10% to 30%.
这些担忧已在估值中有所体现， 但Gerra认为， 股价“最好在交易区间内维持， 直到尘埃落定。”他指出， 中国订单重置、董事会调查完成、美国政府行动以及FBI和司法部结论为关键标志。。
Some of these concerns are already in the valuation, Gerra said, but he thinks the stock will "at best stay in a trading range until the dust settles." He pointed to a reset in China-derived orders, completion of the board investigation, U.S. government actions and FBI and Justice Department conclusions as the key markers.