这本该是美国最多产油田的产量终于停止增长的一年。随后战争爆发了。
This was supposed to be the year output from America’s most prolific oilfield finally stopped growing. Then came the war.
随着美国对伊朗的袭击推高美国原油价格至每桶115美元以上，二叠纪盆地的石油生产商逐渐开始增产。这并非特朗普政府希望看到的那种激进钻探，以帮助降低汽油价格，一些公司每个季度仅将产量提高几个百分点。但这些温和的增幅正在累积。
As US attacks on Iran sent US crude prices soaring above $115 a barrel, oil producers in the Permian Basin gradually began pumping more. It wasn’t the aggressive drilling the Trump administration wanted to help lower gasoline prices, with some companies bumping up production by just a few percentage points each quarter. But those modest increases are adding up.
据数据和研究公司Enverus称，以二叠纪盆地为首的美国石油生产商有望在今年底前将日产量提高37.8万桶，即2.8%。这高于2025年的1.6%增幅。这相当于比加蓬或刚果共和国（均为OPEC成员国）多泵出的石油量。
US oil producers, led by the Permian, are on track to boost output by 378,000 barrels a day by the end of this year, or 2.8%, according to data and research firm Enverus. That’s up from 1.6% growth in 2025. It amounts to more oil pumped by Gabon or the Republic of Congo, both OPEC members.
Enverus分析师Stephen Sagriff在接受采访时表示：“有大量运营商只是稍微增加一点产量——汇总起来就会产生巨大变化。”
“There’s a ton of operators that are just adding a little bit — which then on aggregate makes a big change,” Stephen Sagriff, an analyst at Enverus, said in an interview.
得克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地过去十年来一直是美国产量爆发式增长的引擎，目前占美国原油产量的近一半。分析师多年来一直预测产量即将见顶，却屡屡被证实错误，因为钻探和技术的进步不断推高产量。
The Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico has been the engine behind the US’s explosive production growth over the last decade and now accounts for nearly half of America’s crude output. Analysts have predicted for years that a peak was imminent, only to be repeatedly proved wrong as advances in drilling and technology kept pushing production ever higher.
全球石油投资者密切关注该盆地，因为美国页岩油钻探商能在几个月内增产——远快于常规生产商——这至关重要，因为波斯湾的供应仍受阻，冲突结束仍遥遥无期。根据Enverus数据，其中85%的额外原油将来自二叠纪盆地。
The basin is closely watched by oil investors around the globe because US shale drillers can ramp up production within months — far faster than conventional producers — which is key as flows from the Persian Gulf remain hampered and an end to the conflict is still elusive. And most of that additional crude, 85% in fact, will come from the Permian, according to Enverus.
页岩油增长的全部程度，并不一定从任何单一季度的财报中显现。相反，随着许多上市美国钻探商反复超越自身预测并上调全年指引，这一趋势在全年中逐渐显现。
The full extent of shale’s growth wasn’t necessarily obvious from any single quarter’s earnings reports. Rather, it emerged over the course of the year as many publicly traded US drillers repeatedly beat their own projections and raised full-year guidance.
Permian Resources 是几家在 2026 年伊始计划基本维持产量稳定的页岩油运营商之一。
Permian Resources was one of several shale operators starting 2026 with plans to largely hold production steady.
“然后在 3 月中旬左右，我们认为这是一个非常独特的赚钱环境，”联席首席执行官 Will Hickey 上周在业绩电话会上对分析师和投资者表示。“我们现在预计将实现超过 10% 的同比有机增长。”但产量提升是以小幅增量的方式实现的。在 2 月发布初步指引后，Permian Resources 于 5 月将全年产量指引上调 1.9%，8 月再次上调 3.4%，最后于 11 月 5 日再上调 1.8%。
“And then in sometime mid-March, we decided this is a very unique money-making environment,” Co-Chief Executive Officer Will Hickey told analysts and investors last week on an earnings call. “We are now going to project to do over 10% year-over-year organic growth.”But the production boost came in small increments. Following its initial guidance in February, Permian Resources revised full-year output higher in May by 1.9%, then raised it again in August by 3.4% and finally on Nov. 5 by another 1.8%.
专注于二叠纪盆地的最大独立石油生产商 Diamondback Energy Inc. 也在本月初发布的第三季度业绩中上调了全年产量指引。加上今年早些时候的其他增幅，该钻探商目前有望比 2025 年多产出 5% 的石油。
Diamondback Energy Inc., the biggest independent oil producer focused solely on the Permian, also boosted its full-year output guidance in third-quarter earnings results reported earlier this month. When added to other increases this year, the driller is now on track to produce 5% more oil than in 2025.
较小的二叠纪盆地运营商 Matador Resources Co. 的产量预计将比去年增长约 7%。该公司最近将最新指引上调了不到 1%。
And output from smaller Permian operator Matador Resources Co. is forecast to be up about 7% compared with last year. The company raised its latest guidance by less than 1% recently.
这些增产发生在特朗普、能源部长 Chris Wright 和内政部长 Doug Burgum 推动美国生产商增产原油之际，此前美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击，将美国油价推高至每桶 119.48 美元的高位。然而，这些增产并未阻止汽油和柴油价格飙升，主要原因是波斯湾冲突和乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击使全球大部分制燃料产能瘫痪。
The gains came as Trump, along with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, pushed US producers to pump more crude after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sending US oil prices as high as $119.48 a barrel. The increases, however, didn’t stop gasoline and diesel prices from soaring, largely because the conflict in the Persian Gulf and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries knocked much of the world’s fuel-making capacity offline.
在之前的石油低迷期将许多生产商逼入破产后，美国页岩油公司已不愿大幅增加钻探。此后投资者要求该行业抵制追逐价格飙升的诱惑，转而将资本纪律作为座右铭。
US shale companies have grown reluctant to aggressively boost drilling after previous oil busts drove many producers into bankruptcy. Investors have since demanded the industry resist the temptation to chase price spikes and instead make capital discipline its mantra.
二叠纪盆地的核心问题是私营公司究竟在多大程度上提高了产量。随着上市同行坚持温和增产，私营运营商正在打开钱包，直接投向钻机，以快速增加产量并利用较高的油价获利。据摩根大通公司称，私营生产商现在占美国钻机总数的55%，高于六个月前的51%。
The big question in the Permian is just how much private companies are boosting output. As their publicly traded counterparts stick to modest gains, private operators are opening their wallets and turning straight to the drilling rigs to quickly add production and capitalize on higher oil prices. Closely held producers are now responsible for 55% of the total US rig count, up from 51% six months ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
据美国商务部10月29日发布的国内生产总值报告，整个美国石油行业——上市公司和私营公司合计——第三季度支出较第二季度增长了17%。这是自2025年初以来单季支出增幅最大的一次。
The entire US oil industry — public companies and closely held firms combined — boosted spending 17% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, according to the US Commerce Department’s gross domestic product report released Oct. 29. It’s the biggest jump in spending for a three-month period since the start of 2025.
技术和效率提升是增长的关键部分，因为二叠纪盆地运营商从每一美元投入中获得了更多产出。
Technology and efficiency gains are a key part of the growth, as Permian operators get more bang for their buck.
据压裂分析公司Primary Vision称，截至11月6日，今年在二叠纪盆地完成井作业的液压压裂队（也称压裂作业组）数量下降了15%。但它们实际完成的压裂作业数量却增长了5%。团队减少、作业增多且速度加快，使每个队的效率提升了23%。
The number of hydraulic fracturing crews, also known as frack spreads, completing wells in the Permian has dropped by 15% this year through Nov. 6, according to fracking analytics firm Primary Vision. But the number of actual frack jobs they’re doing has grown by 5%. Fewer teams doing more jobs faster has led to a 23% boost in efficiency for each crew.
Primary Vision首席执行官马特·约翰逊表示：“是的，压裂作业组变少了，但它们规模更大、效率更高。它们的运行时间达到22小时，而三年前可能只有12或16小时。”他指的是近乎全天候的运行时间。
“Yes, the frack spreads are less, but they’re bigger and they’re more efficient. Their uptimes are 22 hours versus maybe 12 or 16 even three years ago,” said Matt Johnson, chief executive officer at Primary Vision, referring to almost round-the-clock running times.
更快的钻井速度是另一个关键因素，因为快速投产能降低石油公司的成本，并让生产利润更早流入资产负债表。据该公司最近的财报电话会议透露，在二叠纪资源公司有史以来钻进速度最快的10口井中，有5口出现在第三季度，包括其历史最快纪录，日均钻进2700英尺。这意味着一口四英里长的井可在一周多一点的时间内钻完。效率提升可能是页岩油缓慢而稳健的增长将持续下去的证据。
Faster drilling is another critical factor as bringing wells online quickly drives down an oil company’s costs and gets profits from production flowing into the balance sheet sooner. Of the 10 fastest wells that Permian Resources has ever drilled, five came in the third quarter, including its all-time quickest, averaging 2,700 feet drilled in a day, according to the company’s most recent earnings call. That means a four-mile well could be drilled in a little more than a week. The efficiency gains may be evidence that shale’s slow-and-steady growth is here to stay.
“我们已经让这些家伙认识到，需要建立纪律，而不是追求增长，”彭博情报分析师文森特·皮亚扎在电话采访中说。“过去两年里，他们可能已经悔过自新，没有像以往周期那样大量增产。”
“We have knocked into these guys the need to create discipline as opposed to growth,” Vincent Piazza, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a phone interview. “They may have found religion over the last two years and haven’t pumped as much as they probably would have in prior cycles.”