Macro Risk Advisors LLC表示，美联储本周可能启动的加息或引发标普500指数回调，因企业利润率下降打击盈利前景，而且市场准备迎接一个紧缩周期。标普500指数9月迄今下跌近1%，势将创下今年以来最差月度表现，围绕能源成本高企的担忧以及近期公布的通胀数据推动美国10年期国债收益率自2023年以来首次升破5%。这种观点促使交易员几乎完全消化了美联储主席凯文·沃什周三加息25个基点的可能性，一周前消化的概率约为60%。Macro Risk Advisors首席执行官兼创始人Dean Curnutt表示，周三加息可能会带来更多痛苦。

“We expect an 8-10% pullback in S&P with a potential second leg in December,” he wrote in a Monday note to clients. Rate hikes will “compress margins in companies that cannot pass costs through” as well as deliver a volatility shock into a market that is not positioned for it, he said. Curnutt said the setup is akin to what investors saw in 2018, when the S&P 500 peaked in September and then plunged 10% over the course of October and November. That year, Curnutt warned, “The Santa Claus rally did not come” and the market took another leg lower in December, eventually dropping almost 20% from its peak. Given the history, “a defensive posture is the correct approach,” he said. Similar to 2018, he is expecting the market to take another leg lower in December in response to multiple Fed hikes “into a K-shaped, low-churn economy.”