在秋季收获季节，农民们面临着高昂的成本和不确定的收益前景。里克·泰莱兹（Rick Telesz）在宾夕法尼亚州西部大约700英亩的土地上种植大豆、玉米，并饲养奶牛。他预计今年的大豆收成会不错——但即便如此，他也很可能只能勉强实现收支平衡。
Farmers face big expenses and an uncertain bottom line during fall harvest season Rick Telesz raises soybeans, corn and dairy cows on about 700 acres in western Pennsylvania. He's expecting a promising soybean crop this fall — but Telesz will be lucky to just break even.
“今年我还能赚钱吗？”他问道，“说实话，我希望收成能够好到足以支付今年春夏两季的所有投入成本。”泰莱兹种植作物所需的肥料和燃料价格都大幅上涨：由于美国与伊朗的冲突，这些成本更是急剧上升，这无疑加剧了农民们已经面临的困境（尤其是贸易战带来的影响）。
"Am I going to make money this year?" he asks. "To be honest, I hope the harvest is good enough that I can pay for all those inputs I had this spring and summer." The inputs Telesz needs to raise his crops include fertilizer and fuel, which have both gotten a lot more expensive as a result of the U.S. war with Iran — adding to the woes of farmers already struggling with the fallout from the trade war. Fertilizer prices are up 15% this year compared to last, and the price of diesel fuel has jumped by 80%, making it hard for farmers to turn a profit.
与去年相比，今年肥料的价格上涨了15%，柴油的价格更是飙升了80%，这使得农民们难以盈利。泰莱兹购买柴油的价格约为每加仑6美元，而他使用的联合收割机每天就要消耗150加仑柴油；用于烘干谷物的机器则消耗更多的燃料。
Telesz is paying about $6 a gallon for diesel and his combine alone burns through 150 gallons a day. The machines he uses to dry his grain burn more fuel.
“这些成本是农民无法转嫁给别人的，”泰莱兹说，“以运输行业为例，运输费用确实上涨了，但农民只能自己承担这些额外开支。这真的很痛苦。”贸易战也对农民的收益造成了严重影响。中国历来是美国农产品出口的第三大市场，但由于特朗普总统征收关税，中国去年大幅削减了进口量；今年美国对中国的农产品出口仅部分恢复了。
"It's a cost that a farmer can't pass on," Telesz says. "You take your trucking industry, it's just added to the freight [charge]. But a farmer, it's just an added cost he just has to absorb. It's real. It's painful." Trade war also eats into farmers' bottom line The trade war with China has also been a headache. China is historically the third biggest market for U.S. farm exports, but the country slashed its purchases last year in retaliation for President Trump's tariffs. Farm sales to China this year have only partially recovered.
经济学家查德·鲍恩本周在彼得森国际经济研究所对听众表示：“大豆出口略有回升，但目前（中国的采购量）远低于特朗普2.0时代之前的水平。对于所有其他产品——棉花、小麦、猪肉、牛肉——其出口在2025年遭到毁灭性打击，且没有迹象表明它们会恢复。”美国农业部预计，随着农作物价格反弹以及农民售出更多蒲式耳和包的大豆、玉米和棉花，今年农业收入将会增加。
"Soybeans are coming back a little bit, but currently [China's purchases] are at much, much lower levels than they were pre-Trump 2.0," economist Chad Bown told an audience this week at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "For all of the other products — cotton, wheat, pork, beef — the exports were devastated in 2025, and there's no evidence of them coming back." The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that farm revenue will increase this year, as crop prices rebound and farmers sell more bushels and bales of soybeans, corn and cotton.
但大部分额外收入将被不断上升的支出吞噬。据预测，2026年所有主要大宗农作物的生产者将连续第四年出现亏损。
But much of that extra income will be gobbled up by rising expenses. Producers of all of the major row crops are projected to lose money in 2026 for the fourth year in a row.
美国农业局联合会的经济学家费斯·帕鲁姆表示：“他们种植作物的成本大幅增加，获得的收益却远远不够。我们的农业经济一直过得很艰难。”农业带的艰难时期仍在继续。帕鲁姆说，自2020年以来，全美约有20万家农场倒闭。
"They're paying way more to grow a crop and they're not making near enough for it," says economist Faith Parum of the American Farm Bureau Federation. "We've had a tough time in the farm economy." Hard times continue in the farm belt Nationwide, some 200,000 farms have gone out of business since 2020, Parum says.
在艾奥瓦州、密苏里州和伊利诺伊州为农民代理破产业务的律师乔·佩弗说：“农民们在说，‘我们准备放弃了’。”他说，客户告诉他：“我们受够了拼死拼活干却还在赔钱的日子。”在截至6月的12个月里，农业破产案比上年增加了19%。但大多数农民并不愿彻底退出这一行业。
"Farmers are saying, 'we're ready to throw in the towel,'" says Joe Peiffer, a bankruptcy attorney who works with farmers in Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. He says clients tell him, "We're sick of working our back ends off and losing money." For the 12 months ending in June, farm bankruptcies were up 19% from the previous year. But most farmers are reluctant to quit the business altogether.
佩弗说：“大多数农民会一直种地，直到银行家不肯再借给他们一毛钱为止。”
"Most farmers will farm until the banker won't loan them another dime," Peiffer says.
拥有土地的农民可以尝试通过变卖部分资产来争取时间，但这通常是无奈之举。
Farmers who own land can try to buy time by selling off some of their property, but that's usually a last resort.
“最难的事情是说服农民出售部分家族农场，”佩弗说。“我可以再买一台拖拉机，再买一台联合收割机。但我无法再买回那40英亩土地，因为在我还在经营期间，它很可能不会上市出售。”佩弗表示，大多数农民会尽一切努力维持经营，希望成本下降、作物价格上涨——并希望明年的收成能比今年好一些。
"The hardest thing to do is get a farmer to sell part of the family farm," Peiffer says. "I can go buy another tractor, buy another combine. But I can't buy that 40 acres again because it probably won't come on the market while I'm still in business." Peiffer says most farmers will do whatever they can to stay in business, hoping that costs go down, crop prices go up — and that somehow next year's harvest will be better than this one.