在过去的政治竞选活动中,辩论几乎是必不可少的环节。然而如今,候选人越来越倾向于将辩论视为可有可无的环节——甚至认为辩论可能给自己带来政治上的麻烦(即成为竞选中的不利因素)。
Debates in political campaigns used to be a given. Today, candidates increasingly view them as optional — or a political liability to be avoided. Why it matters:
为何这值得关注:在当前这场以巨额竞选开支和对比性广告为特征的中期选举中,候选人本身却极不愿意进行面对面的辩论。
In a midterm cycle dominated by unprecedented spending contrast ads, the candidates themselves are remarkably reluctant to challenge each other face-to-face.
- 这反映了竞选活动的演变趋势,以及传统政治规范的逐渐瓦解:虽然候选人在党派和超级政治行动委员会(super PACs)的推动下仍试图攻击对手,但他们选择通过远程方式来进行攻击。
• It's a sign of how campaigns have evolved, and an erosion of norms: Candidates — fueled by their parties and super PACs — still try to tear apart the opposition, they just do it from a distance. • In the age of short, shareable video clips, TV debates offer candidates equal parts opportunity and risk: An electric moment can travel far and wide, but so can an unforced error.
- 在这个短视频广泛传播的时代,电视辩论对候选人来说既是机会也是风险:一个精彩的辩论瞬间可以迅速传播开来,但一个失误的言论也可能造成严重的负面影响。
By the numbers:
数据说明:根据 Axios 的统计,在竞争最为激烈的10场州长选举中,有半数选举的双方候选人并未达成辩论协议(涉及亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州)。
In 10 of the most closely watched races for governor, there are no agreed-upon debates between the major-party nominees in half of them — Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Texas, according to an Axios review of scheduled debates. • Four years ago, just two of those 10 gubernatorial contests went without a debate.
- 四年前,这10场选举中只有2场没有举行辩论。
• In 10 tight Senate races this year, there are no debates scheduled in three states — North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. That's up from one debate-free race in the same seats last time around.
- 在今年竞争激烈的10场参议院选举中,有3个州(北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州)没有安排辩论;而去年同期,只有1个州没有辩论。
• Some campaigns are still dickering over possible venues and moderators, and more debates could be added closer to the Nov. 3 election.
- 一些竞选团队仍在为辩论的场地和主持人等问题争论不休;更多的辩论可能会在11月3日大选前夕被追加安排。
Driving the news:
最新动态:佛罗里达州民主党州长候选人戴维·乔利成为最新宣布不参加辩论的候选人。他周日表示:“我认为他行事不诚恳,还在不断撒谎;你无法与一个骗子进行辩论。”共和党候选人拜伦·唐纳兹回应称乔利“很害怕”。
Florida's Democratic nominee for governor, David Jolly, became the latest official no-show when he said Sunday that he wouldn't debate Republican Rep. Byron Donalds. • "I think he's acting with bad faith and continues to peddle lies," Jolly said. "You can't debate a liar." • Donalds called Jolly "scared."
如果这次辩论未能举行,这将是自1974年以来佛罗里达州州长选举首次没有辩论的年份;乔利和唐纳兹在初选时也没有与各自的对手进行辩论。
• This is would be the first time since 1974 that Florida hasn't had a debate among contenders for governor. Neither Jolly not Donalds debated their primary opponents. Zoom out:
宏观视角:这种趋势不仅反映了竞选方式的改变,也暴露了当代政治环境中的一些问题——候选人越来越倾向于通过非直接的方式攻击对手,而忽视了辩论作为公开交流和展示观点的重要平台的作用。
Jolly's debate dodge — unexpected for a financially outgunned Democrat running in a red state— is part of a broader pattern in which challengers and incumbents are making strategic decisions not to debate. • In some cases, they enumerate their reasons. In others, they aren't offering much of an explanation.
乔利的这种“回避辩论”的策略实在出人意料——毕竟她是一位在保守派占优势的州参选的民主党候选人,且在经济资源上处于劣势。这种现象其实反映了更普遍的趋势:无论是挑战者还是现任官员,都在选择不参加辩论。
In Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton is refusing to debate Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, citing personal attacks against her and her family. • "I will not be giving a platform to someone who I think is not just out of touch and not right, for I think he is a danger," Acton said.
在俄亥俄州:民主党州长候选人艾米·阿克顿拒绝与共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米进行辩论,理由是对方对她及其家人进行了人身攻击。
In Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who debated Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke in 2022, hasn't agreed to debate Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa this year. No explanation given.
“我不会给一个我认为不仅脱离现实、而且行为不当的人提供发言机会,因为我认为他是个危险人物,”阿克顿表示。
Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford says he's accepted two invitations to debate Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. But Lombardo hasn't publicly committed to them — or commented about it.
在德克萨斯州:2022年曾与民主党挑战者贝托·奥罗克进行过辩论的共和党州长格雷格·阿博特,今年拒绝与民主党州众议员吉娜·希诺霍萨进行辩论,且未给出任何解释。
Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford says he's accepted two invitations to debate Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. But Lombardo hasn't publicly committed to them — or commented about it. Yes, but:
不过也有例外……艾奥瓦州的情况显得与众不同:该州在2022年只举行过一次州长辩论,但今年却安排了四次辩论活动——这表明随着特朗普及其政策的支持率在农村地区急剧下降,这个由共和党主导的州的政治竞争变得异常激烈。
One state stands out from the rest, Iowa. It had one gubernatorial debate in 2022, but has four scheduled this fall, a sign of how hotly contested the Republican-led state has become as support for Trump and his policies has cratered in farm country. The intrigue: Arizona Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is one of the few candidates who's declined to debate this year and also declined to debate her opponent four years ago. But she's tweaked her rationale.
背后的隐情:亚利桑那州民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯是少数今年拒绝参加辩论的候选人之一;四年前她也曾拒绝与对手进行辩论。不过她的理由有所变化:2022年面对共和党候选人卡里·莱克时,霍布斯认为莱克(特朗普的忠实支持者)会把辩论变成一场闹剧——充满无意义的干扰和幼稚的互相攻击。
• In 2022, when she faced Republican Kari Lake, Hobbs argued that Lake, a Trump loyalist, would turn a debate into a spectacle, with "constant interruptions, pointless distractions, and childish name-calling." • This year, Hobbs is refusing to debate Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, offering a new explanation: Her campaign says engaging directly with Arizonans is more effective than a debate stage built for "short soundbites and political theater."
而今年,霍布斯拒绝与共和党众议员安迪·比格斯进行辩论,并给出了新的理由:她的竞选团队认为,直接与亚利桑那州的选民沟通比通过辩论来传达信息更为有效。
Even the Senate — an institution built around debate — isn't immune.
连参议院这个以辩论为核心的机构也不例外……
• In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has accepted invitations to three televised debates against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton's campaign says he'll debate Talarico but hasn't committed to any of the proposed events. (On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to debate on Fox News, which he called "Ken Paxton's safe space.")
- 在德克萨斯州,民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科已接受三场电视辩论的邀请,将与共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿对决。帕克斯顿的竞选团队表示他将与塔拉里科辩论,但尚未承诺参加任何提议的活动。(周四,塔拉里科挑战帕克斯顿在福克斯新闻频道进行辩论,他称该频道是“肯·帕克斯顿的安全区”。)
• In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has accepted invitations to three televised debates against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton's campaign says he'll debate Talarico but hasn't committed to any of the proposed events. (On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to debate on Fox News, which he called "Ken Paxton's safe space.")
- 在北卡罗来纳州,前州长罗伊·库珀(民主党)和前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利均未接受至少三份辩论邀请中的任何一份,尽管两人都表示愿意辩论。
• In North Carolina, neither former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) nor Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair, have accepted any of at least three debate invitations, although both have indicated they're open to debating.
- 在俄亥俄州,前参议员谢罗德·布朗(民主党)表示他假设将与共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德辩论,但目前尚未安排任何日程。
• In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) said he assumes he'll debate Republican Sen. Jon Husted, but nothing has been scheduled. What they're saying:
他们怎么说:资深共和党辩论备战顾问布雷特·奥唐奈表示,辩论的消失对民主不利,但这反映了竞选和媒体格局正在发生变化。
Brett O'Donnell, a veteran GOP debate-prep consultant, said the disappearance of debates is bad for democracy, but it's a sign of how the campaign and media landscape are changing. • "There's so much more money in campaigns now, and a way to get messages out on social media," he said.
- “现在竞选资金多得多,而且可以通过社交媒体传播信息,”他说。
• "There's so much more money in campaigns now, and a way to get messages out on social media," he said.
- “我们生活在一个人们在网上看15秒就会失去耐心的世界,”奥唐奈补充道。“到底有多少人会真正看完一小时的辩论?”
• "We live in a world where people get impatient after watching something for 15 seconds online," O'Donnell added. "How many people will actually watch an hour-long debate?"