距离中期选举还有39天，在特朗普总统所在政党的选情日益黯淡之际，共和党高层表示，他们将把精力集中在最后冲刺阶段的三个重大问题上：
With midterms 39 days away and the outlook for President Trump 's party looking increasingly bleak, top Republicans say they're focused on three big questions for the final stretch:
- 他们的攻击性广告起作用了吗？共和党人预计，10月初的一波内部民调将揭示他们巨大的资金优势是否正在削弱民主党的领先地位。
• Are their attack ads working? Republicans expect a wave of private polling in early October to reveal whether their massive financial advantage is cutting into Democrats' leads.
- 根据竞选财务专家罗布·派尔斯（Rob Pyers）的数据，截至9月23日，共和党团体已经花费了超过4.5亿美元，是民主党支出的一倍多。
• Are their attack ads working? Republicans expect a wave of private polling in early October to reveal whether their massive financial advantage is cutting into Democrats' leads.
但共和党战略家表示，在选民对高物价、数据中心以及特朗普在伊朗的战争感到愤怒的大背景下，这轮广告轰炸是否奏效，他们目前还不确定。
• GOP groups had spent more than $450 million through Sept. 23, more than twice what Democrats had spent, according to campaign finance expert Rob Pyers. But Republican strategists say they aren't sure
- 特朗普的政治团队直到劳动节前后才开始将4.16亿美元的竞选资金投入到攻击性广告中，共和党人认为这些广告需要时间才能发挥作用。
yet whether the barrage is working amid voter anger over high prices, data centers and Trump's war in Iran.
- 战略家们正密切关注得克萨斯州的参议院竞选，全国共和党团体已投入超过1亿美元，帮助肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）对抗民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）。多项民调显示，长期被共和党领袖视为问题候选人的帕克斯顿一直落后于塔拉里科。
• Trump's political operation didn't begin pouring its $416 million war chest into attack ads until around Labor Day, and Republicans argue the ads need time to sink in. • Strategists are particularly watching the Texas Senate race, where national GOP groups have sunk more than $100 million into helping Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. Several polls have shown Paxton — whom GOP leaders have long viewed as a problematic nominee — trailing Talarico.
“9月是对你的信息能否在竞选中发挥作用的检验——而10月初则是选战格局最终锁定的时候，”一位共和党战略家对Axios表示。
"September tests whether
谁会被抛弃？共和党人承认，他们将不得不在10月初做出痛苦的资金削减决定。
your messaging moves the needle in races — and early October is when the map locks in," a Republican strategist told Axios.
- 这可能会使佐治亚州的共和党参议员候选人迈克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）和北卡罗来纳州的迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）情况复杂化，尽管共和党投入了数百万美元，但他们的民调一直落后于民主党人乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）和罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）。
Who gets cut loose? Republicans concede they'll have to make painful spending decisions by early October. • That could complicate things for GOP Senate contenders Mike Collins in Georgia and Michael Whatley in North Carolina, who have consistently trailed Democrats Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper despite millions in Republicans' spending.
如果柯林斯和沃特利的民调数据没有改善，共和党人表示他们可能会将资金重新投向密歇根州和新罕布什尔州，该党目前正在这两个州主动发起进攻。
If Collins and Whatley's numbers don't improve, Republicans say they could redirect money to Michigan and New Hampshire, where the party is playing offense.
- 共和党人还可能不得不花更多的钱在堪萨斯州等传统红州，民调显示，该州的共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）正展开激烈的竞争。
• Republicans also may have to spend more in traditionally red states such as Kansas, where polls show GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in a tight race against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
- 如果汉密尔顿获胜，他将成为自1932年以来首位赢得堪萨斯州参议院席位的民主党人。这场选举竞争非常激烈，以至于副总统万斯都专程来到该州，试图为马歇尔提供支持。
• Hamilton would be the first Kansas Democrat to win a Senate seat since 1932. The race is tight enough to have drawn Vice President Vance to the state for a recent visit to try to give Marshall a boost.
与此同时，特朗普的政治团队已经开始为南卡罗来纳州的一个众议院选区投入资金进行竞选活动。在2024年的选举中，特朗普在该选区以13个百分点的优势获胜。
Trump's political operation, meanwhile, has begun spending to defend a South Carolina House district that Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. What does Trump do?
特朗普会采取什么行动？特朗普及其政治团队仍是这次中期选举的最大不确定性因素之一。
The president and his political team remain one of the midterms' biggest question marks.
- 今年早些时候，特朗普的团队表示他会每周为共和党候选人进行竞选活动，但实际上并未兑现这一承诺。现在特朗普表示，他将在最后30天内为35个关键的参议院和众议院选区的候选人进行竞选活动。
• Trump's team said early this year that he'd campaign weekly for GOP candidates. That didn't happen. Trump now says he'll spend the final 30 days campaigning for candidates in 35 key Senate and House races.
- 共和党策略师们希望在10月初看到特朗普是否真的会履行这一承诺；如果他真的这么做，他会前往哪些选区进行竞选。
• By early October, Republican strategists expect to see whether he'll follow through — and, if he does, where he goes. Where Trump doesn't go
特朗普选择不参与哪些选区的竞选？这也同样具有重要的参考意义。在一些竞争激烈的选区中，一些共和党人与不受欢迎的特朗普政府保持距离。
could be just as telling. Some Republicans in competitive races are keeping their distance from the unpopular administration • When Vance visited Iowa last week, GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson didn't appear, citing previously scheduled events.
- 当万斯上周访问爱荷华州时，共和党参议院候选人阿什利·欣森以已有安排的活动为由没有出席相关活动。
could be just as telling. Some Republicans in competitive races are keeping their distance from the unpopular administration • When Vance visited Iowa last week, GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson didn't appear, citing previously scheduled events.
- 另一个问题是特朗普愿意投入多少竞选资金。策略师们认为，这一问题的答案将在10月初揭晓。
• Then there's the question of how much Trump's willing to spend. Strategists say that should become clear in early October.