如果近期的民意调查属实，共和党正面临一场选举惨败。虽然执政党在中期选举中陷入困境是常态，但如今共和党的处境要危险得很——很大一部分原因在于唐纳德·特朗普总统决定对伊朗发动战争。
If recent public opinion polling is correct, the Republican Party is on the verge of an electoral bloodbath. While it’s typical for the incumbent party to struggle in midterm elections, the situation today for the GOP is far more perilous — and a big part of the reason is President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war against Iran.
战争爆发已逾200天，显而易见，伊朗战争是一场战略灾难，这一观点为美国民众广泛认同。对战争的支持率长期徘徊在30%出头，但令共和党更为担忧的是战争的二阶和三阶效应。
More than 200 days since it began, it’s clear that the Iran war is a strategic disaster, and that view is widely shared by the American people. Support for the war routinely polls in the low-30s but of greater concern for Republicans are the second and third order effects of the war.
自战争爆发以来，汽油价格上涨约50%——且本月飙升。加油站的价格冲击推高了通胀，导致机票价格上涨逾20%（因航空燃油成本上升），甚至使抵押贷款利率跳升1.25个百分点，因为美联储被迫维持较高利率。
Gas prices are up around 50% since the war began — and have spiked this month Sticker shock at the pump has contributed to higher inflation, a more than 20% rise in airline ticket prices (because of higher jet fuel costs) and even a 1.25 percentage point jump in mortgage rates, because the Federal Reserve has been forced to keep interest rates higher.
根据我本周为位于华盛顿特区的非党派外交政策智库斯汀森中心撰写的一份新报告，穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪估算，战争总成本达2200亿美元——相当于每个美国普通家庭约1650美元。
new report I wrote this week for the Stimson Center a nonpartisan foreign policy think tank in Washington, D.C., Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated the total cost of the war at $220 billion — that’s approximately $1,650 per average American household.
五角大楼在伊朗这场惨败中承担的费用约为400亿美元，且成本仍在持续增加。更糟糕的是，据五角大楼监察长报告，美国使用了大量炸弹、导弹和拦截弹，严重耗尽了其弹药储备。据报道，到8月，美军已动用了80%的“萨德”反导拦截弹库存，以及约一半的“爱国者”拦截弹。美军几乎耗尽了所有陆军战术导弹系统和精确打击导弹。这些是任何与中国发生冲突时预期依赖的远程武器。
The Pentagon’s share of the Iran debacle is around $40 billion and the costs keep ticking up. To make matters worse, the United States has used so many bombs, missiles and interception that it has severely depleted its stockpile of munitions, according to a report from the Pentagon’s inspector general By August, reports say the U.S. military had used 80% of its THAAD interceptor inventory and around half of its Patriot interceptors. The U.S. Army“virtually all” of its Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles. These are long-range weapons expected to be relied on in any conflict with China.
补充美国军火储备可能需要数年时间——而弹药供应的减少已经在远东和欧洲产生了重大后果。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国关键盟友反映武器装备运输出现延误，并日益担忧美国根本不具备履行其同盟和条约义务的能力，一旦冲突爆发将难以兑现承诺。
It could take years to replenish U.S. stockpiles — and the diminished supply of munitions is already having significant consequences in the Far East and Europe. According to the Washington Post, key U.S. allies report delays in arms shipments and growing fears that the U.S. simply lacks the capabilities to uphold its alliance and treaty obligations if a conflict were to emerge.
尽管这一方面鲜受关注，但伊朗战争也造成了极其惨重的伤亡。据国防部数据，有18名美军士兵在战斗中阵亡（尽管有报道称实际数字可能高达22或23人），820多人受伤。但这些数字仅讲述了故事的一小部分。
While this aspect has received little attention, the Iran war has also been extraordinarily deadly. According to the Defense Department, 18 U.S. service members have been killed in combat (though some reporting suggests the number could be as high as 22 or 23) and more than 820 wounded. But those numbers tell only a small part of the story.
“屋里最蠢的人”：加列戈参议员抨击特朗普的伊朗谈判团队 2026年9月23日 很难获得确切数字，但截至目前，伊朗战争的总死亡人数估计在8000至10000人之间。大多数遇难者为伊朗平民，但真主党为声援伊朗而轰炸以色列北部目标，引发以色列大规模军事回应，导致黎巴嫩也有数千人丧生。整个地区多国共有近5万人受伤，其中包括因伊朗导弹袭击而受伤的近8000名以色列人。
‘Dumbest people in the room’: Sen. Gallego rips Trump’s Iran negotiating team September 23, 2026 It’s difficult to get concrete numbers but, to date, the total death toll for the Iran war is estimated at between 8,000 and 10,000 people. Most of those killed have been Iranian civilians, but also thousands in Lebanon were killed after Hezbollah, in solidarity with Iran, started bombing targets in northern Israel, leading to a significant Israeli military response. Close to 50,000 have been injured in a host of countries across the region, including nearly 8,000 in Israel from Iranian missile strikes.
如此大规模的死亡和破坏，给美国国家安全利益带来任何积极收益了吗？几乎没有。事实上，美国未能实现其几乎所有核心目标，这令人震惊。
Has all this death and destruction brought any positive benefit to U.S. national security interests? Hardly. In fact, the failure of the U.S. to achieve nearly any of its key objectives is remarkable.
当特朗普于2月下旬宣布对伊朗开战决定时，他列出了四大核心目标——终结伊朗核计划、摧毁其导弹工业、歼灭其海军力量，以及终止伊朗对中东恐怖代理人的支持。
When Trump announced his decision to go to war with Iran in late February, he outlined four key objectives — ending Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its missile industry, annihilating its navy and ending Iran’s support for terrorist proxies in the Middle East.
在2月至4月初的第一波袭击结束后，美国与伊朗达成了停火协议，但上述关键目标均未实现。诚然，美国对伊朗海军造成了巨大破坏，但这并未阻止德黑兰封锁波斯湾的海上交通。诚然，伊朗的导弹工业已遭到严重削弱，但我们的报告发现，该工业远未被摧毁，伊朗仍保有数百枚甚至数千枚导弹，足以向整个地区投射军事力量。
Following the initial wave of attacks that began in February and ended at the beginning of April, when the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, none of these key objectives had been achieved. Yes, the U.S. had done enormous damage to the Iranian navy, but that didn’t prevent Teheran from blocking maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf. Yes, Iran’s missile industry had been significantly degraded, but our report found it was far from destroyed and still maintains hundreds if not thousands of missiles that can be used to project military power across the region.
因此，一些国会共和党人开始与这场战争保持距离，并敦促特朗普结束冲突，这并不令人意外。
It’s small wonder that some congressional Republicans are starting to distance themselves from the war and urging Trump to end the conflict.
然而，最能说明伊朗战争已严重失控的是，美国最初的所有目标均已被抛弃，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以恢复海上交通成为了这场战争的压倒性目标——这一目标之所以必要，完全是因为最初决定发动战争，进而导致伊朗封锁了该海峡。
But what is most telling about how far the Iran war has gone off the rails is that all of America’s initial goals have been cast aside with reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic becoming the overarching goal of the war — a goal that is only necessary because of the initial decision to go to war, which led to Iran closing the strait.
事实上，尽管政府官员继续声称这场战争对于阻止伊朗发展核武器是必要的，但根据斯坦福大学国际安全与合作中心核专家杰弗里·刘易斯博士的说法，4月之后美国的袭击“没有一次”针对伊朗的核计划。相反，美国的军事行动几乎完全集中在阻止伊朗干扰海湾地区的海上交通。事实上，尽管轰炸行动是间歇性的，但美国仍在持续对伊朗的船只和港口实施封锁。
Indeed, while administration officials continue to claim that the war is necessary to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, according to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, “none” of the post-April U.S. attacks have focused on Iran’s nuclear program. Rather, U.S. military operations are focused almost exclusively on preventing Iran from interfering with maritime traffic in the Gulf. Indeed, while bombing attacks are episodic, the U.S. continues to maintain a blockage on Iranian ships and ports.
简而言之，美国未能实现其关键目标；如今，其焦点集中在一个因仓促决定发动战争而直接产生的目标上，而冲突的成本仍在不断攀升，并直接影响着几乎每一位美国人的钱包。
In short, the U.S. has failed to achieve its key objectives; it is now focused on one that is a direct result of the ill-advised decision to go to war, and the costs of the conflict continue to rise and directly affect the wallets of nearly every American.
他们拒绝支持任何要求特朗普结束这场战争的立法。但即便这种情况真的发生（目前几乎没有迹象表明白宫正在积极寻求结束战争的途径），其影响仍可能持续数周甚至数月。
refuses to back legislation that would direct Trump to end the war). But even if that were to happen — and there’s little indication that the White House is actively seeking an off-ramp to war — the impact will likely continue to be felt for weeks or months to come.
对于共和党人来说，以及那些希望在国会中取代他们的民主党人来说，一场政治清算即将到来；现在唯一的问题是，这场清算对共和党的打击会有多严重。特朗普自己选择的这场战争，以及它给美国和世界带来的严重后果，很可能是导致共和党失败的最大因素。
For Republicans — and Democrats hoping to replace them in Congress — a political reckoning is coming and the only question now is how bad will it be for the GOP. Trump’s war of choice, and the dire consequences it has brought for America and the world, could be the biggest factor in that defeat.
特朗普发动的这场战争正将共和党推向灾难的边缘，而相关数据（如支持率、民意调查结果等）却持续恶化。
The post Trump’s war has the GOP teetering on the edge of disaster. And the numbers keep getting worse.
（注：根据用户要求，翻译内容已保持简洁明了的风格，同时保留了原文的逻辑结构与重点信息。）
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