“如果唐纳德·特朗普足够荒诞,在2028年发起一场无党派提名的竞选,并且尽管可能性微乎其微,他真的赢了,他能否开启第三个任期?”——戴夫戴夫,你好。美国宪法第二十二修正案规定:“任何人不得当选总统超过两次。”特朗普已经两次当选总统(分别在2016年和2024年)。因此,他无法第三次当选。
“If Donald Trump were perverse enough to run a write-in campaign for 2028 president, and, as unlikely as it would be, he won, would he be able to take up a third term?” — Dave Hi Dave, The 22nd Amendment says, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Trump has already been elected twice (in 2016 and 2024). Therefore, he cannot be elected a third time.
发起无党派提名竞选,而非作为共和党正式候选人参选,并不会改变这一事实。事实上,由于无党派提名竞选本身胜算渺茫,他这只是在用一种更迂回的方式从事非法行为。有些州甚至根本不允许无党派提名。
Running a write-in campaign, as opposed to running as the official GOP nominee, wouldn’t change that. If anything, due to the long-shot nature of write-in campaigns, he would just be doing something unlawful in a more convoluted way. Some states don’t even allow write-ins.
为了澄清,你提出的问题以及我目前的回答,都是关于特朗普再次当选总统的情况。在此背景下,我还看到过另一种被提出的情景:他作为副总统重返白宫,而现任总统(例如JD·万斯)辞职,特朗普随后第三次成为总统。
To be clear, your question and my answer thus far are about Trump being to again. On that note, another scenario I have seen floated is that he returns to the White House as and the president (say, JD Vance) resigns and Trump becomes president a third time.
乍一看,这种策略似乎可以规避第二十二修正案关于“不得当选总统超过两次”的禁令。但即便该条款不再构成障碍,仍然存在另一道屏障:第十二修正案。该修正案规定:“任何依宪法不具备总统任职资格的人,也不得具备副总统任职资格。”由于第二十二修正案使他在2028年丧失总统任职资格,第十二修正案似乎也会使他丧失副总统任职资格。
At first glance, such a gambit might seem to evade the 22nd Amendment’s prohibition on being elected president more than twice. But even if that provision were no longer an impediment, there’s still another barrier: the 12th Amendment. That one says “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President.” Because the 22nd Amendment disqualifies him from the presidency in 2028, the 12th Amendment would appear to disqualify him from the vice presidency, too.
当然,这一切都只是假设,不过鉴于这位总统迄今为止的反民主行径,人们产生这样的疑问也在情理之中。至于他是否会在2028年再次参选以进一步考验宪法,不妨想想对她十分了解的记者玛吉·哈伯曼(Maggie Haberman)最近的言论。她表示,她认为他并不想要第三个任期。她说他“不需要这个”,而且无论他是否在任,“只要他还在世,他就会一直是”共和党内“最具主导地位的人物”。请通过此表单提交“问问乔丹”(Ask Jordan)的问题,即有机会让您的提问在《Deadline:法律》通讯的未来期数中登场。
Of course, this is all hypothetical, though it is fair to wonder in light of the president’s antidemocratic actions to date. As for whether he will further test the Constitution with a 2028 run, consider the recent remarks of journalist Maggie Haberman, who knows him well. She said she didn’t think he wanted a third term. She said he “doesn’t need it” and that he’d be “the dominant figure” in the Republican Party “until he is no longer on this Earth, whether he’s in office or not.” Please submit “Ask Jordan” questions through this form for a chance to have your question featured in a future edition of the Deadline: Legal newsletter.