加利福尼亚州卡尔斯巴德，9月25日电——在马里布，太平洋在电影明星尼古拉斯·凯奇住所附近形成了一个塌陷坑，并对海滨房产造成严重破坏。在丹纳波因特市的海滩路沿线，巨浪摧毁了一栋房屋，并迫使该市疏散或限制另外16栋房屋的居住。
CARLSBAD, California, Sept 25 - In Malibu, the Pacific Ocean opened a sinkhole near the home of movie star Nicolas Cage and wreaked havoc on beachfront property. Along Beach Road in the city of Dana Point, waves destroyed one home and forced the city to vacate or restrict occupancy to 16 others.
专家表示，未来几个月可能会迎来更猛烈的巨浪，届时自然发生的天气周期在气候变化的助推下，可能与最高潮汐同时出现。
Such damage up and down Southern California this summer was provoked by a series of Eastern Pacific cyclones and hurricanes, enhanced by the weather phenomenon known as El Niño. Although the hurricanes did not make landfall in California, they generated swells that slammed into the coast, denuding beaches of sand and transforming a coastline that is as much a part of California's identity as Hollywood or Silicon Valley.
加州大学圣克鲁兹分校沿海气候韧性中心研究主任帕特里克·巴纳德表示：“各种因素正在汇聚，就潜在灾害而言，这注定将是一个相当史诗级的冬季。一切都因气候变化而被放大。” 加州本周预先宣布进入紧急状态，以帮助调动灾害救援和第一响应者，为厄尔尼诺现象可能带来的更多动荡做准备，该现象于6月出现。预计该现象将在年底前至2027年初显示出最大影响。
Experts say even more ferocious waves could arrive in the coming months, when naturally occurring weather cycles, supercharged by climate change, could coincide with the highest of high tides.
周五，另一场飓风“波洛”在墨西哥太平洋沿岸盘旋。它可能将更多巨浪推向北方。官员们取消了原定本周末在圣莫尼卡举办的首届“海洋之路音乐节”，因为劳动节周末飓风“玛丽”带来的风暴冲浪和径流侵蚀了码头以南的大部分音乐会场地。
"Things are definitely lining up for this to be a pretty epic winter in terms of potential hazards," said Patrick Barnard, research director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at the University of California, Santa Cruz. "Everything's amplified by climate change." California this week preemptively declared a state of emergency to help mobilize disaster relief and first responders in preparation for more turmoil from El Niño, which emerged in June. The phenomenon is expected to demonstrate its greatest effects through year end and into early 2027.
厄尔尼诺现象每隔几年发生一次，当时中东部热带太平洋表层海水异常升温，改变大气环流并影响全球天气。
On Friday, another hurricane, Polo, churned off the Mexican Pacific coast. It could send more waves northward. Officials canceled the inaugural Ocean Way Festival set for this weekend in Santa Monica, after storm surf and runoff from Hurricane Marie over Labor Day weekend eroded much of the concert site just south of the pier.
南加州海平面在过去一个世纪里上升了8至12英寸（20至30厘米）。强厄尔尼诺现象可能会暂时使海平面再上升6至12英寸（15至30厘米）。
El Niño occurs every few years, when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and weather around the world.
开尔文波与大潮 与厄尔尼诺现象相关的是水下开尔文波，它可能会暂时使海平面再增加6至12英寸。据美国国家海洋和大气管理局海洋学家迈克尔·贾科克斯称，本轮厄尔尼诺现象的第一个主要开尔文波预计将于10月初抵达加利福尼亚。
The Southern California sea level has risen 8 to 12 inches (20 cm to 30 cm) over the past century. A strong El Niño could temporarily increase the sea level another 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 cm).
其影响可能与季节性极端大潮重合，后者发生在18.6年月球交点周期的增潮阶段。厄尔尼诺现象还可能产生被称为“大气河”的大规模暴雨风暴，这类风暴经常淹没沿海地区并侵蚀海滩悬崖。
KELVIN WAVE AND KING TIDES Related to El Niño is the underwater Kelvin wave, which could temporarily add another 6 to 12 inches in sea level. The first major Kelvin wave of the current El Niño is expected to reach California in early October, according to Michael Jacox, an oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
加利福尼亚普遍陡峭的海岸线迄今基本使居民免受世界其他低洼沿海地区所见的长期淹没之苦。
The effects could coincide with seasonally extreme king tides occurring during the tide-amplifying phase of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle. El Niño could also produce massive rainstorms known as atmospheric rivers that often flood coastal areas and erode beach bluffs.
在卡尔斯巴德——这座位于圣地亚哥以北约35英里（56公里）、人口11.2万的城市——塔马拉克海滩的沙滩几乎一夜之间消失殆尽，而这片海滩是该市的瑰宝，城市14%的运营预算来自酒店客房税。
California's generally steep coastline has until now largely spared residents the chronic inundation seen in low-lying coastal areas elsewhere in the world.
加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所的海岸地貌学家亚当·杨最近造访了塔马拉克海滩，攀爬在原本应是沙滩的卵石上。就在南侧不远处，海水完全吞没了海滩，涌入了一个停车场，游客过去只需几步路就能从停车场走到沙滩上。
In Carlsbad, a city of 112,000 about 35 miles (56 km) north of San Diego, the sand disappeared almost overnight from Tamarack beach, the jewel for a city that raises 14% of its operating budget from hotel room taxes.
杨表示，州和地方政府可以尝试加固财产、向海滩填沙，或利用卵石构建沙丘，模仿自然形态。
Adam Young, a coastal geomorphologist from UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, visited Tamarack recently, climbing over cobblestones where there used to be sandy beach. Just to the south, the ocean swallowed the beach completely, cascading into a parking lot that once allowed visitors to park just a few steps from the sand.
“通常没有一种适合所有人的解决方案，”杨说。“重要的是要记住，海岸线侵蚀已经持续了数千年。这是一个自然过程。真正的问题在于我们在其必经之路、海滩上以及这些危险区域建造了建筑物，这才是导致问题的原因。”
Young said state and local government can attempt to harden properties, add sand to the beach, or form dunes out of the cobblestones, mimicking nature.
冲浪爱好者仍然蜂拥前往塔马拉克。但这个平时挤满游客和当地人的海滩，如今只有少数游客在仅存的少量沙滩上占据一席之地。
"There often isn't one solution that works for everyone," Young said. "It's important to remember that erosion on the coastline has been going on for thousands of years. It's a natural process. The problem is really that we build stuff in the way and on the beaches and in these hazardous areas, and that's caused the problem." Surfers still flock to Tamarack. But a beach typically populated with tourists and locals now has only a few visitors who stake out a patch of what little sand remains.
“希望他们能想出解决办法，因为说实话，我认为大自然会把一切都收回，直到他们阻止这一切，对吧？”冲浪者亚历克斯·斯托特在结束早晨的冲浪后说道。“它正在表明，如果愿意，它可以在很短时间内夺走整个海滩。”路透社
"Hopefully they can figure out a solution because honestly, I think Mother Nature is going to take everything back until they stop it, right?" said surfer Alex Stott after a morning session. "It's showing it can take the entire beach if it wants to pretty quickly." REUTERS