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印度“蟑螂”运动将矛头转向选举首席官,政治重心转移India’s ‘cockroach’ movement targets election chief in political pivot

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印度的“蟑螂青年运动”正在试探:能否将民众对教育与就业问题的愤怒转化为对国家政治体制的更广泛挑战。两个月前,该运动的抗议活动迫使一位教育部长因涉嫌考试舞弊而辞职。

India’s “cockroach” youth movement is testing whether it can turn anger over education and jobs into a broader challenge to the country’s political establishment, two months after its protests helped force an education minister to resign over alleged entrance exam leaks.

如今,该运动将目标转向了另一个权力机构——印度的选举监督机构。这一转变标志着该运动从新德里的高调示威活动,转向了更为低调的斗争方式,包括对学校进行审计、与政府官员会面以及要求进行选举制度改革。

Its latest target is another powerful institution: the country’s election watchdog. The shift marks a transition for the movement from high-profile demonstrations in New Delhi to a more diffuse campaign of school audits, meetings with authorities and demands for electoral reform.

周四,“蟑螂人民党”(Cockroach Janata Party, CJP)的领导人要求选举委员会主席吉亚内什·库马尔(Gyanesh Kumar)辞职。此前有当地媒体报道称,库马尔在处理选民名单修订工作时可能存在不当行为,这可能导致符合条件的选民失去投票权,并削弱人们对印度选举制度的信心。

Leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) on Thursday demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, after a local newspaper reported allegations that his handling of voter-list revisions could disenfranchise eligible voters and undermine confidence in India’s electoral process.

《印度快报》(Indian Express)周三报道称,在过去10个月里,至少有两名选举委员会成员曾14次向库马尔提出质疑或表达担忧,主要涉及去年开始的选民名单更新工作。报告指出,库马尔多次无视另外两名选举委员会成员(苏克比尔·辛格·桑杜和维韦克·乔希)的反对意见,未经他们同意便擅自做出了关于选民名单、选民登记及删除等重要决策。

The Indian Express reported on Wednesday that two election commissioners had raised questions or expressed concern to Kumar at least 14 times in 10 months, mostly over the process of updating voter lists that began last year. The report alleged that Kumar repeatedly bypassed the two other election commissioners, Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi – who had formally raised objections – making critical decisions regarding voter lists, registration and deletions without their knowledge or consent.

这一争议加剧了人们对印度大规模选民名单修订工作的关注。批评者质疑:那些被从选民名单中剔除的选民是否能够获得足够的保障,以及他们是否有机会对这一决定提出异议。

The dispute has heightened scrutiny of a large-scale exercise to revise electoral rolls, with critics questioning whether voters excluded from draft lists will have adequate safeguards and opportunities to challenge their removal.

“当数百万人的名字可能从选民名单中消失时,选举委员会有责任证明每一项剔除决定都是合法、透明的,并且经过了充分的审查,”CJP全国召集人阿比吉特·迪普克(Abhijeet Dipke)表示。

“When millions of names can disappear from draft rolls, the burden is on the commission to establish that every exclusion is lawful, transparent and subject to meaningful reviews,” said CJP National Convenor Abhijeet Dipke.

迪普克警告称,如果库马尔在周六之前不辞职,CJP将发起全国性的抗议活动。

If Kumar did not resign by Saturday, the CJP would launch a nationwide protest, Dipke said.

这场抗议运动始于5月,最初是一场讽刺性的网络活动——当时印度最高法院院长苏里亚·坎特将失业的年轻人称为“蟑螂”。随后,抗议者的关注点转向了全国医学考试“NEET”中的舞弊行为,以及教育体系中的其他问题。他们在德里的“Jantar Mantar”广场举行的示威活动迫使普拉丹总理于7月辞职。不过,这场运动已经从首都的大规模抗议活动,转变为在至少六个邦进行的学校审计活动以及与政府部门的对话。

The CJP began in May as a satirical online campaign after Chief Justice of India Surya Kant referred to unemployed young people as “cockroaches”. It then turned its attention to alleged irregularities in the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) – a nationwide medical examination – and other grievances with the education system. Its protests at Jantar Mantar in Delhi helped force Pradhan’s resignation in July. But the movement has since shifted from high-decibel demonstrations in the capital to less prominent school audits and meetings with authorities across at least six states.

这场非政治性的抗议运动反映了中产阶级对年轻人就业机会的担忧,同时也凸显了政治领导人在应对印度最大选民群体时所面临的挑战。

The non-political movement, which has given voice to middle-class anxieties over opportunities for young people, highlights a growing challenge for political leaders trying to respond to one of the largest sections of India’s electorate.

“Z世代的力量正在逐渐崛起,而这个群体普遍反对现有体制,”独立政治评论员、民意调查机构C-Voter的创始人雅什万特·德什穆克(Yashwant Deshmukh)表示。德什穆克指出,年轻一代的不满暴露了一个跨党派性的问题:所有政党都在努力与年轻人建立联系、赢得他们的支持。

The non-political movement, which has given voice to middle-class anxieties over opportunities for young people, highlights a growing challenge for political leaders trying to respond to one of the largest sections of India’s electorate. “There is a definite Generation Z factor coming up. That Generation Z factor is largely anti-establishment,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator and founder of C-Voter, a public opinion research firm.

目前执政的印度人民党(BJP)已连续第三次执政(这次是作为多党联盟的领导者),在2024年失去绝对多数席位后,该党在地方选举中逐渐恢复了优势。在由国大党(Congress Party)领导的、分裂严重的反对派阵营中,人民党的统治地位进一步巩固——而国大党曾在1947年印度独立后长期占据主导地位。

The younger generation’s grievances had exposed a cross-party challenge that all political parties were struggling with, Deshmukh said: connecting with young people’s hearts and minds. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is now in its third successive term – this time at the head of a multiparty coalition – has gradually recovered ground in state elections after losing its outright majority in 2024.

分析人士认为,现在还为时过早,无法预测这场抗议运动是否会在明年北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)、北阿坎德邦(Uttarakhand)、旁遮普邦(Punjab)、曼尼普尔邦(Manipur)、喜马偕尔邦(Himachal Pradesh)和古吉拉特邦(Gujarat)的一系列选举中引发更广泛的政治变革。

The BJP’s dominance has only grown amid a fragmented opposition led by the Congress party, which held sway for decades following India’s independence in 1947. Analysts say it is too early to predict whether the cockroach movement could trigger broader political changes ahead of a string of elections next year in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.

“这将会给那些邦的当权者带来麻烦;因为这种‘抗争’并不是单方面的(即反对者只是被动地接受结果)。”德什穆克在谈到印度人民党(BJP)的政治命运时说道。

“It is going to create problems for anybody in power in those states. It is not one-way traffic,” Deshmukh said, referring to the BJP’s political fortunes. On Friday, Congress was set to stage protest marches at state election offices across India to demand Kumar’s arrest.

周五,国大党计划在印度各地的选举办公室前举行抗议游行,要求逮捕库马尔(Kumar)。

“No matter what narrative is created by the opposition and Congress, eventually it will come down to what kind of party infrastructure they have to turn that traction from Gen Z into votes against the BJP,” Deshmukh added.

“无论反对党和国大党如何塑造舆论,最终关键还在于他们能否将Z世代年轻人的抗议情绪转化为对印度人民党的投票支持,”德什穆克补充道。

“No matter what narrative is created by the opposition and Congress, eventually it will come down to what kind of party infrastructure they have to turn that traction from Gen Z into votes against the BJP,” Deshmukh added.

这场抗议运动的影响力已经超越了教育领域,独立政治评论员尼兰詹·穆克霍帕德亚伊(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay)将其称为印度“政治风向”的转变。穆克霍帕德亚伊认为,要求罢免选举委员会主席的做法很可能会进一步加速这一政治变革。

The cockroach movement’s expansion beyond education has coincided with what independent political commentator Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay described as a change in India’s “political drift”. Demanding the removal of the chief election commissioner was likely to catalyse that change further, Mukhopadhyay said.

“这场运动让年轻人不再害怕表达自己的意见,”他说,并以周四德里Lady Shri Ram女子学院的学生们抗议一起强奸案为例。

“What has happened is that the movement has triggered the erasure of fear from the minds of youngsters,” he said, pointing to a protest against the gang-rape of a 17-year-old girl on Thursday by students from Lady Shri Ram College for Women in Delhi as an example.

不过穆克霍帕德亚伊警告称,这些抗议活动并不意味着印度人民党会在选举中遭遇惨败;明年的邦级选举将更清楚地反映该党的受欢迎程度。

But Mukhopadhyay warned that the protests did not mean the BJP was facing an electoral rout, saying next year’s state elections would provide a clearer test of its popularity.

国大党领袖拉胡尔·甘地(Rahul Gandhi)也通过一项名为“Echo of Students”的全国性学生外展计划,试图与Z世代选民建立联系,旨在反映他们在教育和考试制度方面的不满。穆克霍帕德亚伊表示,这一举措提升了甘地在年轻人中的信誉。

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi of Congress has also been seeking to connect with Gen Z voters through a nationwide student outreach programme called (Echo of Students), aimed at amplifying grievances over the education and examination systems. The initiative had given Gandhi greater credibility among young people, Mukhopadhyay said.

与此同时,一个由科技企业家南丹·尼莱卡尼(Nandan Nilekani)领导的专家小组正在研究针对NEET考试(国家共同入学考试)的结构性改革。该小组是在针对考试舞弊行为的抗议活动持续数周后由总理莫迪宣布成立的;这些抗议最终导致考试负责人辞职,政府也同意了抗议者提出的多项要求。该小组的报告预计将于本月底完成。

Meanwhile, a high-powered panel led by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani is examining structural reforms to the NEET. The panel was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi after weeks of protests against alleged irregularities in the exam, which culminated in Pradhan’s resignation and the government agreeing to several of the movement’s demands. Its report is due by the end of this month.

据独立政治评论员哈什·拉马斯瓦米(Harsh Ramaswamy)称,这个“蟑螂运动”(指某个社会运动或组织)也试图将其影响力扩展到首都以外的地区;该组织的领导人亲自视察了全国各地政府学校的设施。

The cockroach movement had also been trying to build a presence beyond the capital, with its leaders personally inspecting facilities in government schools across different states, said Harsh Ramaswamy, an independent political commentator.

“他们的组织网络正在迅速扩张,但他们目前还无法以分散化的方式吸引更多人参与这项工作,”拉马斯瓦米指出,“由于缺乏其他团体的支持,要走访印度全国约100万所政府学校在现实中是不可能的。”

“Their network is growing well. What they have not been able to do is attract more people to do the job in a decentralised way,” he said, pointing out that visiting India’s roughly 1 million state schools would be physically impossible without support from other groups.

拉马斯瓦米还提到,这些审计报告未能引起公众的广泛关注,部分原因是该组织的创始人拒绝与任何政党结盟,从而导致当地媒体对该运动的兴趣降低。

The audits had struggled to capture national attention, partly because the CJP’s founders had refused to align with any political party, reducing local media interest, Ramaswamy said.

他补充说,普拉丹(Pradhan)的辞职似乎也削弱了该运动的势头,因为许多年轻支持者认为他们的目标已经实现。

Pradhan’s resignation also appeared to reduce the movement’s momentum, he added, as many young supporters felt the job was done. By Biman Mukherji