加拿大总理马克·卡尼表示，他已研究过美国对加拿大发动军事攻击的可能性，据《纽约时报》报道。
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he has examined the possibility of a US military attack against Canada, according to The New York Times.
周三，卡尼在接受该报采访时将此类攻击描述为“极端尾部风险”——即发生概率极低但后果可能极其严重的事件。
In an interview with the newspaper on Wednesday, Carney described an attack as an “extreme tail risk” – an event with a very low probability but potentially severe consequences.
“这只是风险管理，”曾任英格兰央行行长的卡尼说。“不这么做才是不负责任。”专家表示，他的言论并不意味着战争迫在眉睫，也不代表加拿大正在备战，但确实显示卡尼将其视为一种遥远的可能性。以下是这可能意味着什么。加美关系为何紧张？
“That’s just risk management,” said Carney, the former head of the Bank of England. “It would be irresponsible not to.” Experts say his comments do not indicate that a war is likely or that Canada is preparing to fight one, but they do show that Carney considers it a remote possibility. Here is what that might mean. Why are relations between Canada and the US strained?
主要争端在于持续的贸易战，以及特朗普关于加拿大成为美国一个州的讽刺言论。
The main bones of contention are the ongoing trade war and Trump’s jibes about Canada becoming a US state.
贸易战 特朗普2025年重返白宫后不久，对加墨两国进口商品征收25%关税，称除非两国采取措施遏制芬太尼——一种高度成瘾且致命的毒品——流入美国，否则关税不会取消。墨加两国领导人达成协议，暂缓即将生效的关税30天，但特朗普于3月初宣布加拿大未做足够努力后，重新对加征收关税。
Trade war Shortly after Trump returned to the White House in 2025, he imposed a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from both Canada and Mexico, saying they would not be lifted until both countries took steps to curb the flow of fentanyl, a highly addictive and lethal drug, into the US. The leaders of Mexico and Canada struck a deal pausing the impending tariffs for 30 days, but they were reimposed on Canada in early March after Trump declared that it had failed to do enough.
2025年7月，他威胁将关税提高至35%，除非加拿大在数字服务税问题上让步，加方随后同意妥协。
In July 2025, he threatened to raise that to 35 percent unless Canada backed down on a digital services tax, which it agreed to do.
作为美国最大的钢铁和铝外部供应国，加拿大还因特朗普于2025年3月在全球范围内征收的25%钢铝关税而遭受重创。去年以来，贸易谈判虽持续进行但最终于8月破裂，双方此后相互征收新的报复性关税。特朗普对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品征收50%关税，加拿大对等反制美国商品。
Canada, the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminium to the US, was also badly hit by Trump’s separate 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminium, which he imposed globally in March 2025 Since last year, trade talks have continued but ultimately collapsed in August, and both sides have since imposed new, tit-for-tat tariffs Trump levied 50 percent taxes on $20bn of Canadian goods, and Canada matched them for US goods.
加拿大面临的问题是，其经济与美国紧密相连，这使得贸易战后果尤为严重。2025年，加拿大5560亿美元的商品出口中，约72%流向了美国。
The problem for Canada is that its economy is closely tied to that of the US, making a trade war particularly consequential. Some 72 percent of Canada’s $556bn goods exports went to the US in 2025.
安全威胁 特朗普大肆炒作这种依赖关系。“我认为加拿大如果成为第51个州会好得多，”美国总统在2025年说道。
Security threat Trump has made much of this dependence. “I think Canada would be much better off being a 51st state,” the US president said in 2025.
今年贸易谈判破裂时，特朗普在其社交平台“真相社交”上回应卡尼的声明称：“加拿大想要享受作为一个州的好处，却不想成为州！！！”特朗普还采取了挑衅性举措，将位于加美边境的安大略湖更名为“美国湖”。
When trade talks fell apart this year, Trump responded to Carney’s announcement by writing on his platform Truth Social: “Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!” Trump also took the provocative step of renaming Lake Ontario – which sits along the border of Canada and the US – “Lake America”.
因此，卡尼正寻求减少这种依赖。其政府还在审查原定采购美国F-35战斗机的计划，卡尼表示加拿大也打算减少对SpaceX“星链”卫星互联网服务的依赖。
Carney is, therefore, seeking to reduce that dependence. His government is also reviewing its planned purchase of American F-35 fighter jets, while Carney said that Canada also intends to rely less on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service.
本月，他访问了欧盟和英国，旨在拓展盟友关系。欧盟向加拿大提供了准会员资格，而加拿大已申请加入英国主导的联合远征军（JEF），这是一个欧洲军事联盟。
This month, he has visited the European Union and the United Kingdom in a bid to expand alliances. The EU has offered associate membership to Canada, while Canada has applied to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a European military coalition.
格拉斯哥大学国际关系学教授泰·所罗门告诉半岛电视台，在涉及与美国的紧张关系时，存在“至少两个问题”。第一是“特朗普总统对加拿大表现出的敌意”，这体现在他威胁将加拿大并吞为“第51个州”，以及两国相互征收的关税上。
Ty Solomon, a professor of international relations at the University of Glasgow, told Al Jazeera there were “at least two issues at play” when it came to tensions with the US. The first was “the hostility that President Trump has shown towards Canada”, reflected in his threats to annex it as the “51st state”, and the tariffs both countries have imposed.
所罗门表示，第二个问题是不断变化的安全格局，其中包括美国去年威胁吞并格陵兰岛，以及“俄罗斯和中国在北极地区持续的兴趣和活动”。他说，在这种“多层面的地缘政治环境”中，“一个领域的意外事件可能引发其他领域进一步的意外动态”。
The second, Solomon said, was a changing security landscape that included US threats last year to annex Greenland, as well as “ongoing Russian and Chinese interest and activity in the Arctic”. In this “multifaceted geopolitical environment”, he said, “unexpected events in one area could trigger further unexpected dynamics in these other areas”.
因此，尽管利兹大学政治传播学副教授埃里克·泰勒·伍兹告诉半岛电视台，美国采取军事行动的可能性“微乎其微”，但加拿大人仍因特朗普的言论而感到不安，并希望知道他们的总理正在捍卫国家主权。
Therefore, while US military action is a “vanishingly small possibility”, Eric Taylor Woods, an associate professor of political communication at the University of Leeds, told Al Jazeera that Canadians are nevertheless unsettled by Trump’s comments and want to know their prime minister is defending the country’s sovereignty.
卡尼在1月的世界经济论坛上阐述了这一新的地缘政治现实，当时他敦促加拿大等国通力合作，因为大国正更咄咄逼人地行使影响力。他说：“如果我们不在牌桌上，我们就成了菜单上的菜。”如果美加发生军事冲突会怎样？
Carney set out this new geopolitical reality at the World Economic Forum in January, when he urged countries such as Canada to work together as great powers use their influence more aggressively. “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” he said. What would happen in a military conflict between the US and Canada?
专家认为美国攻击加拿大的可能性极低——所罗门表示，美国攻击加拿大仍属于“有点不可想象”的范畴。
Experts consider a US attack on Canada highly unlikely – Solomon said a US attack on Canada remained “somewhat unthinkable”.
但伍兹表示，如果真发生了，“尽管军事能力存在‘巨大差距’，但我不会指望加拿大人会简单接受主权丧失的事实”。
But, Woods said, if there was one, “I would not expect Canadians simply to accept the loss of their sovereignty”, despite the “enormous disparity in military capabilities”.
所罗门说：“美国拥有规模大得多、强大得多的军队。因此，理论上似乎毫无悬念。”但他表示，美国对伊朗的长期战争，已让人们对“压倒性的美国军事力量和有效性”产生怀疑。
“The US has a vastly larger and more powerful military than Canada,” Solomon said. “On paper, then, there would appear to be no contest.” But, he said, the prolonged US war against Iran had cast doubt on assumptions about “overwhelming US military force and effectiveness”.
此外，所罗门说，如果真发生冲突，那将是“美国全球利益的一场不可挽回的灾难”。
Furthermore, Solomon said, if it did happen, it would be “an unmitigated disaster for American global interests”.
他补充道：“美国仅存的信任将荡然无存，并将极大地加速其他民主国家在美式安全与同盟体系之外锻造新联盟的努力。”接下来会怎样？两国之间的不安情绪恐将持续。
“What remaining trust there is of the US would evaporate completely, and it would greatly accelerate other democracies’ efforts to forge new alliances outside of the American security and alliance system,” he added. What happens next? The unease between the two is likely to continue.
卡尼表示，他仍准备好与特朗普达成贸易协议。他告诉《纽约时报》，自贸易谈判破裂以来，他们已“频繁”通话。“我们可以拿起电话，就各种问题交谈，”他说。“他很直接，我也很直接。”伍兹还指出，特朗普迄今避免了他常对卡尼的前任贾斯汀·特鲁多施加的那些“校园式的人身侮辱和辱骂”。
Carney has said he is still prepared to reach a trading deal with Trump. He told The New York Times that they had spoken “frequently” since trade talks collapsed. “We can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said. “He’s direct. I’m direct.” Woods noted, also, that Trump had so far avoided the “schoolyard personal insults and name-calling” he often directed at Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
所罗门表示：“私下里，我怀疑卡尼及其顾问根本不太信任特朗普政府：特朗普以反复无常著称——且似乎凭一时兴起就能迅速改变主意，连带美国外交政策一并改变。”
Solomon said that “privately, I suspect that Carney and his advisers do not trust the Trump administration much at all: Trump is well known to change his mind – and American foreign policy – very quickly and seemingly on a whim”.
“作为领导人，很难信任这种行为，因为每项协议都建立在不确定的基础之上。”
“As a leader, it is very difficult to trust this sort of behaviour because every agreement is built upon uncertain foundations.”