由安德鲁·罗萨蒂（Andrew Rosati）、玛莎·贝克（Martha Beck）和乔瓦娜·贝洛蒂·阿泽维多（Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo）撰写：在一场又一场的集会上，卢拉·达席尔瓦总统（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）不断抨击在线赌博活动，试图以此争取连任。他认为在线赌博耗尽了家庭预算，削弱了消费者支出——而正是这些消费支出推动了他在任期间的经济增长。
By Andrew Rosati, Martha Beck and Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo At rally after rally, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has railed against online gambling in his bid for another term, blaming it for draining household budgets and sapping the consumer spending that has powered growth under his governments.
随着10月4日总统选举的临近，选举局势陷入胶着状态，这位左翼领导人正将他的言论转化为实际行动。预计他将在周五晚些时候签署一项临时禁令，禁止在巴西境内的所有数字赌博平台（包括在线体育博彩网站和赌场）的运营。
Now, with the Oct. 4 presidential election days away and the race deadlocked, the leftist leader is turning rhetoric into policy. Later on Friday, he is expected to sign a provisional measure banning , as digital betting platforms are known in Brazil, including online sportsbooks and casinos.
对卢拉来说，这一举措是他为在选举中击败主要竞争对手——保守派参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）而采取的最后一搏，同时也是为了应对日益严重的赌博成瘾和债务问题。民调显示，绝大多数巴西人支持禁止赌博；这一立场使这位前工会领袖站在了那些担忧家庭财务状况的普通民众一边。
For Lula, the move is an eleventh-hour push to gain an edge on his main rival, conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and address mounting concerns over addiction and debt. Polls show Brazilians overwhelmingly support a ban on bets, setting the former trade unionist against a deep-pocketed industry while positioning him alongside families worried about their finances.
然而，禁止赌博可能会迫使巴西人转向非法赌博市场，而对解决该国更为严重的债务问题几乎毫无帮助。
But prohibiting bets may push Brazilians into the illegal gambling market, while doing little to address a much larger debt problem affecting households.
关键在于，卢拉仍然坚持依赖消费和信贷来推动经济增长的模式，却未能提出任何切实可行的计划来控制政府的债务——而这正是导致巴西利率居高不下的主要原因。
Crucially, Lula continues to insist on an economic growth model fueled by consumption and credit, and offers no credible plan to rein the government’s own debts — a key source of Brazil’s extraordinarily high interest rates.
堆积如山的信用卡账单和贷款还款压力正令消费者不堪重负；企业因高昂的借贷成本而陷入困境；该国日益恶化的财政状况令从圣保罗到华尔街的投资者都感到担忧。家庭债务水平已创下历史新高，政府债务也重新回到了疫情期间的水平，企业违约率也达到了历史最高点。
A crush of credit-card bills and loan payments is battering consumers, companies are reeling from expensive credit, and the country’s deteriorating fiscal outlook is alarming investors from São Paulo to Wall Street. Household indebtedness is at a record high; government debt has returned to pandemic-era levels; corporate defaults are at an all-time peak.
在卢拉执政期间，消费确实推动了经济增长，但问题也逐渐显现：消费需求正在下滑，经济学家警告称这种经济增长模式可能无法持续太久。
Spending under Lula has propped up growth, but cracks are emerging: consumption is slipping and economists are warning the expansion might not last much longer.
“我们极有可能面临经济放缓，甚至可能出现衰退，”巴西中央银行前行长阿米尼奥·弗拉加（Arminio Fraga）在一次采访中表示。
“It’s highly probable that we have a slowdown, possibly even a recession,” Arminio Fraga, a former governor of Brazil’s central bank, said in an interview.
根据巴西全国商业、服务业和旅游业联合会（National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism）的数据，截至7月份，82%的家庭背负着某种形式的债务，创下了自2010年该数据统计以来的最高比例。近10%的未偿信用卡债务逾期至少90天，创下了央行历史数据的最高纪录。创纪录数量的巴西人还在使用透支服务或持有循环信用卡债务，这些是该国成本最高借贷方式之一。
As of July, 82% of households were carrying some form of debt, the highest share since the series began in 2010, according to the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism. Nearly 10% of outstanding credit-card debt was at least 90 days past due, an all-time high in central bank data. Record numbers of Brazilians were also tapping overdrafts or holding revolving credit-card debt, among the country’s most expensive forms of borrowing.
随着巴西基准利率Selic达到13.75%，且信用卡利率可能超过400%，巴西家庭正将近三分之一的收入用于偿还债务，创下了央行自2005年有记录以来的最高纪录。
With Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate at 13.75% and credit card interest rates that can surpass 400%, Brazilian families are allocating nearly one-third of their income to debt service, a record in central bank data going back to 2005.
自2023年重新上台以来，现年80岁的左翼领导人卢拉一直试图通过刺激消费和延续在疫情期间腾飞的信贷扩张，来改善巴西劳动人民的生活。
Since returning to office in 2023, Lula, an 80-year-old leftist, has sought to improve the lives of working Brazilians by boosting consumption and building on a credit expansion that took off during the pandemic.
2020年，随着政府向家庭和企业发放紧急救助，同时央行将Selic利率下调至历史最低点，廉价资金涌入经济领域。
Cheap money flooded the economy in 2020 as the government doled out emergency aid to households and companies while the central bank slashed the Selic to an all-time low.
同年，如今无处不在的即时支付系统Pix的推出，加速了向数字银行的转变。金融科技和基于应用程序的借贷机构的崛起，吸引了更多的巴西人进入主流金融体系，并使获得信贷变得更加容易。央行数据显示，活跃信用卡数量从2020年的1.34亿张近乎翻倍，至2025年的约2.54亿张。
That same year, the launch of Pix, a now ubiquitous instant-payment system, accelerated a shift toward digital banking. The rise of fintechs and app-based lenders drew more Brazilians into the financial mainstream and made credit easier to obtain. The number of active credit cards nearly doubled to about 254 million in 2025, from 134 million in 2020, central bank data show.
但是，随着央行为遏制经济重新开放伴随而来的通货膨胀激增而大幅提高Selic利率，借贷狂潮最终带来了苦果。去年，该利率触及近二十年来的最高点15%，而消费价格的增长依然居高不下。
But a borrowing binge gave way to hangover as central bankers cranked up the Selic to contain an inflation surge that accompanied the reopening of the economy. The rate hit a nearly two-decade high of 15% last year, with consumer-price growth still elevated.
数百万像安东尼奥·卡洛斯·拉马尔赫特（Antônio Carlos Ramalhete）这样的借款人卷入了这场急剧的变故之中，他是一名38岁的公立学校教师兼私人教练。厌倦了两份工作的劳累，这位圣保罗本地人在2020年投资了一项业务，希望能积累财富。
Millions of borrowers like Antônio Carlos Ramalhete, a 38-year-old public school teacher and personal trainer, got caught in the whiplash. Tired of the grind of two jobs, the Sao Paulo native invested in a business in 2020 in hopes of building wealth.
为了维持业务运转，他刷爆了五张信用卡并申请了贷款，在去年底开始整理财务之前，他的负债飙升至50万雷亚尔（约合9.8万美元）。
Trying to keep it afloat, he maxed out five credit cards and took out loans, pushing his debt to 500,000 reais, or about $98,000, before he began getting his finances in order late last year.
“当你提到50万时，大多数人会以为你拿了一个装有50万的手提箱出去花掉了，”拉马尔赫特说。“事实并非如此。这里面有利息——信用卡利息。”尽管借贷成本正在小幅下降，但巴西人仍要面对高达60%的平均消费信贷年利率，而透支利率更是飙升至100%以上。在世界上贫富差距最大的国家之一，这些成本尤为痛苦，这里有数千万人生活在贫困线以下，对轻松赚钱的诱惑很难抗拒。
“When you say 500,000, most people imagine that you picked up a suitcase containing 500,000 and went out and spent it,” Ramalhete said. “It’s not like that. There’s interest — credit card interest.” While borrowing costs are edging down, Brazilians still face an average annual rate of 60% on consumer credit and overdraft rates that soar above 100%. Those costs are particularly painful in one of the world’s most unequal countries, where tens of millions live below the poverty line and the allure of easy money is hard to resist.
这或许有助于解释巴西的博彩热潮。自2018年博彩合法化以来，该市场已迅速膨胀为全球最大的市场之一。据央行估计，去年巴西人每月的下注金额高达300亿雷亚尔。
That may help explain Brazil’s betting boom. Since bets were legalized in 2018, the market has ballooned into one of the world’s largest, with Brazilians wagering as much as 30 billion reais a month last year, according to central bank estimates.
尽管卢拉努力管制网络博彩业——包括实施监管以及禁止社会福利领取者下注，但医生们警告称，成瘾现象正在加剧，巴西人越来越将财务崩溃归咎于赌博。
Despite Lula’s efforts to rein in the online-betting industry, including imposing regulations and barring recipients of social benefits from placing wagers, doctors warn addiction is rising and Brazilians are increasingly blaming bets for wrecking their finances.
34岁的推销员佩德罗·内托（Pedro Neto）于2021年开始赌球，以增加足球比赛的乐趣。后来，他被节奏更快、赌场风格的产品所吸引，迷上了一款名为Aviator的热门游戏。没过多久，他就开始为了翻本而不断下注。
Pedro Neto, a 34-year-old salesman, started gambling in 2021 to make soccer games more fun. He was later drawn to faster, casino-style offerings and got hooked on Aviator, a popular game. Not long after, he was chasing losses.
内托回忆说，他在一次疯狂下注中输掉了8.5万雷亚尔。两周后，他又开始赌博，在他居住的圣保罗州城市索罗卡巴的一间教堂洗手间里，又输掉了5万雷亚尔。
Neto recounted blowing through 85,000 reais in one spree. Two weeks later, he was betting again, losing another 50,000 reais from a church bathroom in Sorocaba, the São Paulo state city where he lives.
今年在教会的帮助下，内托终于控制住了自己的赌瘾，但在此之前，他已经输掉了30万雷亚尔，甚至为了继续赌博卖掉了自己的iPhone。
By the time he got his addiction under control this year with help from his congregation, Neto had lost 300,000 reais and even sold his iPhone to keep gambling.
“只有当你一无所有、跌入谷底时，你才会意识到情况有多糟，”他说。
“You only realize how bad it is when there’s nothing left, when you’ve hit zero,” he said.
他的困境并非个例。去年有超过2500万巴西人参与了赌博，研究表明，赌徒陷入财务困境的可能性要高得多。圣保罗大学英斯佩尔商学院（Insper）的一项研究发现，开始赌博的人发生债务违约的可能性增加了近20%。
His struggles aren’t unique. More than 25 million Brazilians placed bets last year, and research suggests bettors are far more likely to run into financial trouble. A study from Insper, a Sao Paulo university, found that people who began betting were nearly 20% more likely to default.
这种对家庭财务的挤压正在产生连锁反应，从夫妻老婆店一直波及到企业董事会。
The pinch on households is reverberating from mom-and-pop shops to corporate boardrooms.
数据提供商兼征信机构信百位（Serasa Experian）的首席经济学家卡米拉·阿布德尔马拉克的（Camila Abdelmalack）表示：“它们是相互影响的。今天，如果不谈论企业违约，就无法谈论消费违约。”信百位的数据显示，7月份违约企业数量创下920万家的纪录，逾期债务总额达到2390亿雷亚尔。其中绝大多数是小企业，但巴西的一些最大企业也正在财政压力下苦苦支撑。
“They feed into each other,” said Camila Abdelmalack, chief economist at Serasa Experian, a data provider and credit bureau. “You can’t talk about consumer delinquencies today without talking about corporate delinquencies.” A record 9.2 million companies were delinquent in July, according to Serasa Experian, with overdue debts totaling 239 billion reais. The lion’s share were small businesses, but some of Brazil’s biggest companies are also buckling under the financial strain.
今年，生物燃料巨头Raizen SA、石化生产商布拉斯科姆公司（Braskem SA）以及以GPA之名为人所知的巴西分销公司（Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição）等大型企业，均已采取行动通过庭外程序进行债务重组。
This year, biofuels giant Raizen SA, petrochemical producer Braskem SA and supermarket chain Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição, known as GPA, have all moved to restructure debt through out-of-court proceedings.
家庭和企业能否获得持久的财务纾困，关键在于降低巴西的借贷成本。由于市场担心公共债务正走向危险水平，且卢拉及其挑战者都没有制定出控制开支的具体策略，这些成本正被推得更高。
Lasting financial relief for families and businesses hinges on bringing down Brazil’s borrowing costs. Those costs are being pushed higher by fears that public debt is headed toward dangerous levels — and that neither Lula nor his challengers have laid out a concrete strategy to bring spending under control.
今年7月，巴西的名义财政赤字接近GDP的10%，约合2350亿美元。其中90%以上的缺口反映在利息成本上。
In July, Brazil’s nominal fiscal deficit reached nearly 10% of GDP, or about $235 billion. More than 90% of that shortfall reflected interest costs.
咨询公司绿外套（Greenmantle）拉美地区主管亚当·戈德史密斯（Adam Goldsmith）表示：“拒绝哪怕少花一点钱，都在极大程度上加重了国家的负担。”
“The refusal to spend even just a little bit less is increasing the burden to the state enormously,” said Adam Goldsmith, director for Latin America at Greenmantle, a consultancy.
卢拉淡化了人们对公共债务水平的担忧，将债务上升归咎于高利率。他的政府强调，巴西的财政缺口已经收窄，并预计明年将实现小额基本盈余。
Lula has played down concerns over public debt levels, blaming high interest rates for their rise. His administration highlights that it has narrowed Brazil’s budget hole and is forecasting a small primary surplus next year.
但经济学家表示，这远未达到控制债务所需的程度；政府为支撑需求而采取的努力，则可能令通胀以及Selic利率在更长时间内维持高位。
But economists say that falls well short of what’s needed to rein in debt, while government efforts to sustain demand risk keeping inflation — and the Selic — higher for longer.
随着经济降温，卢拉——或最终赢得选举的任何人——面临的挑战正在于此：现在缓解痛苦，可能意味着日后付出更大代价。
Therein lies the challenge for Lula — or whoever wins the election — as the economy cools: easing the pain now risks adding to the bill later.
对拉马列特这样的数百万巴西人来说，这种困境再熟悉不过。这位公立学校教师为维持生计而苦苦挣扎。
For millions of Brazilians like Ramalhete, the public school teacher struggling to stay afloat, that predicament is all too familiar.
“我们总以为，到月底时总能撑过去，”他说，“但我们没有算到的是，这期间发生的种种事情。”
“We always believe that by the end of the month we’ll make it work,” he said. “What we don’t account for are the things that happen along the way.”