我的特朗普消息源称，这位总统能想象到的最糟糕的噩梦已经降临……来自共和党内部人士的恐慌短信和电子邮件正把我的手机塞爆。他们都在说同一件事：马克·哈尔佩林（MARK HALPERIN）我有一个投资银行家朋友，他曾给出过这样一句至理名言：“有时，面对危机时最恰当的反应，其实就是恐慌。”共和党人还没完全走到那一步，但审慎起见，他们至少应该考虑一下。
My Trump sources say the president's worst nightmare imaginable has arrived... panicked texts and emails from GOP insiders are blowing up my phone. They're all saying the same thing: MARK HALPERIN I have an investment banker friend who once offered this sage advice: 'Sometimes the appropriate response to a crisis is, in fact, to panic.' Republicans are not quite at that stage yet, but prudence suggests they should at least consider it.
距离选举日仅剩40天，而全国大部分地区的提前投票即将开始，共和党确实陷入了绝境。
With just 40 days remaining until Election Day and with early voting about to commence in much of the country, the Grand Old Party finds itself in dire straits, indeed.
很难相信，就在两周前，唐纳德·特朗普总统还亲自在达拉斯为该党史无前例的国家中期选举大会领衔助阵。这似乎已成了遥远的历史。
It's hard to believe that President Donald Trump headlined the party's unprecedented national midterm convention in Dallas just two weeks ago. It seems like ancient history.
因为在过去的十四天里，对于背负着陷入僵局的伊朗战争、关于特朗普家族敛财的无休止头条新闻、不断上涨的汽柴油价格，以及白宫面对公众对人工智能和数据中心担忧时的无能表现的共和党人来说，简直是一场活生生的噩梦。
For the intervening fortnight has been a living nightmare for Republicans saddled with the stalled Iran war, incessant headlines about Trump family buckraking, rising gas and diesel prices, and White House fecklessness in the face of public fears over AI and data centers.
这一切交织在一起，为总统所在的政党酿成了一锅令人作呕的乱局，但从该党气势汹汹的电视广告、新闻稿和社交媒体帖子中，你未必能看出这一点——几乎所有这些宣传都展现出了与其领袖一样的自信。对他们来说遗憾的是，虚张声势根本无法对抗现实。
It's all mixed together to create a rancid stew for the president's party, but you wouldn't necessarily know that from the party's muscular TV ads, press releases and social media posts, almost all of which project the confidence of the man who leads them. Too bad for them bravado is no match for reality.
正当特朗普和白宫的喉舌们还在强作镇定之际，政治缄默法则周三被资深爱荷华州脱口秀主持人史蒂夫·迪斯（Steve Deace）打破了，此人既是MAGA（让美国再次伟大）的支持者，又消息灵通。
While Trump and White House mouthpieces are maintaining stiff upper lips, the code of political omerta was broken Wednesday by veteran Iowa talk show host Steve Deace, a man both MAGA and plugged in.
Deace在X上的痛心疾首始于此：“昨天，爱荷华州众议院共和党人从自家民调员那里得知，如果你在一个+15的选区，你已处于误差范围内；如果你在一个+10的选区，你已陷入劣势；而这届中期选举的环境可能比2006年还要糟糕。” 翻译过来就是：原本稳操胜券的共和党席位如今岌岌可危，甚至那些自以为能躺着连任的共和党候选人最好赶紧醒醒，开启竞选模式。
Deace's plaintive cry on X started like this: 'Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you're within the margin for error, if you're in a +10 district you're underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.' Translation: Safe Republican seats are now at risk and even the GOP candidates who thought they could sleepwalk their way to re-election better wake-up and start campaigning. In 2006, George W Bush was president and his party lost the House and Senate in the midterms. When pundits talk about wave elections, this is what they mean.
2006年，小布什担任总统，他的党在中期选举中失去了众参两院的控制权。当评论员谈论“浪潮式选举”时，指的就是这种局面。
'I slept on whether to share this publicly,' Deace continued. 'This morning I ultimately decided the truth should be shared while there is [sic] still six weeks left to do something about it for the good of the country… If the environment is this bad in my home state, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, I can't imagine where it is everywhere else.' Here's another data point. The Cook Political Report has shifted its outlook for the Senate race in Kansas, where the incumbent Roger Marshall is defending against a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton.
“我犹豫了很久要不要公开这事儿，”Deace接着说，“今天早上我最终决定，既然还有六周时间能为国家利益做点什么，真相就该公之于众……如果在我的家乡州——特朗普过去十年里一直是最受欢迎的政治人物——环境都这么糟，我简直不敢想象别的地方会怎样。” 这是另一个数据点。《库克政治报告》已调整了堪萨斯州参议院选战的展望，现任参议员Roger Marshall面临民主党人Adam Hamilton的挑战。
'I slept on whether to share this publicly,' Deace continued. 'This morning I ultimately decided the truth should be shared while there is [sic] still six weeks left to do something about it for the good of the country… If the environment is this bad in my home state, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, I can't imagine where it is everywhere else.' Here's another data point. The Cook Political Report has shifted its outlook for the Senate race in Kansas, where the incumbent Roger Marshall is defending against a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. What was once considered a 'likely Republican' seat is now only 'lean Republican.' That may not seem like a big deal, but Kansas Democrats haven't won a Senate seat since 1932.
曾被视为“倾向共和党”的席位，如今仅剩“略微倾向共和党”。这乍看不算大事，但堪萨斯州民主党人上一次赢得参议员席位还要追溯到1932年。
That irony won't be lost on this president because the chief executive in 1932 was Herbert Hoover. 'I have one primary wish as president, in terms of people: I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover,' Trump told my friend Marc Caputo on The Axios Show in June.
这一讽刺意味总统自然心知肚明，因为1932年的行政首脑正是Herbert Hoover。
Hoover, America's 31st president, is responsible forg into law the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which have gone down in history as an economic disaster that prolonged the Depression. Shantytowns built across the country by the unemployed and homeless of the '30s were labelled Hoovervilles.
“我当总统在人事方面只有一个首要愿望：我绝不想成为已故的‘伟大’Herbert Hoover，”特朗普在6月接受我朋友Marc Caputo在《Axios Show》节目采访时说道。
Hoover, America's 31st president, is responsible forg into law the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which have gone down in history as an economic disaster that prolonged the Depression. Shantytowns built across the country by the unemployed and homeless of the '30s were labelled Hoovervilles.
Hoover是美国第31任总统，他签署通过了《斯姆特-霍利关税法》，该法案在历史上被视为一场延长了大萧条的经济灾难。30年代遍布全国、由失业者和无家可归者搭建的棚户区被冠以“胡佛村”之名。
Echoing Deace from the other side of the aisle is Doug Sosnik, the longtime top-shelf Democratic strategist whose campaign memos are read like the Rosetta Stone by the political community.
民主党资深顶级策略师道格·索斯尼克从另一个角度呼应了迪斯的观点，他的竞选备忘录被政界视为“罗塞塔石碑”般研读。
Sosnik declared on the same day as Deace that 'Since early September, there has been a noticeable shift toward Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. This is due to the cumulative effects of a combination of factors that have been building over recent months, including a failed war in Iran, rising prices, brazen self-enrichment by Trump and his family, and the increasingly erratic behavior of an out of touch Commander in Chief. As a result, Democrats are now positioned for gains that looked unimaginable at the beginning of the year.' Team Trump points to their vastly superior fundraising, campaign spending capacities and voter contact efforts, as well as the weakness of the Democratic brand generally and the vulnerabilities of many of the opposition's candidates. If things are so dire, they ask, why do polls show Republican hopefuls in a strong position in Blue states such as Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota.
索斯尼克在迪斯发声的同一天宣称：“自9月初以来，即将到来的中期选举出现了向民主党倾斜的明显转变。这是近几个月来多种因素累积效应的结果，包括伊朗战争的失败、物价上涨、特朗普及其家族肆无忌惮的敛财，以及这位脱离群众的总司令日益反复无常的行为。因此，民主党现在有望实现年初时难以想象的席位增长。”特朗普团队则指出，他们拥有远超对手的筹款能力、竞选开支能力和选民接触工作，此外民主党品牌普遍疲软，许多反对党候选人自身存在弱点。他们反问：如果形势如此严峻，为什么民调显示共和党候选人在缅因州、新罕布什尔州、密歇根州和明尼苏达州等蓝州处于强势地位？或许吧。但为什么共和党候选人自己现在公开与总统划清界限？答案是：虽然公开民调对共和党极其不利，但内部民调更糟。
Sosnik declared on the same day as Deace that 'Since early September, there has been a noticeable shift toward Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. This is due to the cumulative effects of a combination of factors that have been building over recent months, including a failed war in Iran, rising prices, brazen self-enrichment by Trump and his family, and the increasingly erratic behavior of an out of touch Commander in Chief. As a result, Democrats are now positioned for gains that looked unimaginable at the beginning of the year.' Team Trump points to their vastly superior fundraising, campaign spending capacities and voter contact efforts, as well as the weakness of the Democratic brand generally and the vulnerabilities of many of the opposition's candidates. If things are so dire, they ask, why do polls show Republican hopefuls in a strong position in Blue states such as Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota. Perhaps. But why are Republican candidates themselves now openly distancing themselves from the President? The answer: While public polls are horrendous for Republicans, the private ones are worse. Individual Republican candidates, seeing the President's poll standing, have gone into every-woman-and-man-for-themselves mode, distancing themselves from the White House on hot button items up to and including immigration, the issue that helped propel Trump into the White House, twice.
眼见总统民望低迷，个别共和党候选人已进入“各自为战”模式，在包括移民在内的敏感议题上与白宫保持距离——而移民议题曾助推特朗普两度入主白宫。
Individual Republican candidates, seeing the President's poll standing, have gone into every-woman-and-man-for-themselves mode, distancing themselves from the White House on hot button items up to and including immigration, the issue that helped propel Trump into the White House, twice.
一位共和党参议员周三发推文称：“当移民与海关执法局（ICE）执法时……需要与地方执法部门协调。我们的治安官和警察最了解这些社区，合作共事能保障警员和居民安全。”你猜是谁发的。非其他，正是来自深红堪萨斯州的参议员罗杰·马歇尔。
One Republican senator tweeted Wednesday: 'When ICE operates… it needs to coordinate with local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.' You get one guess who posted that. None other than Senator Roger Marshall from deep red Kansas.
令我印象最深的是，过去一周来，针对我在《每日邮报》上关于“蓝色海啸”前景的报道，我收到的各方反应。在我认识的众多共和党策略师中，没有一个人对我的报道提出异议。
What has been most telling to me is the reaction that I've received over the last week to my reporting in the Daily Mail about the prospect of a Blue tsunami. I have not heard from one Republican strategist, among the many I know, who has taken issue with my reporting.
事实上，来自“MAGA阵营”和更传统保守派来源的大量邮件、短信和电话都表示，要么我的判断完全正确，要么我低估了事态的严峻程度。时间不多了。
In fact, a flurry of emails, texts and phone calls, from both MAGA-ville and more traditional conservative sources, say either I have it exactly right or that I am understating just how grim things are. Time is running out.
选民很可能已经做定了决定，无论投放多少电视广告都无法动摇他们。我们正逼近一个节点，届时共和党可能只剩下一个选择：恐慌。
There's a chance that voters have already locked in their decisions and no amount of TV ads will sway them. We're nearing the point where there may only be one option left for the GOP: panic.