哈立德·卡齐哈 (KHALED KAZZIHA) 发自肯尼亚内罗毕 — 战火重燃埃塞俄比亚的提格雷地区，曾经的敌人正联手对抗政府，终结了非洲近代最惨烈战争之一的和平协议似乎也已濒临崩溃。
KHALED KAZZIHA NAIROBI, Kenya — Fighting has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray region , where former enemies are joining forces against the government and the peace agreement that ended one of Africa’s deadliest recent wars appears close to collapse.
这场危机可能会使埃塞俄比亚多个地区的冲突合流，并将邻国厄立特里亚拖入另一场战争。以下是需要了解的五个要点：在《比勒陀利亚和平协议》签署近四年后，联邦军队和提格雷地方武装互相指责对方重新挑起敌对行动。
The crisis could merge conflicts in several parts of Ethiopia and draw neighboring Eritrea into another war. Here are five things to know: Federal and Tigrayan forces accuse each other of restarting hostilities nearly four years afterg the Pretoria peace agreement.
在提格雷地方武装控制默克莱机场后，埃塞俄比亚航空本周暂停了飞往提格雷的航班。当地居民告诉美联社，连接提格雷与邻近阿法尔地区的道路已被封闭，不过美联社无法独立核实这些封闭情况。
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray this week following the seizure of Mekelle airport by Tigrayan forces. Residents told The Associated Press that roads connecting Tigray with the neighboring Afar region had been closed, although AP could not independently verify the closures.
互联网监控机构NetBlocks也报告称，埃塞俄比亚北部各地出现了网络中断情况，这让人不禁回忆起上一场战争——当时提格雷基本与外界隔绝，平民难以获得食物、药品和可靠的信息。
Internet monitor NetBlocks also reported disruptions across northern Ethiopia, reviving memories of the previous war , when Tigray was largely isolated and civilians struggled to obtain food, medicine and reliable information.
提格雷人民解放阵线已与其他六个反对派组织结成联盟，旨在推翻总理阿比·艾哈迈德的政府。
Internet monitor NetBlocks also reported disruptions across northern Ethiopia, reviving memories of the previous war , when Tigray was largely isolated and civilians struggled to obtain food, medicine and reliable information.
其成员包括阿姆哈拉法诺民族运动和奥罗莫解放军。在上一场战争中，提格雷武装和阿姆哈拉武装曾在对立阵营作战。
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has joined six other opposition groups in an alliance that aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
国际危机组织非洲之角副项目主任马格努斯·泰勒 (Magnus Taylor) 将该联盟形容为将对阿比的政治反对与“机会主义军事同盟”结合在一起。有效的协调可能会迫使联邦军队在多个地区作战。但目前尚不清楚因领土争端和深重恩怨而分裂的各派能否开展联合军事行动。
Its members include the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army. Tigrayan and Amhara forces fought on opposing sides during the previous war. Magnus Taylor, deputy project director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, described the coalition as combining political opposition to Abiy with an “opportunistic military alliance.” Effective coordination could force federal troops to fight across several regions. But it remains unclear whether groups divided by territorial disputes and deep grievances can conduct joint military operations.
《比勒陀利亚协议》于2022年11月结束了主要战事，但关于领土、安全和问责的争端仍未得到解决。
Magnus Taylor, deputy project director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, described the coalition as combining political opposition to Abiy with an “opportunistic military alliance.” Effective coordination could force federal troops to fight across several regions. But it remains unclear whether groups divided by territorial disputes and deep grievances can conduct joint military operations.
泰勒表示，该协议已经“处于濒临崩溃的边缘”（即该协议已经无法继续有效执行）。本周，TPLF（提格雷人民解放阵线）的一位发言人告诉美联社（AP），该协议已经不再具有法律效力。
The Pretoria agreement ended major fighting in November 2022 but left disputes over territory, security and accountability unresolved.
人权观察组织（Human Rights Watch）的地区主任莱蒂西亚·巴德（Laetitia Bader）指出，该协议的关键条款多年来一直被违反。她列举了持续存在的虐待行为，其中包括该组织所称的“强迫提格雷族民众离开提格雷西部地区”的行为。不过，美联社无法独立核实这些指控的真实性。
Taylor said the agreement was “on life support.” A TPLF spokesman told the AP this week that it was no longer valid. Laetitia Bader, a regional director at Human Rights Watch, said key provisions had been violated for years. She cited continuing abuses, including what the organization describes as the forced expulsion of ethnic Tigrayans from western Tigray. AP could not independently verify the allegations.
在上一场提格雷战争期间，厄立特里亚军队曾与埃塞俄比亚联邦军队并肩作战。自那以后，亚的斯亚贝巴（埃塞俄比亚首都）与阿斯马拉（厄立特里亚首都）之间的关系急剧恶化。
Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal forces during the previous Tigray war. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have since deteriorated sharply.
埃塞俄比亚指责厄立特里亚支持当地的武装反对派；而厄立特里亚则指责阿比耶政府正在为战争做准备，同时埃塞俄比亚还试图扩大自己对红海的控制权。
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting armed opponents. Eritrea has accused Abiy’s government of preparing for war as Ethiopia presses for greater access to the Red Sea .
泰勒警告称，这场冲突有可能蔓延至整个埃塞俄比亚，并牵连到厄立特里亚，从而在苏丹（该国已陷入毁灭性的战争和人道主义危机）之外，引发另一场地区性冲突。
Taylor warned that the fighting could spread across Ethiopia and draw in Eritrea. That would create another regional conflict next to Sudan, which is already experiencing a devastating war and humanitarian crisis.
根特大学（Ghent University）的研究人员估计，在之前的战争中，仅提格雷地区就有约50万名平民丧生。这一数字包括了因直接暴力事件导致的死亡人数，但研究人员认为，大部分死亡病例实际上是由于饥荒以及该地区医疗系统的崩溃造成的。这场冲突还导致数百万埃塞俄比亚北部民众流离失所。
Researchers at Ghent University have estimated that the earlier war caused about 500,000 civilian deaths in Tigray alone. The estimate includes deaths from direct violence, but researchers attributed most of the toll to famine and the collapse of the region’s health system. The conflict also displaced millions of people across northern Ethiopia.
即使在停火之后，战争的影响依然存在；后来有研究记录显示，提格雷地区仍有人因饥饿而死亡。
The war’s effects persisted after the ceasefire, with researchers later documenting deaths from hunger in Tigray .
巴德警告说，如果埃塞俄比亚再次爆发冲突，将会加剧整个地区的紧急局势。交通和通信方面的限制可能会迅速中断食品和药品的供应，同时使平民的苦难更加难以被记录和关注。
Bader warned that another Ethiopian conflict could deepen the wider regional emergency. Transport and communications restrictions could quickly interrupt supplies of food and medicine while making civilian suffering harder to document.
要防止冲突进一步升级，就必须立即停止战斗、重启谈判，并在国际社会的持续压力下，解决埃塞俄比亚国内存在的各种冲突。
Preventing a wider war would require an immediate halt to the fighting, renewed negotiations and sustained international pressure before Ethiopia’s separate conflicts converge.