The government’s early release policy is aimed at reducing pressure on oversubscribed jails.

Photograph: PA Images/Alamy Sources tell the Guardian they are braced for more offenders being bailed into the community ahead of October’s early prisoner release More sexual predators in England and Wales could be freed instead of jailed because of the pressure on courts and prisons, police sources have told the Guardian. The warning comes after the Metropolitan police commissioner, Mark Rowley, on Thursday condemned the release on bail of a man after he admitted taking pictures of children and women, and then using AI to sexualise them.

Zafer Dogan was bailed to his flat overlooking a children’s playground, from which he committed some of the offences he admitted, despite prosecutors and police saying he should be remanded in custody.

One of his victims said they had to move after courts declined to send him to jail ahead of his sentencing on Thursday, where he was imprisoned for two years.

A senior police source said they feared more such cases across England and Wales where charged suspects are released rather than jailed: “We are bracing ourselves for more of this across the country, that is, offenders who should be remanded, instead being freed on bail, to the distress of their victims. “Some forces are better resourced to deal with this than others. It is going to be a nationwide issue.” The government’s early release policy, to ease pressure on prisons where places are on the verge of running out, is expected to start next Thursday.

The police source added: “Probation is crumbling, policing is having to pick up extra offender management work which it has not had to do before. Something has got to give. “The work that will be created because of increases in crime and the management of offenders in the community will take away from regular frontline crime fighting.” Some in policing suspect courts are more reluctant than before to send suspects to prison.

A senior Met source said they believed courts were increasingly reluctant to remand knife crime suspects in custody as cases progressed, because they suspected the final sentence would not be custodial. “On knife crime we are seeing less imprisonment, possibly the effects of a mindset of courts where they think if suspects are not going to custody at the end [when convicted], why remand them to prison,” they said.

The Met released details on a new case to show the crisis the system faces.

The force said a 17-year-old boy had been bailed five times between June and September, and when released breached conditions for his electronic tag twice and committed four further crimes, including two robberies and making and distributing indecent images of children.

Officers worked 23-hour shifts hoping to see him remanded in custody, only for him to be bailed, the Met said. DS Wess Kalam, who led the investigation, said: “It is incredibly frustrating for those officers to see him repeatedly released on bail, only to be arrested again for further alleged offending or breaches.

“We continually work to make decisions which prioritise victim safety, but when an individual we have arrested and remanded is released back into the community, it both limits the impact we can have and increases the risk to the public.” skip past newsletter promotion after newsletter promotion Assistant chief constable Jason Devonport, the National Police Chiefs’ Council’s (NPCC) lead for criminal justice reform, said: “We recognise that the criminal justice system is operating under severe stress and challenging circumstances. That is why we broadly support the aim of the Sentencing Act to ease the current and long-term pressure on prison capacity.

“We continually work to make decisions which prioritise victim safety, but when an individual we have arrested and remanded is released back into the community, it both limits the impact we can have and increases the risk to the public.” skip past newsletter promotion after newsletter promotion Assistant chief constable Jason Devonport, the National Police Chiefs’ Council’s (NPCC) lead for criminal justice reform, said: “We recognise that the criminal justice system is operating under severe stress and challenging circumstances. That is why we broadly support the aim of the Sentencing Act to ease the current and long-term pressure on prison capacity.

“However, public trust and confidence in the criminal justice system must not be lost through these reforms. The system must work as one to protect the public, prioritising prison spaces for dangerous and prolific criminals.

“We will continue to play our part in arresting offenders and putting them before the courts, advocating for the toughest sentences possible where appropriate. We will also continue to work with the government to ensure we collectively have the officers and tools we need to keep communities safe.”

Rowley has made several interventions about the justice system and its failings. A senior Met source added: “The criminal justice system is overloaded, we worry we will see more and more of these cases.” The NPCC estimates costs to policing in England and Wales of early release to be £480m and a rise in crime of up to 6%.

The bill for the Met alone could be about £100m, at a time when it and other forces were already making cuts.

Zafer Dogan was released on bail to his flat near a playground. Photograph: Metropolitan police/PA The London victims’ commissioner, Andrea Simon, said: “Dogan’s case is a stark illustration of what can happen when victims’ safety is not prioritised. It is unacceptable that, in this case, it was the victims and their families who felt forced to leave their home and move into temporary accommodation after Dogan was bailed to the address he had been offending from.

“It raises serious questions about the justice system’s ability to manage the influx of offenders into the community following the early prisoner release scheme in October. Pressure to reduce the remand population cannot come at the expense of victims’ safety.” Simon said police themselves had also let down victims: “Parallels can be drawn with this case and the handling of serial sex offender and murderer Simon Levy, who was also shockingly bailed and allowed to continue his offending.

“In Levy’s case I have called on government to commit to a multi-agency review to examine and learn from the significant cross-justice agency failings from the police, crown prosecutors and the courts around information sharing and understanding and responding to risk.” A government spokesperson, asked if they agreed with Rowley’s criticism, said: “These were awful crimes and our thoughts are with the victims and their loved ones.

“The protection of victims, witnesses, and the public must always be considered when deciding whether or not an offender should be released on bail. While CPS have the right to challenge these, final decisions are made by the independent judiciary.

“We’ve brought in tough new laws to ban AI tools designed to create child sexual abuse images, target websites that spread them and stop this vile material being created in the first place.”