克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克表示，长期美债收益率走高是由更强劲的增长前景、对政府债务的担忧以及美国央行进一步加息的预期共同驱动的。
By Jonnelle Marte Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said long-term Treasury yields are being driven higher by a stronger growth outlook, concerns about government debt and expectations for additional interest-rate increases from the US central bank.
哈马克周五在克利夫兰联储主办的一次会议上表示：“我认为有许多因素在起作用。其一是增长数据表现相当稳健，我认为这是对持续表现的预期。”
“I think there are a number of things at play. One is I think that the growth numbers have come in in pretty solid way, and I think that it’s expectations of continued performance,” Hammack said Friday at a conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed.
哈马克说：“其中包含美联储的反应函数可能会是什么样以及可能需要采取哪些政策行动的因素，”她并补充称，投资者正在对美联储更多的加息进行定价。
“There’s some element of what the Fed’s reaction function might be and what policy moves might need to be,” said Hammack, adding that investors are pricing in more rate hikes from the Fed.
哈马克在2024年加入美联储之前曾在高盛工作了三十年，她表示投资者一直在密切关注政府支出和不断攀升的债务。她还表示，美国政府不得不与人工智能项目争夺资金。
Hammack, who spent three decades at Goldman Sachs before joining the Fed in 2024, said investors have been watching government spending and mounting debt. She also said the US government has to compete for funding with artificial intelligence projects.
美联储官员上周一致投票决定将基准利率上调四分之一个百分点。根据会后发布的预测中值，决策者预计年底前还会再加息一次。
Fed officials voted unanimously last week to raise their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Policymakers penciled in another increase by year-end, according to the median of projections released after the meeting.
近几天发表讲话的多位决策者指出，经济动能的迹象和强劲的劳动力市场证明可能需要进一步加息。根据联邦基金期货的价格走势，投资者也提高了对加息的预期，预计10月份加息的概率约为65%。
Several policymakers speaking in recent days have pointed to signs of economic momentum and a strong labor market as evidence that more rate hikes may be needed. Investors have also raised their expectations for rate increases, assigning about a 65% probability of a hike in October, according to pricing in federal funds futures.
美联储主席凯文·沃什上周对债券收益率上升的“主要解释”提出了略有不同的看法。与哈马克一样，他指出了对现金的竞争加剧和更强劲的增长。但他没有提及投资者对美联储政策的预期，而是指向了地缘政治。
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh offered a slightly different take last week on the “leading explanations” for why bond yields have been rising. Like Hammack, he pointed to increased competition for cash and stronger growth. But he did not mention investors’ expectations for Fed policy, pointing instead to geopolitics.