加拉加斯，9月25日——据五位政治人士和分析人士称，由于计划中对法院和选举机构的全面改革，委内瑞拉期待已久的选举可能要推迟一年甚至更长时间才能举行。尽管代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯承诺将向“全面民主”过渡，但选举仍难以如期进行。
CARACAS, Sept 25 - Venezuela's long-awaited vote may not happen for a year or more due to planned overhauls of the courts and electoral authorities, according to five political sources and analysts, despite Acting President Delcy Rodriguez's promise of a transition to "full democracy".
罗德里格斯在1月份美国发动突袭逮捕时任总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后上台执政。她在周三的联合国大会上表示，国家机构正在为选举做准备，并称政府已与反对派展开对话并保证反对派能够充分参与选举，但她并未给出具体的时间表。
Rodriguez, who took power after a US raid captured then-President Nicolas Maduro in January, told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that state institutions were preparing for elections. She said her government had opened talks with the opposition and would guarantee full participation, but gave no timetable.
包括来自政府及反对派相关人士在内的五位消息人士和分析人士指出，目前仍存在诸多障碍：首先，机构改革进程十分复杂；其次，华盛顿方面对尽快举行选举并没有表现出明显的紧迫感。
Five sources, including from parties close to the government and opposition, as well as analysts said that major obstacles remain, such as difficult institutional reforms and little apparent urgency in Washington for a prompt vote.
其中两位消息人士告诉路透社，选举很可能要等到明年年底才能举行。
Two of the sources told Reuters that an election was unlikely before the end of next year.
复杂的改革进程导致选举推迟的核心问题是：计划对最高法院的所有32名法官以及国家选举委员会（委内瑞拉最高选举机构）的五名负责人进行更换。反对派组织和国际人权观察人士长期以来一直指出，这两个机构缺乏独立性，马杜罗在2018年和2024年的连任选举存在舞弊行为。
TRICKY REFORMS At the center of the delay is the planned replacement of all 32 Supreme Court judges and the five directors of the National Electoral Council, the top electoral body. Opposition groups and international rights observers have long said that both bodies lack independence, and that Maduro's 2018 and 2024 re-elections were fraudulent.
目前，罗德里格斯领导的临时政府正与反对派的一部分势力在美国的支持下就机构改革问题进行谈判。不过，总部位于加拉加斯的咨询公司ORC的奥斯瓦尔多·马丁内斯表示，即使新的选举委员会成立后，当局仍需更新选民名单、确保所有政党都能参与选举，并解决诸如投票方式（手动还是电子）等基本操作问题。据两位了解谈判情况的人士称，仅这一过程就可能耗时长达一年。
Institutional reform is under discussion in US-backed talks between Rodriguez's interim government and a faction of the opposition. But even after a new electoral council is installed, authorities would still need to update voter rolls, ensure that all parties can compete and resolve basic operational questions such as whether voting would be manual or electronic, said Oswaldo Martinez, of the Caracas-based consultancy ORC. That process alone could take up to a year, according to two of the sources close to the talks.
美国呼吁保持稳定美国官员还表示，任何政治过渡都必须伴随着经济和社会的稳定，这进一步增加了选举时间表的不确定性。
US CALL FOR STABILITY US officials have also said that any political transition must be accompanied by economic and social stability, raising more potential questions on the electoral timeline.
“真正会威胁委内瑞拉这个持久存在的共和国的，是有人当选后却面临严重的经济和社会危机，从而导致整个国家的发展计划受到破坏，”美国国务卿马科·卢比奥本周表示。
"What would threaten an enduring republic in Venezuela would be that someone is elected and they inherit a complete catastrophe, economic and social, and then the whole project is endangered," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week.
一些批评者指出，华盛顿忽视了委内瑞拉的反对派力量，转而将推动自由选举的紧迫性降低，转而优先考虑与临时政府之间的石油贸易和投资协议。
Some critics of this position say Washington has sidelined the country's opposition and reduced the urgency for free elections in favor of oil and investment deals with the interim government.
上个月，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布美国将采取前所未有的行动，试图控制委内瑞拉五分之一的庞大石油储备。
Last month, President Donald Trump announced an unprecedented US push to take control of a fifth of Venezuela's vast oil reserves.
“特朗普政府目前优先考虑经济稳定以及与临时政府之间的石油相关交易，对于推动新的选举进程显得并不着急，”政治风险咨询公司Eurasia Group的拉丁美洲事务负责人丽莎·格雷斯-塔戈夫（Risa Grais-Targow）表示。
"The Trump administration is currently prioritizing economic stability and oil-related deals under Delcy, with little apparent urgency to move toward a fresh vote," said Risa Grais-Targow, Latin America director at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
“再加上一些必要的制度改革，这意味着新的选举最早也要到2027年底才能举行，甚至可能更晚。”
"That, along with some of the required institutional changes, suggests new elections won't be held until late 2027 at the earliest, with a possibility that it takes longer." COMPETING PRIORITIES Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's best-known opposition leader and exiled Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been notably absent from the talks with the interim government as her efforts to re-enter the country have been stymied.
委内瑞拉最著名的反对派领袖、流亡中的诺贝尔和平奖得主玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多（Maria Corina Machado）明显没有参与与临时政府的谈判；她试图重返国内的努力一直受到阻碍。
"That, along with some of the required institutional changes, suggests new elections won't be held until late 2027 at the earliest, with a possibility that it takes longer." COMPETING PRIORITIES Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's best-known opposition leader and exiled Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been notably absent from the talks with the interim government as her efforts to re-enter the country have been stymied.
一些美国议员呼吁举行选举，并指出华盛顿尚未从罗德里格斯政府那里获得任何实质性的民主改革承诺。
Some US lawmakers have called for elections and say that Washington has not secured meaningful democratic concessions from Rodriguez's government.
“稳定和经济正常化仍然是美国的优先目标，”咨询公司Teneo的尼古拉斯·沃森（Nicholas Watson）表示，“华盛顿和加拉加斯都将政治过渡视为一个‘长期’且‘没有明确时间限制’的过程。”
"Stability and economic normalization centered heavily on US commercial participation remain the priorities," said Nicholas Watson of consultancy Teneo, adding that Washington and Caracas are treating the need for political transition as a "longer-term" and "open-ended" process.
“双方都没有采取任何实质性措施来推动选举进程的进行，”沃森补充道。
"Neither is taking decisive steps toward an electoral process," Watson said.