盖蒂图片 弗里德里希·默茨自2025年以来一直领导德国 柏林记者杰西卡·帕克 49分钟前 一系列地方选举取得意外佳绩，让德国及其政府措手不及。
Getty Images Friedrich Merz has led Germany since 2025 Jessica Parker Berlin correspondent 49 minutes ago A set of bumper local elections has thrown Germany, and its government, off balance.
总理弗里德里希·默茨如今可能已是任期难保。他的联合政府正陷入危机。但德国这种偏离常态的局面已经酝酿多年。这个国家正在艰难应对一系列新的、令人不适且尚未解决的现实。对德国的一些固有印象，如今需要重新审视。一个由乏味、共识主导的政治所左右的国家？绝非如此。一个自信、处于汽车制造前沿的经济强国？那已经是过去的故事。一个足以代表非凡效率的国家？就连列车都不再准时运行。
Chancellor Friedrich Merz may now be a man on borrowed time. His coalition government is in crisis. But this breakdown of business as usual in Germany has been brewing for years. It's a nation wrestling with new, uncomfortable and unresolved realities. Think of certain stereotypes about Germany, and think again. A country dominated by boring, consensus-driven politics? Not any more. A confident, powerhouse economy at the cutting edge of car-making? Yesterday's story.
我接触过的许多德国人都觉得，本国已经偏离了那些曾经支撑其身份认同的东西。那么接下来该怎么办？这个问题至今仍没有答案。
A nation that can be used as a byword for impressive efficiency? The trains don't even run on time. Many Germans I've spoken to feel their nation has drifted away from the things that once anchored their identity.
这种不确定性如今集中体现在一位四面楚歌的总理身上。regional election results的惨淡表现令他的支持率进一步削弱。
And the question of what next is, as yet, unanswered. That uncertainty is currently embodied by a beleaguered chancellor weakened by bruising regional election results.
极右翼的德国选择党（AfD）在近期地方选举中大幅跃升。过去两周，弗里德里希·默茨所在的政党在柏林选举中失去第一名，在萨克森-安哈尔特的民调中惨败，并在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚彻底失去了议会席位。
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has made strong gains in recent local elections In the last fortnight, Friedrich Merz's party was beaten to first place in Berlin, pummelled in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt and pushed out of parliament altogether in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
默茨的一线希望是，尽管“换总理”（Kanzlertausch）的传言持续不断，但他的中右翼基民盟党内目前还没有人愿意公开挑战这位总理。
A lifeline for Merz is that no-one, within his own centre-right CDU party, is yet willing to challenge the chancellor openly despite persistent rumours of a Kanzlertausch (chancellor swap).
不过，他正如履薄冰，在选民中的支持率创下历史低点，而许多选民常说他傲慢且脱离现实。在政府圈子里，这个问题有时会被更委婉地称为“沟通”问题。
But he is on thin ice, with record low approval ratings among voters who often describe him as arrogant and out of touch.
支持默茨的人认为，现在是时候与中左翼社民党联合盟友大力推进亟需的改革，并找到更好的方式与民众沟通。
It is a problem that in government circles is sometimes more politely referred to as a "communication" issue.
“更换总理并不能解决问题，因为任何一位新任总理都会面临同样的挑战，”梅尔茨领导的基民盟（CDU）及其姊妹党基社盟（CSU）的议会外交政策发言人尤尔根·哈特（Jürgen Hardt）认为。
Those who back the Chancellor say it is time to double down on much-needed reforms, alongside its centre-left SPD coalition partner, and find a better way of talking to people. Swapping chancellors is not the answer as anyone would face the "same challenges", argues Jürgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesperson in parliament for Merz's CDU and its sister party, the CSU.
哈特指出，今年早些时候在其他地区选举中，基民盟/基社盟的表现要好得多。当时，梅尔茨刚刚在联邦议院召开闭门会议，向党内议员发表了讲话。
Hardt pointed out that the CDU/CSU fared far better in other regional elections earlier this year, when we spoke minutes after Merz addressed party lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in the Bundestag.
“我认为弗里德里希·梅尔茨很清楚自己存在的不足，”哈特说，“他会努力改进自己的工作，而我们作为一个政党也会不断自我完善。希望在未来几个月内，我们能够说服民众相信我们正走在正确的道路上。”梅尔茨于2025年上台执政，承诺将严格管控移民问题并提振德国疲软的经济。
"I think Friedrich Merz knows about his deficits," says Hardt. "He will work on him and we will work on us as (a) party. And hopefully we will convince the people in the next months that we are on the right way." Merz came to power in 2025, promising to get tough on immigration and boost Germany's ailing economy.
梅尔茨给人们带来了新的活力与希望——这或许能够缓解前中左翼领导人奥拉夫·朔尔茨（Olaf Scholz）领导的糟糕执政状况所带来的负面影响。朔尔茨领导的联合政府在执政期间面临诸多困境，最终于2025年下台。梅尔茨的盟友们认为他在某些方面确实取得了一些成绩。
He appeared to offer a dynamism that might act as an antidote to the former dull, unhappy drumbeat of centre-left leader Olaf Scholz's bickering three-way coalition. AFP via Getty Images Olaf Scholz and his three-way coalition struggled in power, and he was ousted in 2025 And Merz's allies would claim he has had some success.
本周，主要经济研究机构将德国2026年和2027年的经济增长预期上调至1%以上；同时，非法移民的数量也比去年同期有所下降。
This week, leading economic institutes raised the country's growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 above 1% while illegal entries into Germany – and Europe – are down year on year.
然而，这些积极因素并不能完全消除公众的担忧：家庭和企业仍面临高昂的能源成本；人们还担心中国会对德国的制造业（尤其是汽车产业）造成冲击。
But that will not eliminate public anxieties, on either issue. Households and businesses continue to endure high energy costs while fears persist that China is cannibalising German industry, including its iconic car sector.
这一情况彻底颠覆了德国以往的成功模式——过去德国依靠廉价的俄罗斯天然气推动了出口驱动型经济的发展。如今，在移民问题上，人们的关注点已从新移民的数量转向公共安全、福利支出以及移民的融入问题。
It is a brutal reversal of Germany's old recipe for success: cheap Russian gas that powered a booming export-driven economy. And when it comes to immigration, the focus is now less on new arrivals and more on concerns about public safety, welfare costs and integration.
尽管在某些地方存在例外情况，但选民们似乎对德国的两大执政党（基民盟和社民党）越来越失去信心。
While there are local exceptions, voters appear to be losing faith in Germany's two principal governing parties (CDU and SPD).
德国政坛中一股崛起的力量是“德国选择党”（Alternative für Deutschland，简称AfD）。该党因其亲俄立场而令安全官员感到担忧；其部分地方分支机构被国内情报机构认定为右翼极端组织。
Enter the rising force in German politics, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): a party that alarms security officials with its Russia-friendly stance and contains regional branches that are classed as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence.
面对这些指责和歪曲，AfD在上周日于东北部的梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州举行的州选举中取得了历史性的第三次胜利。
Smears and misrepresentations, argues the AfD, as it claimed its third victory ever in a state election last Sunday in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.
该党的联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔（Alice Weidel）本周表示，弗里德里希·梅尔茨（Friedrich Merz）的执政日子已经屈指可数了。
Its co-leader, Alice Weidel, told me this week that Friedrich Merz's days were numbered.
AfD是一股具有分裂性的政治力量——尽管近年来多次陷入丑闻，但它仍在全国范围内保持领先地位（支持率约为28%）。该党利用人们对过去的怀旧情绪以及人们对当前社会状况的焦虑，不断巩固其在前共产主义地区的势力基础。
The AfD are a divisive force, with their recent local election wins sparking protests The AfD has survived numerous scandals in recent years to now top the polls nationwide, at around 28%. It carries the swagger of a party making the political weather. It has capitalised on a nostalgia for the past alongside an anxiety in the present as it consolidates its strongholds in the former communist east.
我在柏林看到的一张AfD标语牌上写着：“柏林需要秩序（Berlin braucht Ordnung）”。这反映了该党试图恢复社会稳定性的承诺……不过事实上，在上周日的选举中，真正领先的是“左翼党”（Die Linke），这对德国传统的“主流政党”来说又是一次打击。
An AfD placard I saw in Berlin read "Berlin braucht Ordnung" (Berlin needs order). It is the as yet untested promise that this party can bring back a lost sense of stability. But in Germany's capital it was in fact Die Linke (the Left) that topped the polls last Sunday in a further blow to the country's traditional "big tent" parties.
此次胜利也让“左翼党”面临更多质疑，因为该党被指控存在反犹太主义倾向。不过其领导层坚称自己致力于保护犹太人的权益。
The victory has put fresh scrutiny on Die Linke, as it faces allegations of antisemitism. The party leadership has insisted it is committed to protecting Jewish life.
这次地方选举充分暴露了德国政治的矛盾与分歧：德国政治中立派的支持率持续下降，而关于AfD的争论也日益激烈。
This round of regional elections has encapsulated the country's fault lines: the eroding support for Germany's political centre, and a polarising debate on the AfD.
在战后德国，很少有地方选举能像这次一样在国内引发如此大的动荡，并引起国际社会的广泛关注。
Rarely in post-war Germany has a set of local polls generated so much upheaval at home and interest abroad.