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再看一眼——欧洲选举趋势中,极右翼的成功并非全部。Look again – there’s more to Europe’s election trends than far-right success

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德国本月举行了三场州议会选举,尽管每场选举的结果各不相同,但媒体和政治评论的大多将其简化为:“德国总理在再次败给极右翼后勉强维持权力。”自2016年——英国“脱欧”和特朗普当选之年——以来,“摇摇欲坠的主流受到气焰嚣张的极右翼威胁”已成为关于欧洲的主导叙事。但尽管这些选举至关重要,这种简化论的解读既过度简化了当代欧洲政治的复杂性,又助长了一种“民主终结”的失败主义叙事。

Germany held three regional elections this month and, although each of them had a unique result, much of the media and political commentary reduced them to: “German chancellor clings to power after latest loss to far right. Since 2016, the year of Brexit and Trump, “embattled mainstream threatened by emboldened far right” has become the overarching narrative about Europe. But while these elections were important, this reductive take both oversimplifies the complexities of contemporary European politics and drives a defeatist “end of democracy” narrative.

9月6日萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举成为全球新闻事件——考虑到德国的历史、经济及其在欧洲的地位,这理所当然。国际媒体曾推测数月,认为极右翼政党“另类选择党”(AfD)可能获得绝对多数。该党得票率创下43.8%的纪录,逼近这一目标,但迄今仍未能组建政府,尽管“左翼保守派”萨拉·瓦根克内希特联盟(BSW)态度友好。

Saxony-Anhalt’s election on 6 September was a global news event – understandably, given Germany’s history, economy and place in Europe. The international media had speculated for months about an outright majority for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The party came close, setting a record score with 43.8%, but it has so far failed to form a government, despite the amenable position of the “left-conservative” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance.

两周后,在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州的选举中,AfD再次以38.2%的得票率位居第一。国际媒体的关注度这次低得多,或许是因为这是三场选举中的第二场,但更可能是因为该党距离过半数尚远。此外,极右翼的胜利被总理弗里德里希·默茨领导的基督教民主联盟(CDU)的惨败所掩盖。联邦德国历史上首次,该党未能进入州议会。相比之下,执政的社会民主党(SPD)相对温和的失利几乎未被讨论。

Two weeks later, the AfD came in first again, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with 38.2% of the vote. International media interest was much less pronounced this time, maybe because it was the second of the three ballots, but more likely because the party was not close to reaching a majority. Moreover, the far-right success was overshadowed by the dramatic defeat for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the party did not make it into a state parliament. The relatively modest loss of the governing Social Democratic Party (SPD), on the other hand, was barely discussed.

最后,在同一天举行的柏林州选举中,左翼党取得了惊人的胜利,获得的新增选票几乎是排名第三的德国选择党的两倍。柏林极有可能将由左翼党、绿党和社民党组成联合政府执政,政府首脑将是土耳其政治难民之女埃利夫·埃拉尔普。最引人注目的是,超过半数(54%)的年轻女性投票给了这支“极左翼”政党,这反映出年轻女性中更广泛的左倾趋势,但这一趋势仍被大多数媒体和政治代表所忽视。

Finally, in the Berlin state election on the same day, the Left party (Die Linke) scored a stunning victory, gaining almost twice as many new votes as the AfD, which came in only third. Berlin will most likely now be governed by a Left-Greens-SPD coalition, headed by Elif Eralp, the daughter of Turkish political refugees. Perhaps most striking was that a clear majority of young women (54%) voted for the “far-left” party, representing a broader leftwing trend among young women that continues to be ignored by most media and politics representatives.

萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举结果常被概括为德国乃至整个欧洲的缩影,而柏林选举顶多只被视为首都城市的故事:独特的国际化大都市,居住着受过高等教育的进步人士和移民。仿佛萨克森-安哈尔特州210万的人口仅略多于柏林的一半,且是全国人口最老龄化、白人比例最高的州之一这一事实不存在。此外,梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州与萨克森-安哈尔特州比与柏林更为相似,但极有可能也将由左翼党、左翼党(注:原文为Left-Left-Green,指左翼党主导的左翼联盟)和绿党组成政府——这一惊人事实同样鲜少被讨论。

Whereas the Saxony-Anhalt election was often generalised as the story of Germany, if not Europe as a whole, the Berlin election is, at best, flattened out to a story of capital cities: uniquely cosmopolitan metropoles inhabited by highly educated progressives and immigrants. No matter that Saxony-Anhalt’s population, at 2.1 million, is just slightly over half the size of Berlin’s, and is among the oldest and whitest in the country. Moreover, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a state that is much more like Saxony-Anhalt than like Berlin, will most likely also be governed by a Left-Left-Green government – a striking fact that again has gone largely undiscussed.

这并非要说极右翼的成功和建制派政党在德国的失败不重要或不令人担忧,而是说这些并非本次选举唯一值得注意的特征。实际上,三个州中有两个将由左翼政府执政,这在许多方面更具新闻价值,因为纯粹的左翼政府在欧洲日益罕见。类似地,全球媒体对瑞典的关注在左翼阵营有望组建新政府、极右翼的瑞典民主党无法进入政府后迅速消退。

This is not to say that the success of the far right and the defeat of the established parties in Germany are not important or alarming, but they are not the only notable features of these elections. Actually, the fact that two of the three states will have leftwing governments is in many ways more newsworthy, given that purely leftwing governments are increasingly rare in Europe. On a similar note, global media attention on Sweden waned as soon as it was clear that the left bloc was likely to succeed in creating a new government and the far-right Sweden Democrats would not enter the government.

将当代政治的诸多复杂性简化为“受到气焰嚣张的极右翼威胁的困境中的主流”这一叙事,不仅因为忽视了其他重大发展而显得站不住脚——值得注意的是大城市内部发生的重要变革,多元文化选民正在向左而非向右转移(最近在哥本哈根和纽约等地均有体现)——更为重要的是,这种做法极其危险地强化了极右翼的民粹主义叙事,将政治描绘成“精英”(即所有主流政党)与“人民”(据称由极右翼代表)之间的斗争。

Reducing the many complexities of contemporary politics to an “embattled mainstream threatened by emboldened far right” narrative is not only problematic because it ignores significant other developments; notably, important transformations within major cities, where multicultural electorates are moving left rather than right (seen recently in, among others, Copenhagen and New York). But more importantly, and dangerously, it also strengthens the far-right’s populist narrative, which portrays politics as a struggle between “the elite” (that is, all the mainstream parties) and “the people” (allegedly represented by the far right).

同样,一些媒体热衷于采纳“马蹄铁”政治理论,该理论被默茨显著且策略性地使用,认为自由民主的主流受到来自极右翼和极左翼两侧的挤压。但这混淆了两种截然不同的挑战。诚然,成熟政党面临新兴政党的挑战,特别是因为年轻选民对成熟的右翼和左翼政党支持度下降,但这其中也包括绿党等自由民主政党。

Similarly, some media have been keen to adopt the “horseshoe” theory of politics, prominently and strategically used by Merz, in which the liberal-democratic mainstream is squeezed from both sides, by the far right and far left. This conflates two very different challenges though. While it is true that established parties are challenged by new(er) parties, particularly because younger voters vote less for the established right and left, this includes liberal democratic parties like the Greens, too.

此外,尽管极右翼威胁自由民主——甚至选择党(AfD)威胁民主本身——所谓的极左翼极少构成此类威胁。像左翼党这样的大多数被视为“极左翼”的政党,均为前共产党,其立场随时间推移已变得温和得多,提出的意识形态更多反映的是20世纪70年代的社会民主主义,而非前共产主义世界的革命社会主义。事实上,如今鲜有“极左翼”政党仍具有民粹主义色彩。

Moreover, while the far right does threaten liberal democracy – and the AfD even threatens democracy per se – the so-called far left rarely does. Like Die Linke, most parties that are considered “far left” are former communist parties which have become significantly more moderate over time, presenting an ideology that reflects the social democracy of the 1970s much more than the revolutionary socialism of the former communist world. In fact, few “far left” parties are still even populist these days.

因此,虽然极右翼和“极左翼”都威胁既有政党,但只有极右翼威胁自由民主。对于梅尔茨等既有政客而言,将自由民主等同于既有政党在政治上讲得通,但媒体不应无批判地传播这些说法。调查持续显示出美国政治学家罗伯特·达尔所称的“民主悖论”证据:即对民主制度的极高支持度,与对现实中现存民主状况的极高不满度并存。

So, while both the far right and “far left” threaten the established parties, only the far right threatens liberal democracy. It makes political sense for established politicians such as Merz to equate liberal democracy with the established parties, but the media should not uncritically share these claims. Surveys continue to show evidence of what the US political scientist Robert Dahl termed “a democratic paradox”: where very high support for the system of democracy is combined with very high dissatisfaction with the state of real, existing democracy.

通过凸显当代政治的复杂性,特别是寻求既有政党之外的自由民主替代方案的年轻人(女性)的挫败感,极右翼民粹主义的“建制派对极右翼”二元对立叙事和“民主终结”这种失败主义叙事都被削弱了。希望这能为新老自由民主政党腾出空间,让它们摆脱一次次迎合拥有“合理关切”的刻板印象选民这一自毁策略,转而动员并代表不同群体的不满民主主义者。

By highlighting the complexities of contemporary politics, in particular the frustration of the young (women) who are looking for liberal democratic alternatives to established parties, both the far-right populist binary of “establishment versus far right” and the defeatist “end of democracy” narrative are weakened. Hopefully this will give space to liberal democratic parties, old and new, to move beyond the self-defeating strategy of catering again and again to the same stereotypical voter with “legitimate concerns”, and instead mobilise and represent different groups of dissatisfied democrats.

卡斯·穆德是佐治亚大学斯坦利·韦德·谢尔顿 UGAF 国际事务教授,也是《今日极右翼》的作者。

Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today