唐纳德·特朗普提出了限制美国柴油出口的措施，因为不断上涨的燃料价格正在影响选民的情绪，尤其是在中期选举前夕。这一举措可能会加剧全球燃料供应的紧张局势，使澳大利亚等国家的处境更加脆弱。
Donald Trump has floated curbs on US diesel exports as soaring fuel prices squeeze voters before the midterms. The move could deepen a global supply crunch and leave countries such as Australia more exposed.
在美国国内燃料价格创下历史新高、他的公众支持率面临压力的背景下，唐纳德·特朗普呼吁禁止美国出口柴油。虽然白宫对特朗普的言论进行了淡化处理，但能源部长克里斯·赖特表示政府正在考虑实施相关限制措施。
US President Donald Trump has called for a ban on diesel exports from the United States as record-high fuel prices at home weigh on his public support ahead of the midterm elections. While the White House has softened the President's remarks, Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the administration is considering restrictions.
这一提议出台的背景是中东地区紧张局势不断升级，同时全球燃料储备量也处于历史最低水平。作为全球最大的柴油出口国，美国的任何行动都可能对全球经济产生广泛影响，尤其是对澳大利亚——在发达国家中，澳大利亚的人均柴油消费量最高。
The proposal comes at a time of rising tensions in the Middle East and critically low global fuel reserves. Any move by the US, the world's biggest diesel exporter, could have wide effects on the global economy, including in Australia, which is the largest per capita consumer of diesel among developed nations.
特朗普于2025年1月重新上任时承诺要控制通货膨胀、降低燃料价格并结束对外战争。然而，随着中期选举的临近，选民们认为他在这三个方面都未能兑现承诺。目前美国的通货膨胀率为3.4%，高于美联储设定的2%的目标；美联储也时隔三年再次上调了利率，这进一步增加了家庭和小企业的负担。
Trump returned to office in January 2025 after promising to control inflation, bring down fuel prices and end foreign wars. But with the US midterm elections six weeks away, voters see him moving backwards on all three fronts. Inflation is at 3.4 per cent, above the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target, and the Fed has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, adding to pressure on households and small businesses.
自美伊冲突爆发以来，燃料价格已经上涨了50%，给家庭带来了巨大压力，尤其是在美国农村地区的共和党控制区。选民们也对政府决定与伊朗开战感到不满。这场冲突已成为美国历史上最不受欢迎的战争（仅略高于越南战争），特朗普的支持率已跌至职业生涯的新低——32%。普遍预计共和党将在众议院失去现有的微弱多数席位，甚至有可能在参议院也失利，这将严重限制特朗普推动立法的能力。
Fuel prices have risen 50 per cent since the start of the US-Iran conflict, putting heavy pressure on households, especially in Republican strongholds across rural America. Voters are also unhappy with the administration's decision to go to war with Iran. The conflict has become the least popular war in US history, narrowly overtaking Vietnam, and Trump's approval rating has fallen to a career low of 32 per cent. Republicans are widely expected to lose their slim majority in the House, and there is also a growing possibility they could lose the Senate, which would sharply limit Trump's ability to pass legislation.
如果美国实施柴油出口禁令，那么在全球柴油市场已经面临严重压力的背景下，这一禁令将进一步加剧市场动荡。美国生产的柴油占全球总量的约20%；同时，另有20%的全球石油供应在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。沙特阿拉伯试图通过其东西向输油管道将石油出口至红海，但这一计划遭到了伊朗支持的胡塞武装组织的干扰——该组织对输油管道发动了无人机袭击，并在红海地区设置了新的封锁措施。
A US export ban would come at a time when global diesel markets are already under severe strain. The US produces about 20 per cent of the world's diesel supply, while another 20 per cent of global oil supply is blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's attempts to reroute oil exports through its East-West pipeline towards the Red Sea have been disrupted by an Iran-backed Houthi militia, which launched a drone strike on the pipeline and is setting up a separate blockade on the Red Sea.
与此同时，乌克兰持续对俄罗斯的石油生产进行攻击，导致俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京宣布延长对柴油出口的全面禁令。特朗普要求乌克兰停止针对俄罗斯石油精炼厂的攻击。随着北半球进入冬季燃油需求的高峰期，全球的燃料储备也在逐渐减少。
At the same time, Ukraine's continuing attacks on Russian oil production have led President Vladimir Putin to extend Russia's full ban on diesel exports. Trump has asked Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries. Global fuel reserves are also running low as the northern hemisphere moves towards peak winter fuel demand.
文章指出，如果美国禁止柴油出口，油价将会上涨，从而对全球经济造成负面影响。澳大利亚将受到特别严重的影响：虽然澳大利亚目前没有从美国进口柴油（除了今年3月收到的一批紧急物资外），但如果美国限制柴油出口，澳大利亚仍会受到全球油价波动的影响，甚至可能面临燃油短缺的问题。这一举措也可能对美国自身造成损害——因为国内油价下跌会导致石油供应过剩，迫使炼油厂减产。正因如此，白宫排除了全面禁止柴油出口的可能性，尽管仍在考虑其他替代方案。
The article says a ban on US diesel exports would push prices higher and hit the global economy. Australia would be especially exposed. Although Australia does not import diesel from the US, apart from an emergency shipment sent in March, it remains vulnerable to global price movements if the US restricts exports. That could even lead to fuel rationing. The move could also hurt the US, because lower domestic prices would leave the country with excess supply and could force refineries to slow production. That is why the White House has ruled out an outright ban, even though other options are still being considered.
在这些选项中，赖特提到了一项计划：根据该计划，美国燃料市场将自愿将出口产品转向国内市场。虽然具体细节尚未确定，但可能包括对燃料生产商的财政激励措施（例如税收优惠）。全球柴油短缺问题也可能会在本周于华盛顿特区举行的特朗普与习近平的峰会上被讨论。中国同样是主要的柴油生产国，双方的合作有助于缓解供应紧张的局面。白宫还可能考虑实施出口配额制度，以限制柴油的海外出口，从而避免国内市场出现供应过剩的情况。这种配额制度可以针对不同国家进行差异化实施，为美国在贸易谈判中提供更多谈判筹码。
Among those options, Wright has pointed to a plan under which American fuel markets would voluntarily redirect exports to the domestic market. While details are still awaited, that could include financial incentives for fuel producers, possibly through tax concessions. The global diesel shortage could also come up at the Trump-Xi summit in Washington DC, which began this week. China is also a major diesel producer, and cooperation to lift supply could help avoid a deeper crunch. The White House could also consider an export quota to cap diesel shipments overseas, which might reduce the risk of flooding the domestic market. Such a quota could also be applied selectively to different countries, giving the US another lever in trade talks.
目前，人们关注的焦点仍然是特朗普将如何应对国内不断上涨的燃料价格，同时全球柴油市场仍面临巨大压力。美国关于出口政策的任何决定都可能影响国内政治局势、全球燃料供应情况，以及那些对柴油价格波动极为敏感的国家（如澳大利亚）。（信息来源：PTI）
For now, the focus remains on how Trump responds to rising fuel prices at home while global diesel markets remain under pressure. Any US decision on exports could affect domestic politics, global supply and countries such as Australia that are highly exposed to diesel price shocks. With PTI Inputs