After sitting out much of the summer, President Donald Trump's political operation has started spending big. With less than six weeks until Election Day, where that money is going, and where it isn't, suggests a Senate map that is narrowing for Republicans.

In Texas, where Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in more than three decades, Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC has disclosed spending $15 million since early September to protect a Republican-held seat, according to Federal Election Commission filings. That includes $10 million earlier this month to boost Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general and the GOP nominee, and attack his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, on top of another $5 million in TV and digital ads over the weekend.

In North Carolina, where Republicans are defending an open seat, No Going Back PAC Inc., one of two new super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc., has no October ad reservations yet, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. In another pivotal Senate race, in Georgia — one of only two states where Republicans realistically have a chance to win a Democratic-held seat — it has booked only a few hundred thousand dollars’ worth of October airtime so far.

That's a sharp drop from the group's earlier spending in both states. It could still book more airtime, and the figures don't capture direct mail or canvassing. But the pullback could signal waning confidence in the Republican Senate candidates there, or a decision to leave those races to other GOP groups.

In contrast, No Going Back PAC is continuing to spend big going into October to flip Democratic-held Senate seats that are now open in Michigan and New Hampshire, and to hold on to Republican-held seats in Ohio and Alaska, according to ad spending data.

The choices offer the first real look at Trump's spending priorities for the midterms. By the end of August, MAGA Inc., which is run by the president's outside political team, had spent only a sliver of its $400 million war chest supporting other Republicans, prompting questions — including from some in the GOP — about when and how the president intended to use the money.

The answer is arriving as Republicans' financial advantage has failed to translate into political momentum. The Republican Party and its top outside spending groups have touted a cash advantage of roughly $500 million over their Democratic counterparts. Democrats, meanwhile, are outraising Republicans at grassroots campaign levels in many races and lead the generic congressional ballot by about 7 points, according to the polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne. The measure asks voters whether they would rather support an unnamed Democrat or Republican running in their House district.

Much of the money is moving through No Going Back PAC and a second new group, Safety and Affordability PAC Inc. Both launched in early September, and as of Friday, the two PACs and MAGA Inc. had together aired or reserved at least $168 million in ads backing Republicans in Senate and House races nationwide, according to AdImpact, with MAGA Inc. making up only $18 million of that so far. Neither of the super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc. has yet disclosed its donors to the FEC. Because the groups pay for the ads, the onscreen disclaimers carry their names rather than MAGA Inc.’s — a potential boon for Republicans reluctant to be tied to Trump amid a string of recent polls that show his approval rating deep underwater. Partial expenditure reports from No Going Back PAC show tens of millions of dollars spent on TV and digital ads, plus direct mail, in Senate races in North Carolina, Texas, Michigan and elsewhere. The group is also active across the House map, trying to unseat a Democratic incumbent in New York while defending vulnerable GOP-held seats in Iowa, California, Nebraska, North Carolina and other states.

Still, the MAGA Inc.-linked spending is only one part of a much larger Republican operation. Since January 2025, GOP campaigns, super PACs, political nonprofits and other groups have spent almost $4 billion on ads, according to AdImpact.

“MAGA Inc. spending is additive,” a Republican strategist working on midterm races told MS NOW. “It's not going to be determinative to the results, but it's helpful. Republicans would much rather have it than not.” (The strategist was granted anonymity to give a candid assessment of the president's political spending.) At least $1 billion is in play for the final stretch across MAGA Inc., the top super PACs aligned with GOP leadership and other Republican groups, the strategist said.

“There's more cash, more resources than ever being deployed across the Republican ecosystem,” the strategist added. “It’s an ever-evolving, ever-moving target in the last 40 days before the election.” If Democrats perform as well as the polls now suggest, this cycle could answer a question that will shape the next few: whether unlimited money, on its own, can still win close races.