作者:Peyton Forte麦当劳公司在努力提振低迷股价的过程中面临着一项关键挑战:赢回那些认为其菜单价格过高的价格敏感型食客。
By Peyton Forte McDonald’s Corp. faces a key challenge as it fights to reinvigorate a sagging stock price: Winning back the cost-conscious diners who believe its menu has become too expensive.
这家巨无霸汉堡制造商的股价已较2月份的高点下跌了近31%,正处于自2002年以来年度回报率最差的轨道上。在本周早些时候举行的投资者日活动中,该公司预计本季度美国销售额将出现“轻微负增长”,而上季度的销售额仅增长了0.8%,创下一年多以来的最慢增速。
Shares of the Big Mac maker are down nearly 31% from their February high and on track for their worst annual return since 2002. The burger chain guided for “slightly negative” US sales for the current quarter during an investor day event earlier this week, while sales last quarter rose just 0.8%, their slowest pace in more than a year.
这些信号伴随着顾客长期以来的抱怨,他们对从菜单价格到因取消游乐场和其他受欢迎设施而受损的店内体验等方方面面都表示不满。近期推出的优惠活动效果参差不齐,而本周宣布的一项旨在改善服务和食品质量的85亿美元多年计划引发了人们对利润可能被侵蚀的担忧,从而引发了公司股价的新一轮抛售。
Those signals come alongside longstanding gripes from customers, who have complained about everything from menu prices to an in-store experience that has suffered from the loss of playgrounds and other popular features. Recent attempts at value offerings have had mixed results, while an $8.5 billion multiyear plan to improve service and food quality announced this week raised concerns that it would erode profits, sparking a fresh selloff in the company’s shares.
Melius Research的雅各布·艾肯-菲利普斯(Jacob Aiken-Phillips)表示:“他们的价格大幅上涨,已不再被视为餐饮业的最佳性价比选择。”在彭博社追踪的分析师中,他是唯一对该股给出“卖出”评级的分析师。“我宁愿去德州公路餐厅(Texas Roadhouse),和家人享受真正的堂食体验,而且价格并没有贵多少。”麦当劳发言人周五重申,公司计划采取紧急行动,使美国业务在2026年结束时处于更有利的地位。
“Their prices have gone up substantially, and it’s no longer viewed as the best value in food,” said Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research, who has the lone “sell” rating on the stock among analysts tracked by Bloomberg. “I could go to Texas Roadhouse instead and have an actual sit-down experience with my family that’s not that much more expensive.” A McDonald’s spokesperson on Friday reiterated the company’s plans to act with urgency to put the US business in a stronger position exiting 2026.
2024年,麦当劳对社交媒体上批评价格上涨的帖子进行了回击:一篇广为流传的帖子显示一份巨无霸套餐售价18美元,麦当劳对此回应称,这只是美国13700多家门店中的个别情况。同年,随着这家汉堡连锁店试图扭转其食品价格过高的印象,5美元超值套餐的推出也带来了一定的提振作用。
In 2024, McDonald’s hit back at social media posts criticizing rising prices: One widely circulated post showed a Big Mac meal costing $18, which McDonald’s said was from one location in the US out of more than 13,700. That year also saw a boost from $5 meal deals, as the burger chain looked to counter perceptions that its food had gotten tooexpensive.
《经济学人》发布的“巨无霸指数”通常被用来衡量各国之间的购买力平价。该指数显示,从2019年到2025年底,美国巨无霸汉堡的价格上涨了约23%。
The Economist’s Big Mac Index, typically used as a way to compare purchasing power parity between countries, shows that the price of the sandwich in the US has risen by around 23% between 2019 and the end of 2025.
疫情过后,麦当劳开始上调菜单价格,以应对牛肉等原材料成本上升、劳动力工资增加以及燃料价格飙升所带来的压力。与此同时,消费者也受到通货膨胀和利率上升的影响,因此在消费时变得更加谨慎,更倾向于选择性价比更高的餐厅。这种竞争态势加剧了餐饮行业的竞争激烈程度,各连锁餐厅纷纷通过提供优惠折扣来吸引顾客。
McDonald’s began hiking its menu prices after the pandemic to offset surging costs for ingredients like beef, rising labor wages and higher fuel. Meanwhile, customers were also being squeezed by inflation and rising interest rates, making them more selective about where they spend their dollars. The dynamic intensified competition within the restaurant industry, with chains vying for customer traffic by dangling s and enticing shoppers with aggressive discounts.
虽然价格上涨对整个餐饮行业造成了负面影响,但麦当劳的竞争对手目前似乎表现更好。例如,Restaurant Brands International Inc.旗下的汉堡王在最近一个季度的销售额增长了8.5%,超出了市场预期,这主要得益于其重新推出的产品以及与《星球大战》系列合作的促销活动。Yum! Brands Inc.旗下的塔可钟(Taco Bell)同店销售额增长了7%,其主要原因是其售价为5美元、7美元和9美元的套餐产品吸引了更多顾客。
While rising prices have hurt restaurants across the board, McDonald’s rivals appear to be faring better, at least for the time being. Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s Burger King posted US comparable sales growth of 8.5% in the latest quarter, exceeding estimates thanks to a revamped Whopper and Star Wars promotion. Yum! Brands Inc.-owned Taco Bell reported a 7% increase in same-store sales as its $5, $7 and $9 meal boxes drove customer visits.
这两家公司的股价今年至今分别上涨了5%和下跌了8.4%,表现逊于标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)13%的涨幅。相比之下,麦当劳的股价今年至今下跌了23%。
The companies’ shares are up 5% and down 8.4% year-to-date, respectively — underperforming the S&P 500’s gain of 13%. McDonald’s shares, by comparison, are down 23% year-to-date.
投资者认为,公司与加盟店之间的分歧也是导致其销售额不佳的原因之一。首席执行官克里斯·肯普钦斯基(Chris Kempczinski)在上一份财报中表示,加盟店反对某些促销措施(例如今年推出的“10款商品价格低于3美元”的促销活动),因为这些促销虽然能促进销售额,但会进一步侵蚀已经面临成本压力的餐厅的利润。据他透露,约有三分之一的加盟店没有遵守公司的定价指导方针;此外,消费者对这类促销活动的认知度也低于公司预期的水平。目前,麦当劳大约95%的门店都是加盟店。
Investors see misalignment with franchisees as another reason for lackluster sales. Franchisees have pushed back against discounts — such as this year’s menu of 10 items under $3 — since they grow sales but eat into the profits of operators already navigating higher costs. About a third of franchisees did not follow pricing guidance, while consumer awareness was below targeted levels for the rollout, Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said during the last earnings report. Nearly 95% of McDonald’s restaurants are franchised.
其他抱怨则集中在一些较为抽象的因素上。一些曾经的忠实顾客对麦当劳感到不满,他们认为麦当劳已经失去了曾经让去餐厅成为美好童年回忆的那种魔力——尤其是在公司在疫情期间关闭了许多游乐区后,却始终没有重新开放它们。
Other complaints have focused on less tangible factors. Some once-loyal customers have taken issue with stores they say have lost the magic that made going to McDonald’s a happy childhood memory — especially after the company never reopened many of the playgrounds it had shuttered during the pandemic.
该餐厅最新的举措正是为了回应这些问题。这项名为“Next”的计划旨在通过技术投资、餐厅升级以及在鸡肉和饮料领域获取市场份额的计划来重振销售。作为大规模餐厅现代化努力的一部分,该公司还公布了翻新其“开心乐园”(PlayPlaces)的计划。
The restaurant’s latest initiative is a response to many of those issues. Dubbed “Next,” it looks to reinvigorate sales through technology investments, restaurant upgrades and plans to gain market share in both the chicken and beverage categories. The company has also unveiled plans to spruce up its PlayPlaces as part of a major restaurant modernization effort.
海港全球(Seaport Global)分析师埃里克·冈萨雷斯(Eric Gonzalez)对这一举措表示鼓舞,但他表示,这些变化可能至少需要一年时间才能产生显著成效。同时,他指出,包括资本支出预期增加和近期销售压力在内的一系列负面因素,已经反映在公司的估值中。麦当劳目前的股价远低于其五年平均估值,远期市盈率约为17倍。
Seaport Global analyst Eric Gonzalez was encouraged by the move but said it could take at least a year before the changes yielded appreciable results. At the same time, a slew of negative factors including an expected step-up in capital expenditures and near-term pressure on sales are already reflected in the company’s valuation, he said. McDonald’s shares trade well below their average five-year valuation at about 17 times forward earnings.
尽管经历了这一切,华尔街对该股的看法总体上仍持积极态度。麦当劳目前拥有24个买入评级,16个持有评级,仅有1个卖出评级。平均目标价意味着较周五收盘价有28%的上涨空间。
Through it all, Wall Street has remained mostly positive on the stock. McDonald’s has 24 buy-equivalent ratings, along with 16 holds and just one sell. The average price target implies a 28% return from where shares the shares closed Friday.
Walser Wealth Management首席投资官丽贝卡·沃尔瑟(Rebecca Walser)表示,投资者现在希望看到食品质量和性价比的提升,以及客流量持续复苏的迹象。她的公司目前持有该股票。
Investors now want to see improved food quality and value, as well as signs of a durable recovery in traffic, said Rebecca Walser, chief investment officer at Walser Wealth Management. Her firm currently owns the stock.
“麦当劳是美国文化的一部分:开心乐园餐、汉堡神偷、麦当劳叔叔、游乐区。他们需要重新设计这种体验,”沃尔瑟说。“我们确实相信麦当劳会找到走出困境的方法。”
“McDonald’s is part of the American parlance: the Happy Meals, the Hamburglar, Ronald McDonald, the PlayPlaces. They need to re-engineer that experience,” said Walser. “We really do believe that McDonald’s will find its way through this.”