达维德·巴尔布西亚和罗南·马丁报道：在全球政府债券抛售潮中，公司债表现出相对韧性，但这种强势可能难以持续。
By Davide Barbuscia and Ronan Martin Corporate bonds have been relatively resilient amid a global government bond selloff, but the strength may not last.
债券市场波动率，即衡量债券收益率方向不确定性的指标，正在急剧上升。历史上，这往往预示着公司债将面临困境，因为焦虑的散户投资者及其他资金会从市场中撤出。
Bond market volatility, a measure of uncertainty about the direction of bond yields, is spiking. Historically, that has foreshadowed trouble for corporate debt, as nervous retail investors and others pull money from the market.
目前，企业盈利强劲，且整体公司债收益率的上升部分反映了坚实的经济增长。但随着通胀压力加剧，美联储正通过加息来抑制经济增长。马萨诸塞 Mutual 投资战略主管凯利·科瓦尔斯基表示，从长远来看，高利率可能损害经济并挤压利润，而公司债目前的定价几乎没有容错空间。
For now, company profits are strong and higher overall corporate bond yields in part reflect solid economic growth. But, as inflationary pressure builds, the Federal Reserve is boosting rates to slow that growth. Over time, higher rates can hurt the economy and squeeze profits, and corporate bonds are already priced with little margin for error, said Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategy at MassMutual.
科瓦尔斯基表示：“收益率维持高位且波动的时间越长，金融条件就越具限制性，对经济活动、企业利润率及信用质量的拖累也越大。”
“The longer yields are elevated and volatile, the more restrictive financial conditions become and the more they weigh on economic activity, corporate margins, and credit quality,” Kowalski said.
其结果可能是，公司债最终表现将逊于政府债券，从而推高企业为借贷而支付的、相对于美国国债的额外收益率，这一差额被称为利差。包括纳撒尼尔·罗森鲍姆在内的摩根大通策略师本周估计，基于债券和股票市场波动率的历史衡量标准，美国高评级公司债利差应比当前水平宽约0.07个百分点。
The result may be that company bonds eventually underperform government debt, which would boost the extra yield relative to Treasuries that companies pay to borrow, a difference known as the spread. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Nathaniel Rosenbaum estimated this week that US high-grade corporate bond spreads should be about 0.07 percentage point wider than they are now based on historical measures of bond and stock market volatility.
在过去一个月中，随着油价上涨和通胀担忧加剧，各债券市场的收益率普遍大幅攀升。目前，大多数美国国债基准收益率已突破5%，其中五年期国债收益率自2007年以来首次超过这一门槛。
Yields across bond markets have broadly jumped in the last month as oil prices have climbed and inflation fears have risen. Most benchmark US Treasuries now have yields above 5%, with five-year yields climbing above that threshold for the first time since 2007.
公司债券在很大程度上并未受到这些举措的影响。周四，美国高等级债券利差为77个基点，较月初水平收窄了两个基点。寻求为未来负债提供资金的基金经理（如养老金管理机构和销售年金的保险公司）通常会在收益率上升时买入公司债券，从而支撑了公司债券的相对表现。
Corporate bonds have largely shrugged off these moves. US high-grade spreads were 77 basis points on Thursday, two basis points tighter than their levels at the start of the month. Money managers looking to fund future liabilities, such as pensions and insurers that sell annuities, often buy corporate debt when yields rise, supporting relative performance for company bonds.
PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师罗伯特·蒂普（Robert Tipp）表示：“市场在利率以相当可控的方式上升时积累了丰富的经验，因为这通常意味着经济状况良好、运行稳健。在这种情况下，市场冲击往往是相当短暂且温和的。”
“There’s a lot of market experience with times where rates go up in a fairly controlled fashion because the economy is actually good, is doing well. And in those cases, the shocks tend to be fairly short-lived and moderate,” said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds and chief investment strategist at PGIM.
即便如此，一些投资者仍在为潜在的疲软做准备。衡量美国债券市场期权波动性的ICE美银MOVE指数本周飙升至约105个基点，创下自3月以来的最高水平，远高于该指数过去十年约80个基点的平均水平。
Even so, some investors are preparing for potential weakening. The ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, known as the MOVE index, surged to about 105 basis points this week, its highest level since March and far above its average of about 80 for the decade.
此类债券市场波动性的激增可能是公司债券利差扩大的前兆，正如2023年初那样，当时债券收益率和MOVE指数均出现上涨。但这种相关性并非绝对。此外，衡量美国股市恐慌情绪的另一项指标——VIX指数并未出现跳升。
Those kinds of debt market volatility surges can be a prelude to corporate spreads rising, as in early 2023, when bond yields rose, as did the MOVE index. But the correlation isn’t perfect. And a separate measure of fear in US equity markets, the VIX, hasn’t jumped.
哥伦比亚天利投资公司（Columbia Threadneedle Investments）投资级信贷主管汤姆·墨菲（Tom Murphy）表示：“以收益率为导向的投资者希望获得更高的收益率，但他们希望这种高收益率是稳定的，而目前的收益率却远非稳定。”
“Yield-oriented investors want higher yields, but they want stable, higher yields, and yields have been anything but stable,” said Tom Murphy, head of investment-grade credit at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
近期，利用信用衍生品为北美信贷组合提供违约保护的成本也略有上升，即使在考虑了指数成分股调整的情况下也是如此，这表明投资者对违约风险变得更加不安。周五，经展期调整后的CDX投资级指数约为58个基点，而8月底时约为55个基点。
The cost of protecting a portfolio of North American credits against default using credit derivatives has also edged higher recently, even accounting for changes to the constituents of the index, a sign that investors are getting a bit more antsy about default risk. The CDX Investment Grade Index was around 58 basis points on a roll-adjusted basis on Friday, compared with roughly 55 basis points at the end of August.
收益率的攀升已开始对企业债券销售产生影响。本周，美国企业发行了约330亿美元的债券，低于交易商预测的约400亿美元。本周早些时候，部分借款人向投资者多支付了约6个基点的成本，且订单簿规模缩小。至少有一家发行方在周三暂停了发行。
Climbing yields are already having an impact on corporate debt sales. US companies sold about $33 billion of bonds this week, falling short of the roughly $40 billion forecast by dealers. Several borrowers paid roughly an extra 6 basis points to investors earlier this week, and order books shrank. At least one issuer stood down on Wednesday.
8月份投资级债券的大量发行，部分原因是市场担忧利率可能进一步走高，促使企业提前了借贷计划。富国银行全球高评级债务辛迪加业务主管莫琳·奥康纳表示，在近期美国国债收益率大幅跳升后，发行方目前变得更加谨慎。
Heavy investment-grade issuance in August was, in part, spurred by concerns that rates may go higher, with companies pulling forward their borrowing plans. Issuers have now become more cautious after the recent jump in Treasury yields, said Maureen O’Connor, global head of high grade debt syndicate at Wells Fargo.
奥康纳表示：“近期的讨论变得更加细致入微。随着10年期美国国债收益率已稳稳站上5%，市场关注的焦点已转向债券市场是否被超卖。这可能成为一些机会型发行方暂停融资计划的催化剂。”
“The conversation has become more nuanced recently. As 10-year Treasury yields are now comfortably north of 5%, the question has shifted to whether the bond market is oversold. This could be a catalyst for some opportunistic issuers to pause their funding plans,” O’Connor said.
较高的收益率通常首先冲击久期较长的债券价格，而借贷成本上升转化为违约往往需要一定时间。策略师马修·米什等人在周三的一份报告中写道，如果收益率维持高位，一些企业将面临再融资困难，尤其是评级处于最低交易等级CCC级的企业，以及私募信贷和软件行业的企业。
Higher yields typically hit prices on longer duration bonds first, and it often takes time for rising borrowing costs to translate to defaults. If yields stay high, some companies will have trouble refinancing, particularly those that are rated in the lowest-trading CCC tier, as well as companies in private credit and software, strategists including Matthew Mish wrote in a note on Wednesday.
一些策略师和投资者认为，购买更高质量的债券并降低信用风险是合理的做法。
Some strategists and investors think it makes sense to buy higher-quality bonds and cut their credit risk.
联邦海勒姆有限公司高级信用组合经理纳楚·乔卡林加姆表示：“我们必须思考这些企业能够采取哪些方式，来缓解不仅是能源成本，还有不断上升的利率成本带来的压力。”
“We have to think about ways in which we think these companies are going to be able to mitigate not only energy costs, but also rising interest rate costs,” said Nachu Chockalingam, senior credit portfolio manager at Federated Hermes Ltd.
原文内容：“这些公司不得不重新为那些原本利率仅为 3% 或 4% 的债务进行融资。如今，这些债务的利率几乎翻了一倍。因此，我们必须思考：在面临巨大下行压力的情况下，这些公司将如何维持自身的流动性及资产负债表。”
“They’re having to refinance paper that was 3%, 4%. Now we’re almost double that. So we have to think about how these companies are going to maintain their liquidity and balance sheets in this environment where there is a huge amount of bottom-up pressure that they’re having to face.”
来源：Credit Edge
Credit Edge: Magnetar Eyes $600 Billion Stressed Debt