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评论:扎克伯格的“电子宠物式”AI或成Meta的iPod时刻Commentary: Zuckerberg’s ‘Tamagotchi-like’ AI could be Meta’s iPod moment

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纽约:马克·扎克伯格这次做对了。就在Meta旗下个人AI智能体Muse广受好评并发布后不久,扎克伯格于周三晚间(9月23日)宣布了下一阶段计划:一款类似“拓麻歌子”的吊坠,可让用户随身与这款可爱助手互动。该产品预计将在圣诞节前上市。

NEW YORK: Mark Zuckerberg is on to something. Hot on the heels of Meta’s hugely well-received launch of its Muse personal AI agent, Zuckerberg announced on Wednesday evening (Sep 23) the next phase: a “Tamagotchi-like” pendant for interacting with the cuddly assistant on the go. It’s slated to be out in time for Christmas.

彭博社的马克·古尔曼介绍了Muse Charm的部分功能:屏幕中央会出现一个虚拟Muse角色,用户可以自定义其外观、服装、声音及其他属性。这款设备可以通过腕带佩戴、装进口袋,或用挂绳系在包或钥匙扣上。其半透明外壳让用户能够从背面和侧面看到内部电路。而我认为,下面这项功能将成为神来之笔:两名拥有Muse Charm的用户还可以让设备在彼此靠近时自动识别并互动。

Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman described some of Muse Charm’s features: A virtual Muse character appears at the centre of the screen, and users can customise its appearance, outfits, voice and other attributes. The device can be worn with a wrist strap, carried in a pocket or attached to a bag or keychain with a lanyard. A translucent case allows users to see the internal circuitry through the back and sides. And then, what I predict will be a masterstroke:

太可爱了!过去,扎克伯格常因看起来像机器人、脱离现实的书呆子而遭到嘲讽,但如今他为Muse助手塑造的形象已经让公司的相关产品脱颖而出,甩开竞争对手——而且我怀疑,这也促使竞争对手仓促重新审视其战略。

Two users with Muse Charms can also allow their devices to recognise and interact with each other when they’re placed nearby. How cute! For a man who in the past has been mocked for coming across as a robotic, out-of-touch nerd, Zuckerberg has struck a tone with the Muse assistant that has already set his company’s effort apart from his competitors – and prompted, I suspect, some hasty strategic rethinking.

Meta的Muse Charm以小巧的独立设备提供实时语音和虚拟形象互动,无需搭配手机。

How cute! For a man who in the past has been mocked for coming across as a robotic, out-of-touch nerd, Zuckerberg has struck a tone with the Muse assistant that has already set his company’s effort apart from his competitors – and prompted, I suspect, some hasty strategic rethinking.

时尚创新,重新塑造 或许Meta的秘诀在于亚历山大·王(Alexandr Wang)。作为去年硅谷最受热议的招募对象,王负责Meta的人工智能业务(而且我预测,他终有一天会掌管整个公司)。

Meta’s Muse Charm offers real-time voice and avatar interaction in a small standalone device that does not require a phone. STYLISH AND INNOVATIVE RECASTING Perhaps Meta’s secret is Alexandr Wang. The most-talked-about hire in Silicon Valley last year, Wang leads Meta’s artificial-intelligence efforts (and, I predict, will one day lead the whole company).

周三,在Meta开发者大会的舞台上,王(Wang)在描述Meta的成就时说得非常贴切:“就在大约六个月前,在自己的电脑上运行个人智能体还是那种‘彻底沉迷AI’的人才会做的事。”如今,通过改进技术并增添一些对消费者友好的设计,Muse之于AI智能体,正如iPod之于MP3播放器:它以一种时尚且创新的方式重塑了现有技术,从而引起了普通大众的共鸣。触达非技术圈人群所带来的回报可能是巨大的。

On Wednesday, on stage at Meta’s developer conference, Wang described Meta’s achievement perfectly when he said: “It was only about six months ago that having a personal agent running on your own computer was the sign of someone who was completely AI-pilled.” Today, by refining the technology and adding some consumer-friendly touches, Muse is to AI agents what the iPod was to MP3 players: A stylish and innovative recasting of an existing technology so it struck a chord with everyday people. The rewards for reaching the non-nerds could be enormous.

iPod的横空出世标志着苹果公司的重生。无论是通过智能手机、眼镜还是Charm设备访问,Muse都有潜力为Meta实现类似的目标。

On Wednesday, on stage at Meta’s developer conference, Wang described Meta’s achievement perfectly when he said: “It was only about six months ago that having a personal agent running on your own computer was the sign of someone who was completely AI-pilled.” Today, by refining the technology and adding some consumer-friendly touches, Muse is to AI agents what the iPod was to MP3 players: A stylish and innovative recasting of an existing technology so it struck a chord with everyday people. The rewards for reaching the non-nerds could be enormous.

但挑战依然存在。Muse的领先优势将是短暂的。OpenAI的工程师们正争分夺秒地寻求应对方案。Siri AI终于开始在iPhone上推出,且表现相当出色。扎克伯格可能会尝到“以其人之道,还治其人之身”的滋味,因为那些拥有更强大AI产品的公司只需观察他在Muse上的做法,并复制其中最精华的部分即可。

The energetic arrival of the iPod marked the rebirth of Apple as a company. Muse – whether it’s accessed through smartphone, glasses or the Charm – has the potential to do something similar for Meta. But there are challenges. Muse’s head start will be brief. OpenAI engineers are scrambling to come up with their answer. Siri AI is finally rolling out to the iPhone and seems pretty great. Zuckerberg might get a taste of his own medicine as companies with bigger AI products simply look at what he’s done with Muse and copy the best bits.

此外,还有我们所说的Meta的“信任上限”——即愿意给予Meta某种有用AI智能体所需访问权限的用户数量的上限。Meta正在要求客户给予它前所未有的信任。

But there are challenges. Muse’s head start will be brief. OpenAI engineers are scrambling to come up with their answer. Siri AI is finally rolling out to the iPhone and seems pretty great. Zuckerberg might get a taste of his own medicine as companies with bigger AI products simply look at what he’s done with Muse and copy the best bits.

有些人会直接拒绝。问题是有多少人会拒绝。盖洛普(Gallup)6月份进行的一项民意调查显示,消费者对大型科技公司的信任度很低且在持续下滑。在最新的哈里斯民意调查100强(Harris Poll 100)中,Meta在美国成年人中的声誉几乎落后于所有同行,排名第96位,而Anthropic排名第16位,苹果排名第20位,Alphabet排名第22位。

There’s also what we might consider Meta’s “trust ceiling” – the upper limit of users prepared to give Meta the kind of access that any useful AI agent needs. Meta is asking customers to trust it more than ever before. Some will just say no. The question is how many. A Gallup poll conducted in June suggests consumer trust in big tech companies is low and sliding. The most recent Harris Poll 100 has Meta’s reputation among US adults trailing almost all of its peers, ranked 96th, compared with Anthropic at 16th, Apple at 20th and Alphabet at 22nd.

然而,每天有36亿人使用Meta旗下的应用程序,而且该公司对Muse的推广方式显然与某些其他AI公司散发出的末日论调截然不同。那些公司谈论的是AI如何让我们失业,甚至可能将人类从地球上抹去。

And yet, 3.6 billion people use a Meta app every day, and the company’s playful pitch for Muse is clearly hitting differently than the doom and gloom emanating from some other AI companies. They talk about AI putting us out of jobs and maybe wiping us off the face of the Earth.

Muse 正在传达作者 Joanna Maciejewska 表达的情绪,她在 2024 年写道:“我希望 AI 帮我洗衣服、洗碗,这样我就能去创作艺术和写作,而不是让 AI 帮我创作艺术和写作,这样我就得去洗衣服、洗碗。”一个利润丰厚的机会Muse 目前还洗不了碗。但它处理日常任务的实用性正与日俱增——每一项任务都为 Meta 带来了赚大钱的利润丰厚机会。

Muse is instead channelling the sentiment expressed by author Joanna Maciejewska, who wrote in 2024: “I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes.” A LUCRATIVE OPPORTUNITY Muse can’t do the dishes yet. But its usefulness for routine tasks is growing by the day – each one of them presenting lucrative opportunities for Meta to make serious money.

让 iPod 对苹果如此具有变革意义的,不仅仅是设备本身,还有它配合 iTunes 所开启的全新商业模式——一个中心化且封闭的数字音乐商店,苹果从中抽取了经过艰难谈判的销售分成。

What made the iPod so transformational for Apple wasn’t just the device but the fresh business model it enabled with iTunes, a centralised and locked-in digital music store from which Apple took a hard-negotiated cut of sales.

这当然是 App Store 的前身,后者将这一概念扩展到各类数字商品,使苹果成为世界上最富有的公司。

That was, of course, the precursor to the App Store, which expanded that concept to digital goods of all kinds, turning Apple into the richest company in the world.

Meta 有很好的条件再次运行类似的剧本,尽管市场更加拥挤。“随着时间的推移,我们将通过从通过 Muse 进行的交易中抽取少量费用来获利,”扎克伯格周三在向开发者的推介中解释道。在他身后,一张幻灯片用巨大的字母写着:“Muse 让你赚钱。”在 Meta 22 年的历史上,公司首次瞄准了一种新的商业模式——AI 订阅、硬件销售、AI 交易分成——这可能会超越现有的模式。

Meta is well positioned to run something like that playbook again, albeit in a more crowded market. “Over time we will profit by taking a small fee from transactions” made through Muse, Zuckerberg explained in his pitch to developers on Wednesday. Behind him, a slide stated, in giant letters, “Muse makes you money.” For the first time in Meta’s 22-year history, the company has a new business model in its sights – AI subscriptions, hardware sales, cuts of AI transactions – that could eclipse the current one.

如今,广告占 Meta 收入的 98%。我想知道,如果 Muse 确实确立了自己作为首个突破性消费级 AI 代理的地位,两年后这一比例会变成什么样。

Today, advertising accounts for 98 per cent of Meta’s revenue. I wonder how that might look in two years if Muse does indeed cement itself as the first breakthrough consumer AI agent.