上周股市经历了剧烈波动:国债收益率飙升,市场对美联储进一步加息的预期增强,同时科技股也再度表现强劲。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数本周上涨了2%,标准普尔500指数上涨了1%;道琼斯工业平均指数仅勉强上涨了0.3%(该指数大部分时间都处于下跌状态,尤其是金融股和消费股受到加息担忧的严重影响)。以下是上周影响我们投资组合表现的三个关键因素:
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
1. 国债收益率的飙升:由于强劲的经济数据以及美联储鹰派言论,市场对美联储加息的预期进一步加剧,国债收益率飙升至几十年来的高位。10年期国债收益率突破5.2%,达到2007年的水平;30年期国债收益率则升至5.5%,创下2004年以来的新高。周三发布的制造业采购经理人指数报告显示,制造业依然保持韧性,但价格压力正在加剧。通常来说,强劲的经济数据应该是好消息,但由于通胀仍居高不下,这反而为美联储提供了更多收紧货币政策的空间。美联储主席迈克尔·巴尔表示“可能需要进一步调整货币政策”,进一步加剧了市场的担忧。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
2. 石油价格波动:布伦特原油价格一度攀升至每桶108美元,随后因伊朗提出与美国重新谈判夏季未能结束战争的临时和平协议,并提议重新开放具有重要战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡而有所回落。根据CME的FedWatch工具显示,市场预计美联储将在10月加息的概率从一周前的约57%上升到了66%。较高的利率会通过提高借贷成本来抑制经济活动,同时使债券相对于股票更具投资吸引力;不过,如果油价持续下跌,可能会缓解通胀和利率的压力。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
综上所述,上周股市的波动主要受国债收益率飙升、美联储加息预期增强以及石油价格波动等因素的影响。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Meta的Muse战略惊艳市场。在周三举行的年度Meta Connect大会上,Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格阐述了围绕其快速增长的个人AI智能体Muse构建更广泛生态系统的计划。自本月初推出以来,Muse已迅速攀升至应用排行榜榜首。Meta目前正将其整合到旗下的硬件设备和应用家族中,以创造更多使用该技术的方式,并最终实现商业化。作为Facebook和Instagram的母公司,Meta计划通过付费订阅从Muse获取收入,并最终从该智能体完成的交易中收取少量费用。与沃尔玛、百思买、Gap和Shopify建立的新合作伙伴关系将扩展Muse的自主执行能力,而新款智能眼镜、虚拟现实眼镜以及实验性的Muse Charm将为消费者提供更多与该技术互动的方式。这些公告进一步证明,Meta有能力将其每年超过1000亿美元的AI支出转化为广告以外的业务。投资者终于开始给予Meta应有的认可。其股价上周上涨了约13%,成为投资组合中表现第二好的股票。仅周一单日,该股就飙升了超过11%,创下自2025年4月以来的最佳单日表现,目前市值正逼近2万亿美元。即便在这一轮上涨之后,Meta的预期市盈率仍约为23倍,仅略高于标普500指数。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
微软的转型获得认可。华尔街正逐渐认同我们的观点,即微软已经走出低谷。Stifel上周将该股评级上调至“买入”,另有两家机构上调了其目标价。分析师们提到了Azure业务的加速增长以及对该公司AI投资信心的提升。尽管微软在资本支出预期上保持谨慎,但Azure的营收增长在2026财年第四季度加速至43%,预计本季度将进一步回升。这种组合至关重要。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
投资者曾质疑超大规模云服务商能否从其巨额的人工智能投资中获得足够的回报,但微软正展现出其能够上线更多算力、加速云业务增长,并保持自由现金流为正的能力。这与今年早些时候的情况形成了重大转变,当时对人工智能颠覆性的担忧、对Copilot的疑虑以及沉重的数据中心支出曾拖累其股价。此后,Azure业务重新加速增长,Copilot的付费席位已突破3000万。微软股价上周上涨超过4%,年内转为正收益,对于一只曾下跌20%的股票而言,这是一次惊人的反弹。在本月早些时候将目标价上调至550美元后,我们继续持有该股票。正如投资组合总监杰夫·马克斯(Jeff Marks)周三所言,微软是“少数量入为出的超大规模云服务商之一”。我们维持相当于持有的2级评级,鉴于7月以来的涨势,我们将等待更好的机会再行加仓。(点击此处查看吉姆·克莱默慈善信托基金持仓股票的完整列表。)关于与吉姆·克莱默合作的CNBC投资俱乐部,您将在吉姆进行交易之前收到交易警报。吉姆在发送交易警报45分钟后,才会买入或卖出其慈善信托投资组合中的股票。如果吉姆曾在CNBC电视节目中讨论过某只股票,他将在发出交易警报72小时后才执行交易。上述投资俱乐部信息受我们的条款与条件及隐私政策约束,并附带我们的免责声明。接收与投资俱乐部相关的任何信息,并不产生或构成任何受托责任或义务。不保证任何特定结果或利润。
Stocks swung through a volatile week as surging Treasury yields and rising expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes collided with renewed strength in technology names. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the major averages, rising 2% for the week, while the S & P 500 jumped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain, after spending much of the week in negative territory as fears of higher rates weighed particularly on financial and consumer stocks. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Rates become an even bigger hurdle for stocks Treasury yields surged to multidecade highs last week as strong economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised expectations for more rate hikes. The 10-year yield topped 5.2%, reaching levels last seen in 2007 , while the 30-year touched 5.5%, its highest since 2004 . A stronger-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers index report Wednesday showed resilient manufacturing conditions alongside intensifying price pressures. Normally, strong economic data would be good news, but with inflation still elevated, it gives the Fed more room to tighten policy. Fed Governor Michael Barr added to those concerns by saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Oil provided another source of inflationary pressure, with Brent crude climbing as high as $108 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the interim peace deal that failed to end the war over the summer and proposed reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The market odds of an October Fed rate hike went to 66%, up from about 57% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Higher rates tend to slow economic activity by making borrowing more expensive and bonds more competitive with stocks for investment dollars. However, a sustained decline in oil could help ease some of the pressure on inflation and rates. Meta's Muse strategy wows market At its annual Meta Connect conference Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out plans to build a broader ecosystem around Muse, the company's fast-growing personal AI agent. Muse has already climbed to the top of the app charts since launching earlier this month, and Meta is now integrating it across its hardware and Family of Apps to create more ways to use — and eventually monetize — the technology. The Facebook and Instagram parent plans to generate revenue from Muse through paid subscriptions and, eventually, to take a small fee on transactions completed by the agent. New partnerships with Walmart , Best Buy , Gap and Shopify will expand what Muse can do autonomously, while new smart glasses, virtual-reality glasses and an experimental Muse Charm will give consumers more ways to interact with it. The announcements strengthen the case that Meta can turn its more than $100 billion in annual AI spending into businesses beyond advertising. Investors are finally starting to give Meta the credit it deserves . Shares are up roughly 13% last week, making it the portfolio's second-best performer. The stock surged more than 11% Monday alone, its best day since April 2025, and is now approaching a $2 trillion market cap . Even after the rally, Meta trades at about 23 times forward earnings, only modestly above the S & P 500. Microsoft's turnaround gains credibility Wall Street is coming around to our view that Microsoft has turned a corner. Stifel upgraded the stock to buy last week, while two other firms raised their price targets . Analysts cited accelerating Azure growth and improving confidence in the company's AI investments. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 43% during its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and is expected to pick up again this quarter, even as Microsoft holds the line on its capital spending outlook. That combination is important. Investors have questioned whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns on their enormous AI investments, but Microsoft is showing it can bring more capacity online, accelerate cloud growth, and remain free cash flow positive. That's a major shift from earlier this year, when fears of AI disruption, concerns about Copilot, and heavy data center spending weighed on the stock. Azure has since reaccelerated, and Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats. Microsoft shares rose more than 4% last week and turned positive for the year, a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%. We're sticking with the stock after raising our price target to $550 earlier this month. As portfolio director Jeff Marks said Wednesday , Microsoft is "one of the few hyperscalers that is living within their means." We maintain our hold-equivalent 2 rating and would wait for a better opportunity to add after the rally since July. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.