卡门·赖因尼克。人工智能可能把人类全部消灭，也可能只是终止我们不想要的订阅服务。
By Carmen Reinicke Artificial intelligence could wipe us all out. Or it might just kill our unwanted subscriptions.
过去两周，股市一直在这两个极端之间摆动，数以千亿美元计的资金从人工智能相关股票中流出，随后又流回这些股票，同时让疲于追赶行情的投资者神经紧绷。
Those are the two extremes the stock market has swung between over the past two weeks, sending hundreds of billions of dollars sloshing out of — and then back into — AI-exposed stocks while fraying the nerves of investors scrambling to keep up.
“这是一个由叙事驱动的市场，而叙事每隔一周就会发生变化。”拉弗·滕勒投资公司首席执行官南希·滕勒说。
Those are the two extremes the stock market has swung between over the past two weeks, sending hundreds of billions of dollars sloshing out of — and then back into — AI-exposed stocks while fraying the nerves of investors scrambling to keep up.
这一切始于9月12日。当时，Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊呼吁放缓尖端人工智能模型的研发，很快得到OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼和SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的支持。这些表态似乎印证了业界近期的一系列警告，即这项技术可能给人类带来存亡风险。
“This has been a narrative market and the narrative changes every other week,” said Nancy Tengler, chief executive officer at Laffer Tengler Investments. It started on Sept. 12, when Anthropic Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in development of cutting-edge AI models, which was quickly backed by OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman and SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. The moves seemed to validate a series of recent warnings from within the industry about existential risks posed by the technology.
股票市场的反应十分迅速。阿莫代伊的文章发表后首个交易日，人工智能基础设施类股大幅下挫，因为投资者担心，放缓研发意味着算力设备支出将减少。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在9月14日至15日期间下跌1.5%，市值蒸发逾6000亿美元，CoreWeave和泛林集团等个股跌幅超过9%。
The response in the stock market was swift. On the first trading day after Amodei’s essay was published, AI infrastructure stocks tumbled, as investors worried that hitting the brakes on development would mean less spending on computing equipment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 1.5% between Sept. 14 and 15, erasing more than $600 billion in market value as stocks like CoreWeave Inc. and Lam Research Corp. fell more than 9%.
然而，上周，随着Meta Platforms的Muse个人助理人气飙升，这些担忧逐渐烟消云散，交易员纷纷抢购人工智能相关股票。周一，Meta股价上涨11%。这家Facebook和Instagram的母公司有望创下十多年来最佳单月表现。此前，由于担心人工智能领域的高额投入难以获得回报，该公司在今年大部分时间一直表现承压。
The response in the stock market was swift. On the first trading day after Amodei’s essay was published, AI infrastructure stocks tumbled, as investors worried that hitting the brakes on development would mean less spending on computing equipment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 1.5% between Sept. 14 and 15, erasing more than $600 billion in market value as stocks like CoreWeave Inc. and Lam Research Corp. fell more than 9%. But those fears vanished last week as excitement about the popularity of Meta Platforms Inc.’s Muse personal assistant sent traders rushing back into AI exposed stocks.
Arm控股公司周一大涨17%，英特尔公司和超威半导体公司均飙升逾9%。费城证券交易所半导体指数（代码为SOX）周一和周二均上涨6%，推动纳斯达克100指数创下自6月初以来的首次纪录。
Meta shares jumped 11% on Monday, putting the Facebook and Instagram parent on pace for its best month in more than a decade after struggling for much of the year amid concerns that heavy spending on AI wouldn’t pay off.
这也引发了依赖定期账单和议价定价的公司的股票遭抛售，因为AI智能体预计将更擅长价格比较、行程预订和客户服务互动等任务。保险公司全州保险本周下跌8.9%，有线电视运营商查特通信公司重挫12%，行星健身公司则下跌14%。
Arm Holdings Plc jumped 17% on Monday while Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. each rallied more than 9%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, known by its ticker SOX, gained 6% on Monday and Tuesday, helping to push the Nasdaq 100 to its first record since early June.
即便如此，截至本周末，自9月15日低点以来，纳斯达克100指数的市值已增加3万亿美元。
It also triggered selloffs in the shares of companies that rely on recurring bills and negotiable pricing as AI agents are expected to improve at tasks like price comparison, trip bookings and customer service interactions. Insurer Allstate Corp. fell 8.9% this week while cable-provider Charter Communications Inc. sank 12% and Planet Fitness Inc. shed 14%.
Wayve资本管理公司首席策略师Rhys Williams表示：“这些股价在两个方向上的波动都令人震惊。从基本面角度看，很难解释。”当然，在这个市场中，情绪迅速变化并不罕见；在AI的推动下，该市场已连续近四年上行。2025年初，人们担心中 国以低成本开发的DeepSeek人工智能模型会引发支出收缩，导致半导体股暴跌。主导AI芯片市场的英伟达公司单日下跌17%。
It also triggered selloffs in the shares of companies that rely on recurring bills and negotiable pricing as AI agents are expected to improve at tasks like price comparison, trip bookings and customer service interactions. Insurer Allstate Corp. fell 8.9% this week while cable-provider Charter Communications Inc. sank 12% and Planet Fitness Inc. shed 14%. Still, by the end of the week, $3 trillion had been added to the Nasdaq 100 since the Sept. 15 low.
尽管事实证明这些担忧是多余的，但随着科技巨头和AI初创企业的支出激增，AI对市场和经济学的重要性反而有增无减。这也使投资者神经紧绷，尤其是在涉及AI颠覆性影响时。
“The moves are staggering in both directions,” said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management. “It’s hard to explain from a fundamental point of view.” Of course, rapid changes in sentiment are nothing new in this market, which has been propelled higher by AI for nearly four years. In early 2025, fears about a pullback in spending sparked by a DeepSeek AI model, developed on the cheap in China, caused semiconductor stocks to plunge. Nvidia Corp., which dominates the market for AI chips, dropped 17% in a single day.
由Muse引发的抛售令人想起今年早些时候的情景：Anthropic发布AI工具，曾令从软件即服务公司到资产管理公司等众多行业的股票重挫。
“The moves are staggering in both directions,” said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management. “It’s hard to explain from a fundamental point of view.” Of course, rapid changes in sentiment are nothing new in this market, which has been propelled higher by AI for nearly four years. In early 2025, fears about a pullback in spending sparked by a DeepSeek AI model, developed on the cheap in China, caused semiconductor stocks to plunge. Nvidia Corp., which dominates the market for AI chips, dropped 17% in a single day.
不过，在AI支出方面，投资者除了担忧安全问题外，还在应对其他风险。利率飙升，推高了AI开发成本。与此同时，反对数据中心的声浪日益高涨。
While those fears proved to be misplaced, AI has only gotten more important for the market and the economy with spending from tech giants and AI startups ballooning. And that’s giving investors itchy trigger fingers, especially when it comes to AI disruption.
有关资金流入放缓的担忧，在半导体股票上体现得尤为明显。SOX指数从年初到6月22日一度翻倍，随后暴跌29%，于7月29日触及低点。尽管该指数已经反弹，但较6月峰值仍低13%. Advisors Capital Management投资组合经理乔安·菲尼（JoAnne Feeney）表示，这轮抛售挤出了股票价格中的大量泡沫，使许多公司具备进一步上涨的空间。
The Muse-driven selloff had echoes of earlier this year when releases of AI tools from Anthropic sent shares in a broad range of industries tumbling, from software-as-a-service companies to asset managers. But when it comes to AI spending, investors are grappling with other risks in addition to safety. Interest rates are soaring, making the cost of AI development more expensive. And there’s a rising backlash against data centers.
“你不必相信这种增长速度会持续五年，才愿意持有英伟达、博通以及其他一些公司的股票，因为它们的估值已经大幅回落，”菲尼说。她的公司持有这两家公司的股份。“我们很可能已经为市场重新关注人工智能基础设施建设的核心参与者做好了准备。”英伟达股价近期跌至十多年来最低估值。根据彭博汇编的数据，英伟达未来12个月预期利润的市盈率不足17倍，仅为2025年的一半。
Fears about that flow of money slowing down have been most apparent in semiconductor stocks. After doubling from the start of the year through June 22, the SOX tumbled 29% to a July 29 low. While the index has staged a rebound, it remains down 13% from the June peak.
其他投资者采取了更加谨慎的态度。Sands Capital Management投资组合经理丹尼尔·皮林（Daniel Pilling）认为，人工智能概念投资仍面临巨大风险，尤其是因为没有人知道这项技术未来将走向何方。
The selloff has knocked a lot of the froth out of stock prices, leaving many of the companies poised for more gains, according to JoAnne Feeney, a portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management.
“在管理这类投资时，对于自己能做什么、知道什么，我们始终保持非常谦逊的态度，”皮林说。“但归根结底，我其实仍会说，相较于5月和6月时的那种乐观情绪，我认为现在或许更多是一种对人工智能的担忧。”滕格勒（Tengler）表示 Such skepticism is plentiful and a sign that the market remains healthy. What you don’t want is euphoria, which is what we had at the end of the nineties,” she said, referring to the dot-com bubble. Investors will get the latest read on the outlook for AI spending this week when memory chip maker Micron Technology Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday after markets close.有一点似乎大家都认同：市场情绪的快速波动在短期内不会消失。
“You don’t have to believe that this pace of growth is going to continue for five years in order to own companies like Nvidia or Broadcom and some of the others, because their valuations have really come in,” said Feeney, whose firm holds shares of both companies. “We may very well be positioned for renewed interest in the key contributors to the AI infrastructure build out.” Nvidia shares recently hit their cheapest valuation in more than a decade. At less than 17 times profit expected over the next 12 months, the stock’s multiple is half what it commanded in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Other investors are taking a more cautious approach. Daniel Pilling, a portfolio manager at Sands Capital Management, still sees plenty of risk in the AI trade, particularly because no one knows what’s in store for the technology. “We manage it with a lot of humility in terms of what we can do and what we know,” said Pilling. “But net-net I would actually still say that maybe there’s a sense of AI concern, I suppose rather than sort of that bullishness that we had in May and June.” Such skepticism is plentiful and a sign that the market remains healthy, according to Tengler. “What you don’t want is euphoria, which is what we had at the end of the nineties,” she said, referring to the dot-com bubble. Investors will get the latest read on the outlook for AI spending this week when memory chip maker Micron Technology Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday after markets close.
“人们很容易关注那些负面因素（即市场可能带来的破坏性影响），同样也容易关注那些积极因素（即市场可能带来的积极变化），”Motley Fool Asset Management 的首席投资策略师兼投资组合经理 Bill Mann 说道。该公司管理的资产规模约为 27 亿美元。“在未来的很长一段时间里，这都将是我们市场运行的现实。”
One thing everyone seems to agree on is that rapid sentiment swings aren’t going away any time soon. “It’s easy to focus on the destruction argument, and it’s equally easy to focus on the potential creation argument,” said Bill Mann, chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at Motley Fool Asset Management, which has about $2.7 billion in assets. “That’s going to be our reality in the markets for a while.”