藤冈彻和伊藤澄男 据曾负责货币政策的前执行董事透露，日本央行可能在10月议息会议上连续第二个月加息，这比许多经济学家预期的要早。
By Toru Fujioka and Sumio Ito The Bank of Japan could raise its benchmark rate for a second straight month when the board meets in October, earlier than many economists expect, according to a former executive director in charge of monetary policy.
“基本节奏大概是每三个月一次，但也有合理的可能性让日本央行在连续会议上加息，”前执行董事门间一夫周五在接受彭博社采访时表示。“我估计这种可能性在20%到30%左右。”门间是在植田和男行长领导的董事会上调政策利率一周后发表上述言论的，那次加息距离6月份的加息相隔三个月，标志着加息步伐从之前大约每六个月一次加快。植田解释称，日本央行已进入新阶段，重点从引导潜在通胀向2%上行转向防止其超过该目标。
“The basic pace will probably be once every three months, but there’s also a reasonable chance that the BOJ could raise rates at consecutive meetings,” Kazuo Momma, the former executive director, said in an interview with Bloomberg Friday. “I’d put that possibility at around 20% to 30%.” Momma spoke one week after Governor Kazuo Ueda’s board lifted the policy rate three months after an increase in June, marking an acceleration from the previous pace of hiking roughly once every six months. Ueda explained that the BOJ had entered a new phase, shifting its focus from coaxing underlying inflation higher toward 2% to preventing it from overshooting that target.
门间表示，这种措辞旨在向市场发出信号，表明现在政策重心已转移，更快的加息步伐可能在即。
Momma said the language was intended to signal to markets that faster rate hikes could be in store now that the policy focus has shifted.
“日本央行一直非常强调潜在通胀可能升至2%以上的风险，”门间说。“考虑到这一点，我认为未来三个月这种风险不会减弱。如果有变化，反而更可能增加。”央行周五发布的价格趋势数据支持了这一断言。日本央行剔除生鲜食品和临时因素的通胀指标在8月加速上涨2.6%，高于7月的2.3%。门间表示，除了上行价格风险，日本央行还强调基准利率1.25%仍然偏低。
“The BOJ has been stressing quite strongly that there is a risk that underlying inflation could rise above 2%,” Momma said. “Given that, I don’t think that risk will diminish over the next three months. If anything, it’s more likely to increase.” The central bank released price trend data Friday that supported that assertion. The BOJ’s inflation gauge that excludes fresh food and temporary factors accelerated to a 2.6% gain in August from 2.3% in July. In addition to upside price risks, Momma said, the BOJ has also emphasized that at 1.25% the benchmark rate is still low.
“将这两点结合起来，目前最有力的论据是日本央行应相对较快地加息，”现任瑞穗研究与技术公司首席经济学家的门间表示。
“Put those two things together, and the most compelling argument right now is that the BOJ should move relatively quickly to raise rates,” said Momma, currently executive economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies.
在 Momma 的基准情境中，日本央行的政策利率将在明年 6 月或 7 月升至约 2% 的终端利率，这意味着董事会可能还会再加息三次，每次 25 个基点。彭博社调查的经济学家中位数预估将终端利率定在 1.75%。
In Momma’s base case, the BOJ’s policy rate will rise to a terminal rate of around 2% in June or July next year, meaning the board will likely conduct three more quarter-point increases. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg put the terminal rate at 1.75%.
本月标志着日本央行、美联储和欧洲央行首次在同一个月内均加息。
This month marked the first time that the BOJ, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank all raised rates in the same month.
在 9 月日本央行会议后，尽管加息了，日元却走弱，此前有两名董事浅田等一郎和佐藤彩野投了反对票。这两人是今年早些时候由首相高市早苗任命的最新董事会成员。这位首相以支持货币宽松著称。
Following the September BOJ gathering, the yen weakened despite the rate change after two board members, Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, voted against the hike. The two are the newest members of the board after having been chosen by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this year. The premier is known for her support of monetary easing.
“我不知道是否还会再出现异议票，但我认为这不会改变日本央行加息的进程，”Momma 表示。他说，政府不太可能试图阻止日本央行将政策设定常态化，因为这样做可能引发日元进一步走弱。日元疲软会增加通胀压力，因为日本严重依赖进口来满足其能源和粮食需求。
“I don’t know if there will be dissents again, but I don’t think they will change the course of BOJ rate hikes,” Momma said. He said it’s unlikely the government will attempt to prevent the BOJ from normalizing its policy settings, as doing so could trigger further yen weakness. A weak yen adds to inflationary pressures, as Japan relies heavily on imports to meet its energy and food needs.
隔夜掉期市场的定价显示，截至周五下午，交易员认为日本央行在 10 月 30 日下一次决议上加息的概率为 30%。
Pricing in the overnight swaps market shows that as of Friday afternoon, traders were assigning a 30% chance of a hike at the next decision on Oct. 30.
经济学家预期行动节奏会稍慢一些。在 9 月会议前的彭博调查中，1 月是最受青睐的下一次加息时点，58% 的受访者选择了该月。约 35% 的人预计日本央行将在 12 月再次行动。Momma 不认同主流观点。
Economists see a slightly slower pace of action. In a Bloomberg survey ahead of the September meeting, January was the most popular pick for a follow-up hike, chosen by 58% of respondents. About 35% saw the BOJ acting again in December. Momma doesn’t agree with the majority view.
“辩论的焦点实际上在于日本央行是否会得出结论，认为无法等到 12 月才加息，”Momma 说。“我认为将下一次加息推迟到 1 月或更晚的可能性极低。”
“The focus of the debate is really whether the BOJ will conclude that it can’t wait until December to raise rates,” Momma said. “I think the possibility of delaying the next hike until January or later is extremely low.”