总部位于新加坡的金融服务集团华侨银行(OCBC)研究部门表示,日元作为全球被低估程度最严重的货币之一,正处于转折点附近。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
华侨银行外汇策略师沈茂雄(Sim Moh Siong)和克里斯托弗·黄(Christopher Wong)在周一的一份报告中指出:“然而,与人民币不同,日元的低估值并未能有效缓解其贬值压力。”
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
今年7月,日元汇率飙升至数十年来的高点,日本和美国当局罕见地进行了联合干预,此举挤压了日元的投机性空头头寸,并释放出决策者对日元过度疲软感到担忧的信号。华侨银行表示,若没有国内政策调整的支持,“单靠干预不太可能带来持续的复苏”。不过,该行补充称,这种支持可能“终于开始显现”。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
该行指出:“日本央行似乎越来越愿意加快政策正常化的步伐,从而缩小与其他主要央行之间的政策差距。”
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
尽管日本央行“在短期内不太可能比美联储表现得更为鹰派”,但目前的政策方向似乎对日元更为有利。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
华侨银行将2026年底的日元兑美元汇率预测从160上调至155,并预计到2027年底将达到150。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
华侨银行表示:“随着政策和资金流动动态变得日益有利,我们预计日元被严重低估的状态将成为外汇表现中更具意义的驱动因素。”
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
该行还指出,日本的投资组合流动存在转变的潜力,如果“出现任何向国内资产回流的实质性举措”,日元可能会受益于“强大的顺风”。“我们预计未来会有更多旨在鼓励日本投资者进行国内投资的政策举措。”
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
该行还预计,随着日元的走强,瑞士法郎将继续成为投资者进行套利交易时的首选融资货币。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.
“我们的预期进一步强化了这一观点,即[瑞士国民银行]至少在年底前会将政策利率维持在0%,从而保持瑞士法郎作为低收益率融资货币的地位,”它补充道。
The Japanese yen, one of the most undervalued currencies globally, is near a turning point, according to Singapore-based financial services group OCBC's research unit. "Unlike the CNY [Chinese Yuan], however, its cheap valuation has done little to ease depreciation pressures," OCBC forex strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said in a report on Monday. There was a rare coordinated intervention by Japan and U.S. authorities after the yen surged to multi-decade highs in July, squeezing speculative short yen positions and signaling policymakers' concerns over excessive weakness in the yen. That "intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery without support from domestic policy changes," OCBC said. However, that support may "finally be emerging," it added. "The [Bank of Japan] appears increasingly willing to normalize policy at a faster pace, narrowing the policy gap with other major central banks," the bank noted. The direction appears to be more supportive for the yen, though the BoJ is "still unlikely to outhawk the Fed in the near term." OCBC revised its yen forecast for end-2026 to 155 against the U.S. dollar from 160 and expects is to be at 150 by end-2027. "We expect the JPY's deep undervaluation to become a more meaningful driver of FX performance as policy and flow dynamics turn increasingly supportive," OCBC said. There is the potential for a shift in Japanese portfolio flows, and the yen could benefit from a "powerful tailwind" should there be "any meaningful move back towards domestic assets," the bank said. "We expect further policy initiatives aimed at encouraging domestic investment by Japanese investors." The bank also expects the Swiss franc to remain the preferred funding currency among investors for carry trades, as the Japanese yen strengthens. This view is reinforced by our expectation that the [Swiss National Bank] keeps policy rates at 0% through at least year-end, preserving the CHF's role as a low-yielding funding currency," it added.