法伊萨尔·伊斯兰报道:首相在周日早晨接受BBC采访时,就一项曾被视为“政治上不可触碰”的政策的前景发表了讲话,这一讲话引发了广泛讨论。
By Faisal Islam The prime minister's Sunday morning BBC interview set hares running when it comes to the future of a policy once seen as politically untouchable.
首相提出的新社会福利计划,使得人们猜测政府可能即将宣布结束实施已持续16年的“国家养老金三重保障机制”(即养老金每年至少增长2.5%,或与物价或收入增长幅度保持一致)。
The timing of the PM's new social care plan sparked suggestions the government could be about to signal the death knell to the state pension triple lock after 16 years.
安迪·伯纳姆表示,他将在工党的下一届大选宣言中提出相关改革措施,争取在下一届议会中获得通过这些改革的授权。
Andy Burnham said he will put forward tough decisions to fund a new national care service as part of Labour's next general election manifesto, seeking a mandate to make the changes next Parliament.
“国家养老金三重保障机制”本应在本届议会结束时失效,但事实上该机制仍持续实施。
The triple lock, which in theory expires at the end of this Parliament, means state pensions rise every April by at least 2.5%, or in line with the highest of prices or earnings.
本月早些时候,BBC新闻曾向财政大臣约翰·希利询问关于下一届议会是否会改变这一机制的问题,希利回应称:“首相和我都认为,我们必须降低福利支出。”
Earlier this month, BBC News put this precise question about changing the triple lock in the next Parliament to Chancellor John Healey, who replied "the PM has said, like I have, that we must bring down welfare costs".
这一回答其实并未直接否认改革的必要性,只是反映了这样一个事实:首相一直面临着各种建议——包括来自他的一些亲信经济学家的建议——认为在当前债券市场形势严峻、各国债务负担沉重的背景下,废除或至少暗示废除这一机制对英国的经济政策来说是一个绝佳的机会。
It was a non-denial reflecting the fact that the PM has been besieged with advice, including from some of his favourite economists, that scrapping the triple lock, or even signalling it is a future possibility, is a golden opportunity for Britain's economic policy at a tricky moment in the bond markets for all heavily indebted nations.
英国历来以政府在长期改革问题上回避责任而著称。这一次,伯纳姆和希利是否试图改变这种负面印象呢?
The UK specifically is seen as a place where successive governments have shirked tough long-term decisions. Could this be Burnham and Healey's attempt to shift that perception, even in the slightly wild markets for government borrowing?
不过,政治层面的因素更为复杂。改革的支持者认为,这项政策可能是工党与保守党之间的重要分歧点。
The UK specifically is seen as a place where successive governments have shirked tough long-term decisions. Could this be Burnham and Healey's attempt to shift that perception, even in the slightly wild markets for government borrowing?
威斯敏斯特的许多人士私下认为,奥斯本时代推行的养老金政策在经济上已不可持续,但在政治上却难以废除。
The politics are trickier. Reform's leaders see the policy as a key potential dividing line with Labour.
许多养老金权益倡导者指出,即便养老金有所增加,按照国际标准来看,英国的养老金水平仍然不算高;不过其他国家的养老金制度和发放率也存在很大差异。
Many in Westminster privately agree the Osborne-era policy is unsustainable economically, but argue it is politically impossible to unpick.
前部长们指出,将养老金资金重新用于提供实物形式的护理服务(即以实物或服务而非现金形式提供护理)这一做法,可能会改变现有的争论焦点(即关于养老金政策的讨论方向)。
Many pensions campaigners point to the fact that even after increases, the UK's state pension is not generous by international standards, though other countries have very different systems and rates of private provision. Former ministers point out that the quid pro quo of redeploying the pension cash savings towards an in kind care service could shift the argument.
目前,养老金的“三重保障机制”每年耗资155亿英镑,这一数字是2030年预估成本的三倍;尤其是由于物价和收入的波动性,这一成本还在不断上升。
The lock is costing £15.5bn a year, treble original estimates of the 2030 cost, especially because of the volatility of prices and earnings.
如果重新恢复养老金与收入挂钩的机制,从长远来看每年可以节省数十亿英镑。这笔节省下来的资金有可能用于资助某种形式的全国性护理服务;在物价波动较大的环境下,甚至还有剩余资金作为缓冲资金。不过,这取决于护理计划的具体目标、替代“三重保障机制”的新方案的慷慨程度,以及未来物价的波动情况。
Reverting to an earnings link could save tens of billions of pounds a year in the long run. It is the sort of saving that could plausibly fund some form of national care service, potentially with cash left over as a buffer in a volatile world - but that depends on the ambition of the care plan, the generosity of any replacement for the triple lock, and how volatile prices are in the long term.
此前,这种做法在政治上被认为是不可行的;但现在政府似乎正在考虑这一方案,至少是针对未来的情况。
It had been deemed politically unthinkable, but the government now seems to be thinking about it, at least for the future.