就在几周前，在共和党的中期大会上，唐纳德·特朗普总统做出了一个惊人的承诺：如果共和党在11月保持对国会的控制权，他将向每位美国成年人发放5000美元支票。然而，尽管99.99%的人都能用上这额外的五千美元，共和党候选人却在演讲中避而不谈，既未在电视广告中提及，也未在社交媒体视频中宣传。
It was only a couple of weeks ago, at the Republican Party’s midterm convention, that President Donald Trump made a dramatic promise: If Republicans retain control of Congress in November, he will deliver a $5,000 check to every American adult. Yet even though 99.99% of people could use an extra five grand, GOP candidates aren’t talking about it in their speeches, putting it in their TV ads or recording social media videos about it.
事实上，特朗普本人似乎也意识到这个主意反响平平。即使他仍在寻找最后时刻的噱头来扭转共和党在中期选举中的颓势，现实或许已开始渗透进椭圆形办公室。
In fact, Trump himself seems to have realized that the idea went over like a lead balloon And even as he continues to search for a last-minute gimmick to reverse Republicans’ midterm fortunes, reality may be setting in, even in the Oval Office.
特朗普最近表达兴趣的主意是暂时禁止柴油出口。这一提议主要由中西部共和党人推动，至少指出了一个真实问题。柴油价格创下历史新高——平均每加仑超过6.50美元——燃油成本上涨影响了美国人购买的几乎所有商品价格。
The latest idea Trump expressed interest in was a temporary ban on diesel exports. That proposal, pushed primarily by Republicans in the Midwest, at least has the benefit of identifying a genuine problem. Diesel prices are at their highest point in history —averaging more than $6.50 per gallon — and the increased fuel costs affect prices for just about everything Americans buy.
一项民调显示，只有13%的选民相信特朗普真打算给每位美国人发5000美元。
One poll finds only 13% of voters believe Trump genuinely intends to send Americans $5,000 each.
问题在于，柴油出口禁令可能无法降低价格，反而会引发更多问题，如加剧全球能源危机。包括大型石油公司在内的主要商业团体联盟敦促特朗普不要实施该禁令，甚至在特朗普政府内部也遭到反对，最著名的是能源部长克里斯·赖特。
The problem is that a diesel export ban might not bring prices down, and would cause more problems like deepening the global energy crisis. A coalition of major business groups, including Big Oil, urged Trump not to go ahead with it, and the idea got pushback even in Trump’s administration, most notably from Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
因此，柴油出口禁令是否推进仍不确定。将其加入特朗普竞选季那些要么适得其反（如试图通过增加国外牛肉进口降低杂货店物价，却激怒了农业州共和党人），要么被搁置一旁的噱头清单中（如5000美元支票）。
So now it’s uncertain whether the diesel export ban will go forward. Add it to the list of Trump’s election-season gimmicks that either backfired (like importing more beef from abroad in an attempt to lower prices at the grocery store, which enraged farm state Republicans ) or were simply shoved to the back burner (like the $5,000 checks).
随着选民将中期选举变成对特朗普的公投，共和党的希望变成了恐慌 2026年9月26日之所以出现这种局面，有两个原因。首先，足够多的选民终于意识到了特朗普承诺的空洞性。
Republican hopes turn to panic as voters make the midterms a referendum on Trump September 26, 2026 There are two reasons why none of this is working. First, enough voters have finally realized the emptiness of Trump’s promises.
毕竟，2024年他站在一堆满满当当的杂货前宣称：“我一旦获胜，将立即降低物价，从第一天开始”，并承诺在任期第一年，“我将把能源和电力价格减半。”因此，两年后的今天，一项民调发现只有13%的选民相信特朗普真心打算给每位美国人发放5000美元，这并不令人意外。
After all, in 2024 he stood in front of a table full of groceries and said“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day 1,” and promised that in his first year in office, “I will cut the price of energy and electricity in half.” No surprise then that two years on, one poll finds only 13% of voters believe Trump genuinely intends to send Americans $5,000 each.
其次，美国选民目前对总统的厌恶程度难以言过其实。不仅他的总体支持率跌至30多个百分点，而且在一些民调中，多数选民表示不认可他的表现。例如，在最新的“Strength in Numbers/Verasight”民调中，50%的受访者强烈不认可特朗普的表现，而只有15%强烈认可。显然，即使是MAGA基本盘也在努力维持其热情。
Second, it’s hard to overstate just how disgusted the American electorate is with the president right now. Not only are his overall approval ratings in the 30s, but in some polls a majority of voters say they disapprove of his performance. In the latest Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll for instance, 50% of respondents strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, while only 15% strongly approve. Even the MAGA base is apparently struggling to retain its enthusiasm.
从现在到11月，特朗普有一件事可做，那肯定会对美国人的生活产生积极影响，并可能缓解共和党候选人面临的部分压力：结束战争。
There is one thing Trump could do between now and November that would surely have a positive effect on Americans’ lives, and maybe relieve some of the pressure on GOP candidates: End the war.
要找到一位在现代史上像特朗普现在这样被强烈厌恶持续一段时间的总统，你不得不回溯到水门事件时期的理查德·尼克松，或是2008年金融危机期间的乔治·W·布什。
To find a modern president who was disliked as intensely as Trump is now for any length of time, you have to look to Richard Nixon during Watergate or George W. Bush amidst the financial crash of 2008.
此外，并非某个外部事件导致了当前的困境，而是特朗普自己的政策和决定。他的“大而美”法案为富人减税，让数百万人失去医保，而保费却持续上涨。他疯狂的关税和贸易战在其自身条件下就已失败，并被公众所摒弃。他大肆吹捧的宠儿项目，如凯旋门，对民众的日常生活毫无裨益。他对科技行业（特别是数据中心）的持续助威，在政治光谱的各派别中均不得人心。最重要的是，他那场极不得人心的对伊朗战争仍在拖延，推高了油价。
Furthermore, there wasn’t some external event that produced the current malaise; it was Trump’s own policies and decisions. His“big, beautiful” bill cut taxes for the wealthy and kicked millions off their health insurance, while premiums continue to rise His deranged tariffs and trade wars failed on their own terms and were rejected by the public. He touts pet projects like a triumphal arch that will not help anyone in their day-to-day life. His continued cheerleading for the tech industry, particularly data centers, is unpopular across the political spectrum And most of all, there’s his deeply unpopular war with Iran, which drags on as it pushes gas prices up.
特朗普让共和党担忧中期选举将遭遇“惨败” 所有这些营造出一种氛围：选民对特朗普愤怒到了无论新花招本身是否被认为是个好主意，都不太可能改变其投票意向的地步。
Trump has GOP fearing a midterm ‘bloodbath’ It all creates an atmosphere where voters are so angry with Trump that no new gimmick is likely to change their vote, whether they think the gimmick itself is a good idea or not.
他声称伊朗政权将在中期选举一结束就投降——如果你信了这话，不妨现在就开始花你那5000美元的“共和党胜利红利”了。但即便特朗普自己也知道大势已去——而他只能怪自己。
he claims that the Iranian regime will capitulate as soon as the midterms are over — and if you believe that, you might as well start spending your $5,000 Republican victory dividend now. But even Trump knows the die is probably cast — and he has no one to blame but himself. The post Trump’s gimmicks aren’t working with voters anymore MS NOW