作者：Geoffrey Morgan多年来，在美国投资者的投资组合中，美股所面临的来自债券或国债的竞争相对较弱。富国银行的策略师表示，这一时期似乎正走向一个迅速且可能令人痛苦的终结。
By Geoffrey Morgan For years, US stocks have faced relatively weak competition from bonds or Treasuries in investor portfolios. That period looks like it’s headed for a fast, and possibly painful, end, strategists at Wells Fargo say.
在经历了多年的持续买入后，由于两位数的盈利增长远超债务工具提供的相对微薄的票息，股票配置比例相对于债券处于历史高位。该行数据显示，投资者目前约有72%的资金配置在股票上，为1969年以来的最高水平。
After years of relentless buying, equity allocations are sitting at record levels next to bonds, thanks to double-digit earnings growth that has swamped relatively anemic coupons offered by debt instruments. Investors currently have roughly 72% of their funds sitting in equities, the highest level since 1969, the bank’s data show.
在如今需要应对10年期美债收益率升破5%的股市中，这并非一种制胜策略。华尔街各地的策略师表示，他们预计在利率维持在当前水平的情况下，市场对股票的需求将会减少。
That’s not a winning strategy in a stock market that now needs to contend with 10-year Treasury yields rising above 5%. Up and down Wall Street, strategists say they expect to see less demand for stocks while rates persist at these levels.
富国银行首席股票策略师Ohsung Kwon表示：“目前的股票配置并未反映出5%无风险利率的世界。”他补充称，在当前利率水平下，股票和债券的投资比例应更接近典型的60%/40%。
“Equity allocation right now isn’t reflecting the 5% risk-free rate world,” said Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo. The split between investments in equities and bonds should look more like the typical 60%/40% with rates at current levels, he added.
Kwon认为，投资计算结果暗示了一场潜在的“重置”。此前股票配置达到如此极端水平时，标普500指数随后的年度利润增长约为7%。这种盈利增长速度意味着标普500指数的回报率为5%。与此同时，国债提供5%的无风险收益。综合来看，股票相对于债券的超额收益为零。
The investment math, Kwon says, suggests a potential “reset.” Prior instances when stock allocations were this stretched have preceded the S&P 500’s annual profit expansion of about 7%. This pace of earnings growth implies a 5% return for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Treasuries are offering 5% risk free. Add it all together, and the excess return for stocks over bonds is nil.
“我真的没看到那么多增量买家，”Ohsung在谈到股票时说道，并补充称投资者已经对该资产类别过度敞口，而债券目前正提供诱人的回报。
“I really don’t see that many incremental buyers,” Ohsung said of stocks, adding that investors are already over-exposed to the group while bonds are now offering juicy returns.
一种将企业利润与债券收益率进行比较的方法（即美联储模型）得出了类似的结论。彭博汇编的数据显示，标普500指数的盈利收益率（即相对于股价的利润水平）比10年期美债收益率低约1个百分点。
A methodology that compares corporate profits to bond yields, known as the Fed model, points to a similar conclusion. The S&P 500’s earnings yield — how much profits one gets relative to share prices — is about 1 percentage point below the yield on 10-year Treasuries, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
已有证据表明，投资者近期已开始削减股票配置。美国银行近期的一项基金经理调查显示，投资者目前对股票的净超配比例为49%，低于8月底的58%。该调查是在10年期美债收益率升至5%以上之前进行的，该行策略师表示，这一水平将推动更多的债券购买。
There is some evidence already that investors have recently begun trimming their equity allocations. A recent fund manager survey from Bank of America Corp. showed investors are now 49% net overweight stocks, down from 58% at the end of August. That survey was conducted before the 10-year Treasury rose above 5%, and the bank’s strategists say these levels will drive more bond buying.
“结束繁荣最快的方法就是债券收益率飙升，”美国银行投资策略师安雅·谢列欣（Anya Shelekhin）表示。她认为收益率尚未攀升至该临界点，但其团队已建议投资者在第四季度做多债券，她预计届时收益率将达到峰值。
“The quickest way to end a boom is with a surge in bond yields,” said Anya Shelekhin, an investment strategist at Bank of America. She doesn’t believe yields have climbed to that point yet, but the team has recommended investors go long bonds in the fourth quarter, when she expects yields will peak.
然而，股票敞口过高的情况是多年积累的结果。对于该行的私人客户而言，股票配置比例已从2009年的39%上升至目前的66.1%。相比之下，债券配置比例为17.2%，现金配置比例为9.4%——周五发布的数据显示，现金持有量已降至历史最低水平。
The stretched equity exposure, however, have been years in the making. For the bank’s private clients, those allocations have risen from 39% in 2009 to 66.1% now. That compares with 17.2% in bonds and 9.4% in cash — a record low for cash holdings, data released on Friday show.
美联储最新数据显示，股票持有量占美国家庭总金融资产的49%，创下历史新高，高于2008年的21%。作为参考，新冠疫情后的反弹期间，这一比例为41%，而1999年互联网泡沫破裂前为37%。
Equity holdings represent 49% of total financial assets for US households, a record, the most recent data Federal Reserve data show, up from 21% in 2008. For context, the level stood at 41% during the post-Covid rally and 37% before the dot-com crash in 1999.
Empower首席投资策略师玛尔塔·诺顿（Marta Norton）表示，投资者头寸过高，部分原因是股市经历了长期的牛市。投资者买入并持有股票，其价值不断增长，以至于这些持仓现在已大幅超过固定收益和其他资产。美国股市目前的牛市将在下个月迎来四周年。
Part of the excess positioning by investors is a function of the stock market’s prolonged bull runs, said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower. Investors have bought and held equities, which have gained in value to the point that those holdings now massively outweigh fixed income and other holdings. The current bull market for US stocks will reach the four-year mark next month.
“我们刚刚目睹了盈利相对于常态的巨大超额表现，我认为这掩盖了许多问题，”诺顿补充道。
“We’ve just seen such a massive outperformance of earnings relative to the norm that has, I think, covered a multitude of sins,” Norton added.
尽管如此，诺顿认为，美债收益率的上涨将在未来几个月对股市和股票头寸构成挑战，尤其是在未来一个季度，盈利增长的同比表现将面临更严峻的考验。“我认为债券在今天更值得买入，”她说。
Still, Norton sees the advance in Treasury yields will pose a challenge to the equity market and equity positioning in the coming months, especially earnings growth comparisons will face a tougher hurdle in the coming quarter. “I tend to think bonds are a better buy today,” she said.