关键信息：根据马克斯·拉姆齐的报道，乌克兰认为在未来几个月内，通过黑海出口粮食的停火协议不太可能出现。该地区的持续袭击严重削弱了乌克兰的出口能力，这些出口产品对全球粮食供应至关重要。
By Max Ramsay Ukraine sees no positive signs that there could be a ceasefire covering grain exports via the Black Sea in the coming months, as strikes in the region have drastically cut the country’s ability to export products vital to global supplies.
“不幸的是，短期内很难找到解决这一问题的办法，”乌克兰农业部长塔拉斯·维索茨基在布鲁塞尔接受采访时说，“我们必须做好应对当前严峻形势的准备。”维索茨基表示，参与谈判的各方已告知乌克兰，俄罗斯拒绝了基辅提出的所有建议；所有可能的谈判尝试都未能取得任何成果。他计划于周一晚些时候向欧盟官员通报最新情况。
“Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine any possible solutions in the nearest months on this issue,” Ukraine Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said in an interview in Brussels. “We have to really prepare that the situation remains as critical as it is now.”Vysotskyi said Ukraine had been informed by countries facilitating talks that Russia has so far rejected all proposals from Kyiv’s partners, adding that “all of the possible rounds have been tried, and so far none of the results” have been achieved. He was scheduled to update European Union peers on the situation later on Monday.
俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的冲突不断升级，而乌克兰负责全球小麦出口量的四分之一以上。在欧洲农民同样面临极端天气挑战的情况下，这种冲突导致全球粮食价格飙升。本月，有关通过临时停火或暂停袭击来允许粮食出口的谈判为稳定价格带来了一些希望；土耳其便是表示正在努力恢复粮食运输通道的国家之一。
Escalating strikes between Russia and Ukraine, responsible for more than a quarter of the world’s wheat shipments, have pushed up global grain prices at a time when European farmers have also grappled with extreme weather. The possibility of talks around allowing grain exports via a limited ceasefire or moratorium on strikes helped ease prices this month. Turkey was one of the countries that had said it was trying to reestablish a grain corridor to enable these exports.
虽然乌克兰已通过其他途径增加了粮食出口量（目前占所需出口总量的45%），但维索茨基认为这些替代路线最多只能承载50%的农产品出口需求，这意味着本销售季可能有约3000万吨农产品无法出口。
Ukraine has seen an increase in exports using alternatives to the Black Sea, now at 45% of what needs to be shipped. However, Ukraine’s analysis is that a maximum of 50% of agricultural commodities can be exported via these routes, meaning there is a risk that around 30 million tons of agricultural commodities will not be exported from the country this marketing year, Vysotskyi said.
欧盟农业专员克里斯托夫·汉森在本月初表示，欧盟正在探索一切可能的途径来支持乌克兰的粮食出口。
In an interview earlier this month, EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen said the bloc was looking “at all possible lanes” to support grain exports from Ukraine.
乌克兰曾寻求欧盟为其农业部门提供具体支持，超出该集团已提供的广泛财政援助。但维索茨基表示，欧盟委员会——该集团的执行机构——拒绝了为农民提供2.2亿欧元（2.5亿美元）以及建立支持其流动性机制的请求，尽管该国将通过世界银行一笔2.5亿美元的低息贷款获得足够资金。
Ukraine had sought specific support from the European Union for its agricultural sector, beyond the broad-based financial aid the bloc already provides. But Vysotskyi said the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, had denied the request for €220 million ($250 million) for farmers and a mechanism to support their liquidity, though the country would have sufficient funding via a $250 million low-interest World Bank loan.
“这或多或少能让我们有可能撑到新年，”维索茨基说。“但现在我们已经不得不考虑新年过后从春季开始会发生什么，因为形势持续严峻。”乌克兰还在8月请求增加其2027年生物乙醇和糖的欧盟免关税配额，因为它希望增加该集团所需产品的出口。维索茨基说，如果此事顺利推进，该国将寻求增加其他农产品的配额。
“It’s going to more or less provide us a possibility to survive until the new year,” Vysotskyi said. “But now we already have to think what’s going to happen from the spring after the new year, because the situation keeps being critical.”Ukraine also made a request in August to increase its EU tariff-free quotas for 2027 for bioethanol and sugar, as it looks to boost exports of products that the bloc needs. Should this happen without an issue, the country will seek to increase its quotas for other agricultural products, Vysotskyi said.