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德鲁姆克里没有发生暴力,并不意味着对峙的重要性有所降低Absence of violence in Drumcree does not make standoff any less significant

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三十年前,三名罗马天主教儿童——奎因兄弟,九岁的杰森、十岁的马克和十一岁的理查德——在一场汽油弹袭击中丧生,才终于终结了德拉姆克里争端。当时,橙衣会阿尔马郡牧师表示:“没有一条道路值得用生命去换,更不用说三个小男孩的生命了。”

Three decades ago, it took the deaths of three Roman Catholic children – the Quinn brothers, Jason, nine, Mark, 10, and 11-year-old Richard – in a petrol bomb attack to bring an end to the Drumcree dispute. “No road is worth a life, let alone the lives of three little boys,” the Orange Order’s County Armagh chaplain said at the time.

如今回想起来,竟然需要说出这样的话,或许令人难以置信——但那是过去的事了。今天的北爱尔兰已截然不同。

It is perhaps extraordinary to think that this could ever have needed saying – but that was then. Northern Ireland is very different place today.

尽管情绪依然高涨,但周日和周一,35名新教橙衣会成员试图沿加瓦希路——位于阿尔马郡波特达恩德拉姆克里地区以民族主义者为主的主要街道——游行,并未引发暴力事件。

Passions are running high, but the attempt by 35 members of the Protestant Orange Order to walk down Garvaghy Road, a main thoroughfare in a predominantly nationalist part of Drumcree in Portadown, County Armagh, did not lead to violence on Sunday or Monday.

面对数千名站在他们面前的民族主义社区成员,以及命令他们后退的警察防线,橙衣会地区会长奈杰尔·道森得出结论:“没必要无谓地淋湿自己。”他指示成员们回到教堂大厅内避雨。

Faced with thousands of members of the nationalist community standing in their way and a police line ordering them back, Orange Order district master Nigel Dawson concluded: “There’s no point getting wet unnecessarily,” as he instructed members of the order back inside the church hall to shelter from the rain.

周一,每隔半小时,橙衣会成员都会走到警察防线前,但均被布伦丹·格林警督劝返,整个过程和平而充满尊重。

Every half-hour on Monday, the Orange Order members walked up to police lines only to be turned back by Supt Brendan Green, but the process was peaceful and respectful.

然而,旧有暴力方式的缺席,并不意味着德拉姆克里正在发生的事情缺乏意义。历史不会简单重演,尽管希望与历史有时押韵,但更多时候,我们听到的是历史回声的回归。

The blessed absence of the old ways does not make what is happening at Drumcree any less significant, however. History doesn’t repeat itself, and although hope and history sometimes rhyme, more often we hear echoes of history returning to us.

北爱尔兰的分裂以及倾向于犬儒主义的政治姿态,曾被1998年《耶稣受难日协议》所掩盖——当时各方因三十年的“动荡”时期的仇恨与苦难而精疲力竭——但近来这些裂痕已暴露无遗。

The divisions and tendency towards cynical political posturing in Northern Ireland, papered over by the 1998 Good Friday agreement – when all sides were exhausted by the hate and misery of the three decades of Troubles – have been all too evident of late.

这一具体争议无论从哪一方来看都有其合理之处。独立的游行委员会已裁定,沿加瓦吉路行进是允许的。可以说,游行者只是在行使自己的权利。但在游行被禁28年之后,真的有必要走这条路吗?这种挑衅行为究竟对谁有利?

This particular dispute can be reasonably argued either way. The independent Parades Commission has ruled that the march down the Garvaghy Road is permissible. The marchers are simply taking advantage of their rights, it may be said. But is it really necessary to take this road after 28 years of the march being banned? Who is served by the provocation?

争论的细节或许不如争论本身的发生更为重要,也不如它对当今北爱尔兰所说明的问题以及它对未来可能意味着什么更为重要。

The detail of the argument is perhaps less important than the fact that it is happening, and what that says about Northern Ireland today, and what it may mean for the future.

在民族主义者一方,对于就统一爱尔兰举行边境公投的前景,日益增长着一种跃跃欲试的自信。唐纳德·特朗普最近提出统一爱尔兰应当尽早而非推迟,这更是助长了这种情绪。首席部长、新芬党的米歇尔·奥尼尔周一在亲自现身德拉姆克里后表示:“统一派至上和主宰的日子已经一去不复返了。我们不会倒退。”从民族主义社区聚集而来的人群——其中一些人是从贝尔法斯特和德里乘大巴赶来的——似乎令北爱尔兰警察局感到意外。这是一个在时常分裂的民族主义社区内部展现团结的时刻。

On the nationalist side, there has been growing and bristling self-confidence about the prospects of a border poll on a united Ireland. This was only inflated by Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that a unified Ireland should happen sooner rather than later. “The days of unionist supremacy and domination are gone,” said the first minister, Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin, on Monday after appearing herself in Drumcree. “We will not be going backwards.”The numbers gathering from the nationalist community, some of whom were bussed in from Belfast and Derry, appeared to surprise the Police Service of Northern Ireland. It was a moment of unity within an often fractured nationalist community.

出席者中包括科林·达菲和他的兄弟保罗,两人均于2015年被判恐怖指控不成立,还有社会民主工党领袖克莱尔·汉纳,她强烈批评那些动辄以暴力作为解决之道的人。

Those in attendance included Colin Duffy and his brother Paul, who were both acquitted of terror charges in 2015, along with the SDLP party leader Claire Hanna, a vehement critic of those who reach for violence as an answer.

与此同时,对统一派而言,脱欧协议带来的与英国其他地区关系的变化以及人口结构的改变,可以说已使他们对未来明显缺乏信心。

Meanwhile, for the unionists, the changed relationship with the rest of the UK brought about by the Brexit deal and changing demographics has arguably engendered a distinct lack of confidence about the future.

统一派最大政党民主统一党(DUP)的领袖加文·罗宾逊周一声称,首席部长与抗议者一同出现在德拉姆克里,“标准已被打破”。

Gavin Robinson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party (DUP), the largest unionist party, claimed on Monday that “standards have been shattered” by the presence of the first minister with the protesters in Drumcree.

当奥尼尔(O’Neill)与爱尔兰共和国的新芬党(Sinn Féin)领袖玛丽·卢·麦克唐纳(Mary Lou McDonald)抵达抗议现场时,人群高喊着“推翻现状”以及“去他的斯托蒙特(Stormont)”——这些口号指的是北爱尔兰的权力共享机制,该机制旨在促使联合主义者和民族主义者共同合作。

When O’Neill and Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Sinn Féin in the Republic of Ireland, arrived at the protest, it was to chants of “bring it down” and “fuck Stormont”, in reference to power-sharing arrangements in Northern Ireland, structured to make unionists and nationalists work together.

“面对人们对社会基本民主原则的极度蔑视,我们该如何继续前进呢?”罗宾逊(Robinson)质问道;她批评了首席部长试图阻止这场合法抗议活动的行为。

“How we can go forward when there is such a level of disdain for the simple fundamental democratic principles of society?” asked Robinson of the attempt by the first minister to block a lawful march.

很可能,明年北爱尔兰议会选举的临近,以及各方势力试图动员自己的支持者为自己的目标而奋斗,反而加剧了紧张局势。

It is likely that the prospect of elections for the Northern Ireland assembly next year, and the need to rally the faithful to their respective cause, is not helping to calm the rhetoric.

在斯托蒙特(Stormont),前民主统一党(DUP)领袖埃德温·普茨(Edwin Poots)谴责首席部长“严重缺乏礼貌”且“漠视民众的诉求”,因为她拒绝回答有关这场危机的紧急问题。

In Stormont, the speaker, Edwin Poots, a former leader of the DUP, condemned the first minister for her “gross discourtesy” and “contempt” in not coming to answer an urgent question about the crisis.

在这种情况下,人们担心:即便新芬党的领导人仍留在北爱尔兰政府机构中(尽管耳边回响着人群的抗议声),民主统一党也很可能会选择退出政府。

In this context, there is concern that even if Sinn Féin’s leaders, with the crowds’ chants ringing in their ears, do not walk out of the Northern Ireland executive, that the DUP could well do so.

由于北爱尔兰的公共服务体系已陷入崩溃状态,而与威斯敏斯特(Westminster)在预算问题上长期未能达成共识,这种进一步的分裂可能会引发更严重的不稳定局势。

After a prolonged period in which agreement on a budget for Northern Ireland’s collapsing public services has not been found with Westminster, such further fracturing risks a whole new level of instability.

北爱尔兰事务大臣克里斯·布莱恩特(Chris Bryant)周一与加瓦吉路居民联盟(Garvaghy Road Residents’ Coalition)的布兰丹·麦克康奈斯(Breandán Mac Cionnaith)进行了交谈,双方讨论了调解的可能性。在爱尔兰共和国,总理米歇尔·马丁(Micheál Martin)呼吁各方保持冷静:“没有人希望回到过去的分裂状态,也不愿重蹈加瓦吉路(Garvaghy Road)和德拉姆克里(Drumcree)事件中的悲剧。”

The Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Bryant, spoke to Breandán Mac Cionnaith, from the Garvaghy Road Residents’ Coalition, on Monday. The possibility of mediation was discussed, Mac Cionnaith said. Speaking in the Republic, Micheál Martin, the taoiseach, called for cool heads. “No one wants to go back to the past divisions, to past trauma that we experienced at Garvaghy Road, Drumcree, in the past,” he said.

他说:“我呼吁新芬党以及其他各方:现在是时候缓和紧张局势,展开对话,并以理智、基于社区的方式解决问题了。”

“I would say to Sinn Féin and to everybody else: time to dial back now and time to engage in dialogue, and to work this out in a sensible, community-based way.”