作者：谢毅辉（Yihui Xie）由于美国与伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡问题上的僵局持续推高能源成本，并使美联储面临加息压力，黄金价格出现大幅下跌。
By Yihui Xie Gold held a sharp decline as the deadlock between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep energy costs elevated and maintained pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
金价在周一暴跌4%至七周低点后，目前在每盎司4120美元附近徘徊。由于伊朗官员私下表示，在11月美国中期选举前与华盛顿达成协议以结束敌对状态的可能性感到悲观，且美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了他们关于在七天内重新开放这一关键水道的最新提议，油价进一步上涨。
Bullion was trading around $4,120 an ounce, after tumbling 4% on Monday to a seven-week low. Oil extended gains, after Iranian officials privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with Washington before US midterm elections in November, in the wake of President Donald Trump rejecting their latest proposal to reopen the critical waterway in seven days.
在特朗普拒绝该提议后，美国债券市场的抛售潮于周一加剧，这恐将延长战争带来的能源冲击。此次下跌推高了各期限国债的收益率，基准10年期国债收益率创下19年来的新高。这削弱了持有黄金等无收益资产的理由。
The selloff in the US bond market deepened on Monday after Trump’s rejection, which threatens to prolong the war’s energy shock. The decline pushed Treasury yields higher across maturities, with the benchmark 10-year rate rising to a fresh 19-year high. This undermines the case for holding a non-yielding asset like bullion.
自2月底美伊冲突爆发以来，债券抛售规模不断扩大，并在过去一个月加速，通过推高借贷成本为经济注入了新的风险。特朗普政府曾试图通过增加长期债券的回购来缓解这一局面，但利率却持续走高。
The bond divestment building since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February has accelerated over the past month, injecting new risks into the economy by driving up borrowing costs. The Trump administration has tried to ease it by increasing buybacks of longer-dated bonds, only to see rates keep pushing higher.
尽管本月初金价曾触及每盎司4510美元，但9月份仍下跌了约7%。此前，美联储为应对美国顽固的通胀，实施了自2023年以来的首次加息，并暗示了未来进一步加息的可能性。高企的能源价格正加大进一步加息的压力，投资者目前认为10月份加息的概率约为70%。
Gold is down around 7% in September, even after touching $4,510 an ounce early in the month, after the Fed delivered its first rate rise since 2023 to combat sticky US inflation and flagged the possibility of more. High energy prices are adding pressure for more increases, with investors currently seeing the probability of a hike in October at around 70%.
“大量成交量在9月高位附近累积，因此短期内进一步上行将面临显著压力，”浙商银行股份有限公司分析师在一份报告中写道。这通常是因为在更高价位买入的买家往往会在价格反弹时卖出，从而使近期突破难以实现。“重新回到长期的‘美元贬值’主题，需要新的宏观催化剂，”他们补充道。
“A lot of trading volume accumulated near September’s highs, so further upside faces significant pressure in the short term,” analysts from China Zheshang Bank Co. Ltd wrote in a note. This is often because buyers who bought at higher level tend to sell when prices rebound, making near-term breakout difficult. “A return to long-term ‘dollar debasement’ theme will need a fresh macro catalyst,” they added.
美联储理事丽莎·库克周一说，人工智能未来带来的生产率提升可能不足以抵消近期的价格压力，并警告这可能推高整个经济的通胀。数据中心的密集投资也在加剧对能源、建筑业劳动力等共享资源的竞争。她说，过去一年电力和用水成本上涨了约5%。
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that future productivity gains from artificial intelligence may not be enough to offset the near-term price pressures, warning this could drive up inflation across the economy. Heavy data center investment was also increasing competition for shared resources like energy and construction labor — reflecting a roughly 5% jump in electricity and water costs over the past year, she said.
市场将关注周三发布的个人消费支出数据——美联储首选的通胀指标——以及周五的非农就业数据，以寻找利率走向的下一条线索。
Markets will be watching the release of personal consumption expenditure data on Wednesday — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — as well as non-farm payrolls data on Friday for the next clues on the path for rates.
新加坡时间上午8时50分，现货黄金上涨0.1%，至每盎司4,117.60美元。银价几乎持平，报每盎司60.64美元，此前一个交易日曾下跌近6%。铂金小幅下跌，钯金上涨0.2%。衡量美元走势的彭博美元现货指数保持稳定；该指数此前一天上涨0.3%，创下7月29日以来的最高收盘水平。
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,117.60 an ounce at 8:50 a.m. in Singapore. Silver was little changed at $60.64 an ounce, after sliding almost 6% the previous session. Platinum edged lower, while palladium rose 0.2%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was stable after rising 0.3% the day before to the highest close since July 29.