根据贝恩公司（Bain & Co.）的报告，全球人工智能产业需要在2031年前实现每年6万亿美元的年收入，才能证明投资建设全球数据中心的合理性。该咨询公司在其年度全球科技报告中指出，现有的消费者和企业级人工智能服务可能贡献约1.8万亿美元的收入，因此还需要创造4.2万亿美元的新增收入。这些新增收入主要来自自动驾驶设备、机器人技术等新兴领域，以及药物研发、心理健康和能源生产等前沿领域。
By Saritha Rai The global AI industry needs to earn $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify the capital being deployed to build data centers around the world, Bain & Co. said. Existing consumer and enterprise AI services may generate as much as $1.8 trillion of that sum, leaving $4.2 trillion in new revenue that needs to be created, the consulting firm said Tuesday in its annual global technology report. The shortfall likely will come from nascent segments ranging from autonomous machines to robotics as well as emerging fields such as drug discovery, mental health and energy generation, it said.
“该行业需要一场能够超越移动技术和云计算所带来变革的创新浪潮，”该报告的主要作者、贝恩公司全球科技、媒体与电信业务部门主席大卫·克劳福德（David Crawford）表示。“目前人工智能基础设施的建设速度远远超过了实际需求，要实现其可持续发展，全球GDP年增长率需要额外增加约1%。”
“What the industry needs is a wave of innovation that will dwarf what mobile and cloud unlocked,” said David Crawford, the report’s lead author and chairman of Bain’s Global Technology, Media, and Telecommunications practice. “AI infrastructure is being built well ahead of the demand curve and funding it sustainably will require adding approximately 1% to the annual global GDP growth rate,” he said.
贝恩公司的报告指出了当前人工智能发展速度所面临的诸多障碍。以微软（Microsoft）、谷歌（Google，隶属于Alphabet公司）、亚马逊（Amazon.com）和甲骨文（Oracle）为代表的企业正在投入巨额资金用于建设数据中心，以满足人工智能对计算资源的需求。由于英伟达（Nvidia）和SK海力士（SK Hynix）等芯片制造商、网络设备及其他组件的价格飙升，数据中心的规模和成本大约每12到16个月就会翻一番。
Bain’s report highlights the hurdles ahead to make the current pace of AI development sustainable. Companies led by Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Oracle Corp. are investing trillions of dollars in data centers to quench AI’s demand for computational resources. Data center sizes and costs are doubling roughly every 12 to 16 months, in part due to surging prices of chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. and SK Hynix Inc., networking equipment and other components.
与此同时，关于人工智能服务提供商实际回报率的争议仍在加剧。批评者担忧，技术制造商与人工智能开发者之间日益紧密的依赖关系正在推高人们的期望值，而这些高期望值又反过来需要更多的资金投入。
The report comes as debate intensifies around the as-yet elusive returns for AI service providers. Critics worry about an increasingly interconnected web of dependencies between technology manufacturers and AI developers that help to propel lofty expectations that in turn require bigger sums of money.
贝恩公司表示，尽管当前讨论聚焦于员工生产率，但人工智能基础设施的经济效益将需要在生产率提升之外创造数万亿美元的新收入。
While discussions today are fixated on employee productivity, the economics of AI infrastructure will demand trillions in new revenue beyond productivity gains, Bain said.
这家咨询公司预计，到2030年，数据中心支出将达到5万亿美元至6.5万亿美元，新增至少150吉瓦的容量，这将使各国能源资源承受更大压力。贝恩公司称，到2031年，涵盖数据中心、算力以及加速处理器和存储芯片升级的人工智能基础设施年度支出可能高达1.5万亿美元。
The consultancy projects $5 trillion to $6.5 trillion of data-center spending by 2030, adding at least 150 gigawatts of capacity that will further strain countries’ energy resources. Annual spending on AI infrastructure — spanning data centers, computing capacity and upgrades in accelerators and memory chips — may reach as much as $1.5 trillion by 2031, it said.
数据中心开发商目前已经面临变压器、供水和电力供应短缺，以及激烈的当地反对情绪。在美国第二季度，这些反对情绪已导致价值680亿美元的项目被阻止或延期。
Data center developers already face shortages in transformers and water and power supplies, as well as fierce local opposition that’s blocked or delayed $68 billion worth of projects in the June quarter in the US.