– 这是CNBC为中国中央电视台（CCTV）制作的2026年9月29日财经新闻报道脚本。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on SEPTEMBER 29, 2026.
作为全球金融市场的关键定价基准，美国10年期国债收益率在突破关键的5%门槛后持续攀升，这由多重因素共同驱动：市场预期美联储将进一步加息、地缘政治冲突升级引发能源价格担忧、美国政府债务和财政赤字扩大，以及人工智能建设浪潮带来的融资需求上升。
As a critical pricing benchmark for global financial markets, the 10 year US Treasury yield continues to climb after breaching the key 5% threshold, driven by a combination of factors: market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, heightened geopolitical conflict fueling energy price concerns, expanding US government debt and fiscal deficits, and rising financing demands from the artificial intelligence buildout wave.
尽管科技巨头近期呼吁放缓AI发展，但AI基础设施的资本支出仍保持扩张趋势，涵盖数据中心、芯片和发电等领域。在接受CNBC采访时，分析师指出，监管干预和政策讨论可能无法给该行业降温，反而成为扩大AI投资的催化剂。一旦风险边界变得更加清晰，此前持谨慎态度的机构投资者可能更愿意投入资金。因此，由此产生的经济刺激、通胀压力和激烈的资本竞争，可能在明年1月前推动美国10年期国债收益率冲高至6%。
Despite recent calls from tech giants for a slowdown in AI development, capital expenditure on AI infrastructure remains on an expansion path, spanning data centers, chips, and power generation. In an interview with CNBC, analysts noted that regulatory interventions and policy discussions may fail to cool the sector, serving instead as a catalyst for expanded AI investment. Once risk boundaries become clearer, previously cautious institutional investors may prove more willing to deploy capital. Consequently, the resulting economic stimulus, inflationary pressure, and intense competition for capital could propel the 10 year US Treasury yield toward a high of 6% before next January.
本·埃蒙斯 创始人兼首席投资官 FedWatch “6%最初有点像是个数学问题，因为如果你看10年期远期收益率，目前在6%或更高，且这一水平保持了一定的一致性。6%是一个非常可能的情景。” 对于更广泛的美国经济而言，较高的借贷成本给企业融资、消费者支出和购房决策带来了更大压力。作为对利率最敏感的行业，房地产市场首当其冲地承受了这一压力。
BEN EMONSFounder and Chief Investment OfficerFedWatch "6% is sort of a math thing initially because if you look at the 10 year rate discounted forward, it's currently at 6% or higher, and the mark has been somewhat consistent at that level. 6% is a very probable scenario." For the broader US economy, elevated borrowing costs apply heavier pressure to corporate financing, consumer spending, and homebuying decisions. The housing market, being the most interest rate sensitive sector, bears the initial brunt of this pressure.
最新数据显示，美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率达到7.5%，创下自2024年以来的最高水平。
Latest figures show that 30 year fixed mortgage rates in the US reached 7.5%, marking their highest level since 2024.
这种动态不仅削弱了买家的负担能力，也让此前锁定较低抵押贷款利率的房主失去了挂牌或置换房产的动力。买卖双方均陷入观望僵局，进一步拖累了已停滞近四年的美国楼市。为促成交易，部分美国房企不得不通过降价和买低抵押贷款利率来吸引买家，导致本已因高昂原材料、人工及融资成本而受压的利润空间进一步被压缩。
This dynamic not only erodes buyer affordability, but also disincentivizes homeowners who previously locked in lower mortgage rates from listing or replacing their properties. Both buyers and sellers remain trapped in a wait and see stance, further dragging on a US housing market that has been stagnant for nearly four years. To close deals, some US homebuilders are resorting to price cuts and mortgage rate buy downs to attract buyers, squeezing profit margins that are already compressed by high raw material, labor, and financing expenses.
在全球层面，美国国债收益率上升意味着美元计价资产提供更高回报，自然削弱了新兴市场债券对国际投资者的吸引力。
On a global scale, rising US Treasury yields mean dollar denominated assets offer higher returns, naturally dampening the appeal of emerging market bonds to international investors.
数据显示，追踪新兴市场发行的美元及硬通货债券整体表现的彭博新兴市场硬通货综合指数本月下跌2.1%，录得今年3月以来最差单月表现。
Data shows that the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Hard Currency Aggregate Index, a benchmark tracking the overall performance of dollar and hard currency bonds issued by emerging markets, fell 2.1% this month, recording its worst monthly performance since March of this year.
当前，高利率与高油价的共振正在加剧全球市场的风险厌恶情绪，表明新兴市场债券面临的资金外流压力可能还将持续一段时间。
Currently, the interplay of elevated interest rates and high oil prices is intensifying risk aversion across global markets, suggesting capital outflow pressure on emerging market bonds could persist for some time.